Thread by @khodorkovsky_en

Putin's entourage has left Beijing.

Secret weapon deals and failed agreements—here's what really agreed on and what it means for the future.

🧵(1/15)

Putin brought his entire inner circle, including current and former defense ministers Belousov and Shoigu, foreign minister Lavrov, and prominent crony capitalists like Sechin, Timchenko, and Deripaska.

(2/15)

The delegation was so extensive that it became a subject of humor in Russia – with everyone out of the country, people joked about the ease of launching a coup.

(3/15)

Putin and Xi engaged in 2.5-hour talks, covering various topics, including the war in Ukraine and China's potential role as a mediator. However, Xi has shown little inclination to pressure Putin to end the invasion.

(4/15)

While a dozen agreements were reportedly signed with Beijing, they were of minor significance – for instance, Russia agreed to supply China with artichokes and beef offal, but no major breakthroughs were announced.

(5/15)

No solution was found for the issue of cross-border transactions. Due to US sanctions, Chinese banks have rejected about 80% of payments from Russia since late March.

(6/15)

There was also no progress on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, once touted by the Putin regime as a masterstroke to free Russia from its dependence on the European market.

(7/15)

However, what was made public is less important than what was not. According to British intelligence, China agreed to provide Putin with weapons for use against Ukraine.

(8/15)

This development builds upon the "no limits" partnership Xi and Putin declared in 2022, which set the stage for the Ukraine invasion. Putin likely had this declaration in mind when he announced the full-scale invasion days later.

(9/15)

China has been instrumental in sustaining Putin's war effort and undermining the effectiveness of Western sanctions and boycotts, with Beijing's support continuing to grow.

(10/15)

Despite maintaining that it would not arm either side of the war and rebuking Ukraine's Western allies for providing weapons and "fanning the flames of the conflict," China has been fueling Putin's assault with "dual-use" technologies.

(11/15)

Trade between the two countries reached $240bn last year and had already grown by almost 5% by the end of last month. The beneficiary is clear: China accounts for a third of Russia's trade, while Russia makes up just 4% of China's.

(12/15)

If Xi has now decided to supply Putin with arms, it takes the collaboration much further. This development should prompt the West to stop making Ukraine fight with one hand tied behind its back and provide all the necessary support to achieve serious successes on the battlefield.

(13/15)

China's supply of arms to Russia eliminates any hope of Russia exhausting its economy and stockpiles, and being forced to withdraw – only serious Ukrainian successes on the battlefield will suffice.

(14/15)

Letting Putin advance and take more territory in Ukraine sends a clear message to dictators around the world: might makes right, that borders can be redrawn by force. It sets an incredibly risky precedent that democracies shouldn't allow to happen.
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(15/15)

I have decades of experience opposing the Putin regime.

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