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May 28, 2024 26 tweets 9 min read Read on X
In 1942, the U.S. government forcibly removed more than 110,000 ethnically Japanese people from their homes and sent them to internment camps in remote parts of the country.

People are resilient, but losing everything is hard.

How did victims' lives turn out?🧵 Image
First, we need background.

Japanese citizens began arriving to the U.S. in the latter part of the 19th century.

The scale of migration was substantial. By 1942, 40% of Hawaii was Japanese (Hawaii wasn't a state until 1959). Image
This influx of immigrants quickly became a political problem.

1886-1911, more than 400,000 Japanese set out to American lands. Citizens called for an end, resulting in the Gentleman's Agreement of 1907:

The U.S. wouldn't harass its Japanese and Japan would restrict emigration. Image
Immigration from Japan was cut down to virtually nothing from 1924 to 1952, creating a "missing generation" of people and distinguishing the first-generation "Issei" from their American-born "Nisei" children. Image
By 1940, Hawaii had 160,000 or so Japanese residents and the U.S. proper (recall, Hawaii was not a state) had an additional roughly 120,000.

As you can see, the largest portion of them were in California, in both Census and interment camp-derived figures. Image
On December 7th, 1941, Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, resulting in the deaths of 2,008 sailors, 109 Marines, 208 soldiers, and a further 68 civilians and ten others, along with the destruction of almost 200 aircraft, four battleships, and more. Image
With Japan's declaration of war, Issei transformed into enemy aliens on U.S. soil.

The first governmental response was for the FBI to start rounding up community leaders, resulting in the detention of 222 Italian, 1,221 German, and 1,460 Issei men that month. Image
The Ni'ihau Incident that happened after the bombing of Pearl Harbor also started to cement into American's minds the problem of enemy aliens.

Shigenori Nishikaichi crash landed his Zero after the attack and two Japanese island residents agreed to help him. Image
The Haradas (an Issei couple) and Ishimatsu Shintani helped Shigenori get his equipment + papers + torch his plane while kidnapping three native Hawaiians

The Hawaiians fought back. They killed Nishikaichi, Yoshio Harada killed himself, and Shintani and Yoshio's wife were caught Image
Around that time, FDR and Attorney General Biddle made statements calling for Americans to respect the rights of minorities including enemy aliens.

But shortly after that on February 19, FDR signed Executive Order 9066, allowing the military to set up exclusion zones. Image
The EO didn't specify anything for Japanese Americans, but it didn't have to, because Japan was busy frightening American civilians and military personnel.

On February 23rd, Japan bombed an oil field near Santa Barbara. Image
From November 1944 to April 1945, the Japanese had been launching Fu-Go balloon bombs that ended up dropping incendiary munitions in California and fourteen other states.

The Japanese also attacked a baker's dozen U.S. ships off the California coast. Image
Americans were so afraid of a Japanese invasion that they inflicted damage on themselves in the "Battle of Los Angeles."

The fear was rightful: The Japanese had subs 20 miles from California on December 24, 1941 and California only had sixteen modern airplanes protecting it! Image
Leveraging the powers granted by the EO, the military split the West Coast into two military areas and began distributing signs encouraging Japanese people to go East. Image
The voluntary migration scheme failed and the War Relocation Authority was set up to administer ten camps scattered across the U.S., for 110,000 Japanese Americans living on the West Coast

These relocated people had to get out quickly, selling possessions at "fire sale" prices Image
It's from this background that the analysis begins:

Arellano-Bover used Census, Japanese-American Research Project, and War Relocation Authority data to identify interned Japanese Americans so data on their socioeconomic outcomes could be put to use. Image
If we look at home ownership after the war, we see that the interned Japanese were definitely negatively impacted:

In the period 1946-52, they had significantly lower homeownership rates than Japanese Americans who weren't interned.

But look at 1953 to the '60s. Recovery? Image
Homeownership is about an asset. If we look at income data, we actually see that the Japanese who would go on to be interned had lower incomes than the non-interned Japanese in 1940, and equal incomes by 1950-60.

So the internment... raised incomes?Image
The answer to this seems to be "Yes."

Not only did the Japanese who were interned recover, they caught up despite starting further behind the Japanese who weren't interned.

This result is actually very robust!Image
So we have to ask Why?

Let's check attitudes towards work.

Bupkes. The interned and non-interned Japanese don't differ in work attitudes, so they couldn't get ahead that way.Image
What about attachment to Japan and Japanese culture?

Sansei (third-generation Japanese) were just as likely to have Japanese-speaking grandparents and citizenship/Americanness-wise, if anything, the interned were a bit less American.

This probably isn't it either. Image
Here's the meat:

In 1940, Japanese on the West Coast were disproportionately likely to be farmers and unskilled laborers, whereas the Japanese who migrated East and were thus less likely to be interned worked more often in skilled occupations. Image
This migration-related occupational stratification must not have been very selective by ability, because the interned/non-interned converged.

They also converged, in part, because the interned used the experience to move and change jobs. Image
The camps had more socioeconomic diversity than the places internees came from, so they were exposed to a diversity of opportunities and their family ties binding them to certain occupations were broken.

There were frictions the camps help them to overcome!
It was common to hear stories about internees entering poor and vowing to make it big when they got out, like this pictured one.

And that's what they did: interned Japanese Americans overcame the experience and wound up, miraculously, better off for it. Image
If you're interested in learning more about this amazing example of human resilience in the face of discriminatory adversity, go read the paper, here: cambridge.org/core/journals/…

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Dec 2
Society is cognitively stratified:

Smart people tend to earn higher educations and higher incomes, and to work in more prestigious occupations.

This holds for people from excellent family backgrounds (Utopian Sample) and comparing siblings from the same families! Image
This is true, meaningful, and the causal relationship runs strongly from IQ to SES, with little independent influence of SES. Just look at how similar the overall result and the within-family results are!

But also look at fertility in this table: quite the reverse! Image
Source: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

And to learn more about this general phenomenon, see: cremieux.xyz/p/intelligence… (I've added this citation to this article!)
Read 5 tweets
Nov 25
After this article came out, several people responded, alleging that a cultural model made more sense.

Clark has a point-by-point response🧵

Let's start with the first thing: parent-child and sibling correlations in status measures are identical—hard to explain culturally! Image
The reason this is hard to explain has to do with the fact that kids objectively have more similar environments to one another than to their parents.

In fact, for a cultural theory to recapitulate regression to the mean across generations, these things would need to differ! Image
Another fact that speaks against a cultural explanation is that the length of contact between fathers and sons doesn't matter for how correlated they are in status.

We can see this by leveraging the ages parents die at relative to said sons. Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 24
The idea:

The internet gives everyone access to unlimited information, learning tools, and the new digital economy, so One Laptop Per Child should have major benefits.

The reality:

Another study just failed to find effects on academic performance. Image
This is one of those findings that's so much more damning than it at first appears.

The reason being, laptop access genuinely provides people with more information than was available to any kid at any previous generation in history.

If access was the issue, this resolves it. Image
And yet, nothing happens

This implementation of the program was more limited than other ones that we've already seen evaluations for though. The laptops were not Windows-based and didn't have internet, so no games, but non-infinite info too

Still huge access improvement though
Read 4 tweets
Nov 22
What is the effect of having a parent get locked away on a kids' own risk of eventually committing crime?

As it turns out, basically nil.

Having a mother or a father locked away doesn't significantly increase risk, and indeed, may reduce it if it happens at an early age. Image
This is relative to no incarceration, so the result should be interpreted as... pretty shocking!

Similarly, we can look at the effects of longer versus shorter parental sentences.

There's seemingly little effect of the length of time parents are incarcerated for. Image
Compare those within-family estimates from above with these between-family results from the same study, period, cohort, etc.

Notice: the apparent 'effects' between families are significant stratified in the same way.

That's an important distinction! Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 20
Why?

I doubt the answer is weight loss. Consider 2 other drugs for diabetes: DPP-4 and SGLT-2 inhibitors

GLP-1RAs are associated with less Alzheimer's vs. DPP-4is:

But not SGLT-2is:

Neither generates much weight loss, but SGLT-2is match GLP-1RAs on glycemic benefitsImage
Image
So, at least in this propensity score- or age-matched data, there's no reason to chalk the benefit up to the weight loss effects.

This is a hint though, not definitive. Another hint is that benefits were observed in short trials, meaning likely before significant weight loss.
We can be doubly certain about that last hint because diabetics tend to lose less weight than non-diabetics, and all of the observed benefit has so far been observed in diabetic cohorts, not non-diabetic ones (though those directionally show benefits).

Anyway, trials needed!
Read 4 tweets
Nov 20
El Salvador is now a safe country

The reason why should teach us something about commitment

The government there has previously attempted crackdowns twice in the form of mano dura—hard hand—, but they failed because they didn't hit criminals hard enough

Then Bukele really didImage
In fact, previous attempts backfired compared to periods in which the government made truces with the gangs.

The government cracking down a little bit actually appeared to make gangs angrier!

You'd have been in your right to conclude 'tough on crime fails', but you'd be wrong.
You have to *actually* enforce the law or policy won't work. Same story with three-strike laws, or any other measure

Incidentally, when did the gang problems begin for El Salvador? When the U.S. exported gang members to it

This was bad for El Salvador:

Read 5 tweets

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