Thread by @joni_askola

1/11 russia is expected to experience some of its most significant losses of the war during the next six months.

2/11 russia is conducting simultaneous attacks on multiple fronts. The country has an ample supply of manpower and is prepared to sustain substantial daily casualties in order to make progress. Daily videos depicting unsuccessful russian attacks are being observed.

3/11 While Ukraine's shell situation is not perfect, it has improved significantly. Moreover, the country has access to a large number of FPV drones. Although Ukraine's fortifications are still incomplete, they have shown improvement compared to a few months ago.

4/11 Ukraine has recently successfully integrated GBU-39 SDB glide bombs onto its Mig29 jets, enabling them to deploy a large number of gliding bombs to the front. These bombs are cost-effective and available in significant quantities.

5/11 The deployment of F16 jets and additional air defense systems will also compel russia to exercise greater caution with its air support, rendering russian ground offensives more hazardous and expensive.

6/11 russia's increasing reliance on infantry in its recent attacks, particularly those north of Kharkiv, may be attributed to the challenges in advancing with armored vehicles due to mining and drones. This also leads to higher russian casualties.

7/11 Ukraine is facing an extremely challenging situation. In the coming months, its priorities will include mobilizing and training personnel, strengthening defense lines, and awaiting military support, all while striving to repel russia's daily offensives.

8/11 Time is running out for russia, and it is acutely aware of this. russia is currently initiating attacks from various directions, with a major emphasis on the east. The operation in the north of Kharkiv is aimed at prompting Ukraine to relocate its troops to that area.

9/11 If Ukraine can withstand the next few months without substantial territorial losses and casualties, while also mobilizing, strengthening defensive lines, and awaiting military assistance, it will be in a significantly improved position by the end of the year.

10/11 The russians' readiness to endure staggering losses is driven by their deep-rooted imperialism and unwavering confidence in their ability to win the war. In time, they will come to realize that victory is unattainable and that this war has been a monumental failure.

11/11 Sources:



kyivindependent.com/tag/russian-lo…

https://x.com/ArturRehi/status/1792144478842556677

https://x.com/ArturRehi/status/1788938860799390122

kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-rec…