1/11 russia is expected to experience some of its most significant losses of the war during the next six months.
2/11 russia is conducting simultaneous attacks on multiple fronts. The country has an ample supply of manpower and is prepared to sustain substantial daily casualties in order to make progress. Daily videos depicting unsuccessful russian attacks are being observed.
3/11 While Ukraine's shell situation is not perfect, it has improved significantly. Moreover, the country has access to a large number of FPV drones. Although Ukraine's fortifications are still incomplete, they have shown improvement compared to a few months ago.
4/11 Ukraine has recently successfully integrated GBU-39 SDB glide bombs onto its Mig29 jets, enabling them to deploy a large number of gliding bombs to the front. These bombs are cost-effective and available in significant quantities.
5/11 The deployment of F16 jets and additional air defense systems will also compel russia to exercise greater caution with its air support, rendering russian ground offensives more hazardous and expensive.
6/11 russia's increasing reliance on infantry in its recent attacks, particularly those north of Kharkiv, may be attributed to the challenges in advancing with armored vehicles due to mining and drones. This also leads to higher russian casualties.
7/11 Ukraine is facing an extremely challenging situation. In the coming months, its priorities will include mobilizing and training personnel, strengthening defense lines, and awaiting military support, all while striving to repel russia's daily offensives.
8/11 Time is running out for russia, and it is acutely aware of this. russia is currently initiating attacks from various directions, with a major emphasis on the east. The operation in the north of Kharkiv is aimed at prompting Ukraine to relocate its troops to that area.
9/11 If Ukraine can withstand the next few months without substantial territorial losses and casualties, while also mobilizing, strengthening defensive lines, and awaiting military assistance, it will be in a significantly improved position by the end of the year.
10/11 The russians' readiness to endure staggering losses is driven by their deep-rooted imperialism and unwavering confidence in their ability to win the war. In time, they will come to realize that victory is unattainable and that this war has been a monumental failure.
1/6 This simple fact is vatniks' kryptonite: russia has not succeeded in invading any of the 23 regional capital and special status cities that Ukraine controlled at the onset of the full-scale war.
2/6 When feeling concerned or uncertain about the situation in Ukraine, or when engaging in discussions with individuals who are dumb enough to support russia despite the circumstances, it's valuable to recall this fact. This single argument is compelling on its own.
3/6 No further elaboration is required for this fact. russia's invasion of Ukraine stands as a dismal failure that will serve as a textbook example of strategic blunders in military academies for decades to come.
1/7 Make russia lose again: Ukraine's victory does not depend on launching large offensives, but on conveying to russia that its initial strategic objectives are unattainable.
2/7 Currently, Ukraine is confronted with notable challenges, but its mobilization is anticipated to yield results by the year's end. In the short term, russia holds the advantage, whereas Ukraine is positioned for success in the long term.
3/7 By the year's end, Ukraine will have increased manpower, more weapons, additional shells, and improved fortifications, while russia will deplete its stocks of Soviet equipment over the next 24 months. 80% of russia's current production is based on refurbishing these stocks.
1/8 russia is not significantly restraining itself and would escalate its strikes on Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure if it had the resources.
2/8 While russia may not be utilizing all of its striking resources to target civilians, this does not imply that it is not purposefully inflicting as much terror as possible upon them.
3/8 russia is striving to establish a perverse genocidal equilibrium by terrorizing Ukrainians with its bombings to assert total control, while allocating a significant portion of its resources to military targets out of necessity.
1/9 Practically friendless and rejected: during Putin's 25 years of rule, russia has never experienced a level of isolation even close to the one it currently faces.
2/9 russian propaganda is extremely effective, often asserting that russia is not isolated. Although it is true that russia is not entirely isolated, it is markedly more isolated than before its failed invasion, or during any other period in Putin's 25 years of rule.
3/9 On March 2, 2022, the UN General Assembly overwhelmingly adopted a resolution, with 141 votes against 5, rejecting the russian federation's aggressive invasion of Ukraine and calling for the immediate withdrawal of its forces in compliance with international law.
1/10 Masters of restrictions: the Biden administration is now perceived as the weak link, especially as the majority of other allies are beginning to permit Ukraine to launch strikes on russian territory.
2/10 Several of Ukraine's allies have recently authorized Ukraine to use the weapons they provided to strike russian territory.
3/10 It's truly regrettable that it took a russian offensive from the north of Kharkiv for the West to remove this pointless restriction. However, it's better late than never.
1/9 A failed full-scale war is expensive: russia is raising taxes to finance its unsuccessful invasion and genocide of Ukraine. Ordinary russians will finance the war they wanted.
2/9 russia plans to raise taxes on high earners and businesses to finance its genocide in Ukraine. Government spending exceeding revenue has led to rare annual budget deficits, burdening russians with the task of financing the war they wanted.
3/9 russia's loss of profitable energy sales to Europe and heightened military expenditures compelled the country to tap into its sovereign wealth fund and seek loans from state-owned banks to address the deficit over the past two years.