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Eric Balchunas Profile picture
@EricBalchunas
May 29, 2024 • 1 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Good sign. Prob see rest roll in soon. Then prob one more round of fine-tune comments from Staff. End of June launch a legit possibility altho keeping my o/u date as July 4th

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More from @EricBalchunas

Eric Balchunas Profile picture
Jan 13, 2024
LATEST: With two days in the books, the Nine Newborns have taken in +$1.4b in new cash, overwhelming $GBTC's -$579m of outflows for net total of +$819m. $IBIT now leading pack w/ half a bil, Fidelity close second tho. The newborns' $3.6b in trading volume on 500k indiv trades (1.2m incl $GBTC) is very impressive as is the 20bp avg prem.Image
Note: Is it poss GBTC outflows are more bc of accounting? Yes, and even probably but we can only go w the data they send us and this is the latest. Imp thing is that in order for an ETF category to grow you need volume and low fees. These have both in spades = great foundation for long term growth. I've no effing idea what drives btc price day to day but what I do know is if something had an 80% run in 6mo I'd EXPECT a correction and wouldn't cry about it.
That's it. Going for a jog now and then to my kid's bball game now. Happy Saturday everyone.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Balchunas Profile picture
Mar 7, 2023
INTERESTING: So the SEC lawyer came out strong w opening argument blah blah, but the judge interrupted her SEVERAL TIMES with a bunch of very educated q's re futures and spot relationship, Teucrium filing etc. SEC seems a bit rattled by this the pro-Grayscale-y judge and her q's.
Judges are now double teaming the SEC with q variations of this main point: how can you guys argue that manipulation in spot wouldn't effect the futures, thus the surveling sharing agreement of futures isn't really meaningful, which is ur whole point in disaproving spot etf.
JUDGE: "If we were to agree with the petitioners (Grayscale) would the commission look to approve spot ETFs or go back on it's approval of bitcoin futures ETFs?" SEC lawyer says she 'can't say' and quickly pivots to legal talk. Interesting judge asked tho.
Read 9 tweets
Eric Balchunas Profile picture
May 19, 2022
$SPY is up 120% since then, that's 11% annualized- more than the historical avg and that's WITH this year's carnage factored in. I'm firmly in the 'we were due, this is part of the deal who gives a sht I'm def not selling my low cost index funds bc of some scary headlines' camp.
What's funny is some of the biggest fear mongers and scary headline writers are buy and hold index fund investors. In their defense tho bearishness and fear = clicks. It would be kinda cool if everyone's PAs were public tho. Things would get more optimistic fast.
Basically 90% of FinTwit is buy and hold index fund investors obsessing over every little market event in order to pass the time so compounding can do its magic.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Balchunas Profile picture
May 18, 2022
'NightShares' ETFs updated their prospectus, launch likely soon. The fee will be 55bps and the tickers are $NSPY & $NIWM. The ETFs will buy $SPY and $IWM at the close and then sell at the open so as to only be exposed to market outside of trading hours.
Will be interesting to see if these succeed. Feel like it could go either way. While I was hoping for some more inspired tickers like $DARK $OWL or $ZZZ these could work better given they ride the brand notoriety of $SPY and $IWM and it makes clear what it does.
Background: there's been studies that have found buying at close and selling at open has worked well. One recent one from Bespoke found doing this returned 670% since 1993 vs -11% for doing the opposite. (altho if you just held SPY since then you up 1500%)
Read 4 tweets
Eric Balchunas Profile picture
May 14, 2022
$ARKK just posted its biggest week of inflows in over a year with $534m (Top 1% among ETFs). Now on 5th straight week of inflows, crazier tho its taken in nearly $2b since Feb 11th, during which its lost 39%. I've obv been vocal re ARK's staying power but even I'm surprised.
Here's what this looks like zoomed out. You can see this was biggest week since the Glory Days but also note the in and out style of the flows, it's a now bonafide trading tool for many, which is one reason it will hang around long term vs say other high flying MFs of era past.
Note: yes, a small amount of these flows could be create to lend or $SARK or $TARK but all those two small to account for the big flow figures here.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Balchunas Profile picture
Feb 14, 2022
Just glancing through the many comments from ppl to the SEC re converting $GBTC to an ETF and 95% are in favor of it and most using real names and pointing to the stupefying fact that futures ETF ok but spot not. eg:
This one was pretty interesting, someone put their whole live savings in $GBTC (or at least that's what they saying). Aside, many like this one think the SEC is protecting the rich instead of avg investors.
Here's one pointing out how the stock market can be just as manipulated and volatile as crypto
Read 6 tweets

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