Eric Balchunas Profile picture
Senior ETF Analyst for @Bloomberg. Dad. Rutgers grad. Gen X-er. Author of "The Institutional ETF Toolbox" & "The Bogle Effect.” Co-host of Trillions & ETF IQ.
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Jan 13 4 tweets 2 min read
LATEST: With two days in the books, the Nine Newborns have taken in +$1.4b in new cash, overwhelming $GBTC's -$579m of outflows for net total of +$819m. $IBIT now leading pack w/ half a bil, Fidelity close second tho. The newborns' $3.6b in trading volume on 500k indiv trades (1.2m incl $GBTC) is very impressive as is the 20bp avg prem.Image Note: Is it poss GBTC outflows are more bc of accounting? Yes, and even probably but we can only go w the data they send us and this is the latest. Imp thing is that in order for an ETF category to grow you need volume and low fees. These have both in spades = great foundation for long term growth. I've no effing idea what drives btc price day to day but what I do know is if something had an 80% run in 6mo I'd EXPECT a correction and wouldn't cry about it.
Mar 7, 2023 9 tweets 3 min read
INTERESTING: So the SEC lawyer came out strong w opening argument blah blah, but the judge interrupted her SEVERAL TIMES with a bunch of very educated q's re futures and spot relationship, Teucrium filing etc. SEC seems a bit rattled by this the pro-Grayscale-y judge and her q's. Judges are now double teaming the SEC with q variations of this main point: how can you guys argue that manipulation in spot wouldn't effect the futures, thus the surveling sharing agreement of futures isn't really meaningful, which is ur whole point in disaproving spot etf.
May 19, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
$SPY is up 120% since then, that's 11% annualized- more than the historical avg and that's WITH this year's carnage factored in. I'm firmly in the 'we were due, this is part of the deal who gives a sht I'm def not selling my low cost index funds bc of some scary headlines' camp. What's funny is some of the biggest fear mongers and scary headline writers are buy and hold index fund investors. In their defense tho bearishness and fear = clicks. It would be kinda cool if everyone's PAs were public tho. Things would get more optimistic fast.
May 18, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
'NightShares' ETFs updated their prospectus, launch likely soon. The fee will be 55bps and the tickers are $NSPY & $NIWM. The ETFs will buy $SPY and $IWM at the close and then sell at the open so as to only be exposed to market outside of trading hours. Will be interesting to see if these succeed. Feel like it could go either way. While I was hoping for some more inspired tickers like $DARK $OWL or $ZZZ these could work better given they ride the brand notoriety of $SPY and $IWM and it makes clear what it does.
May 14, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
$ARKK just posted its biggest week of inflows in over a year with $534m (Top 1% among ETFs). Now on 5th straight week of inflows, crazier tho its taken in nearly $2b since Feb 11th, during which its lost 39%. I've obv been vocal re ARK's staying power but even I'm surprised. Here's what this looks like zoomed out. You can see this was biggest week since the Glory Days but also note the in and out style of the flows, it's a now bonafide trading tool for many, which is one reason it will hang around long term vs say other high flying MFs of era past.
Feb 14, 2022 6 tweets 3 min read
Just glancing through the many comments from ppl to the SEC re converting $GBTC to an ETF and 95% are in favor of it and most using real names and pointing to the stupefying fact that futures ETF ok but spot not. eg: This one was pretty interesting, someone put their whole live savings in $GBTC (or at least that's what they saying). Aside, many like this one think the SEC is protecting the rich instead of avg investors.
Feb 4, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
New note re how Bond funds could be the Fed's Achilles Heel. They ok with shiny object selloff, but bonds a dif story and bond funds/ETFs just had worst stretch of outflows since March 2020 bc returns red across board. If outflows grow could see liq dry up, poss redemption halts. While bond MFs are bigger risk of mass panic IMO bc of redemption halt poss, ETFs are in mix and a good indicator. Check out how wide and deep the bloodbath is. I mean everything is down (nowhere to hide really) and seeing outflows. Extrapolate this out and it gets fugly..
Feb 2, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
Cramer reverses, likes $ARKK again after 15% surge. You’ve been warned. Have a note coming out tmrw predicting that we will see an Inverse Cramer ETF filed soon (likely actively mgd) to exploit his uncanny reverse Midas touch.
Oct 26, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
Valkyrie just filed for a XBTO Levered BTC Futures ETF, which will provide 1.25x exposure to the bitcoin reference rate, can hold futures, swaps, options and forwards. Ticker $BTFX 1.25x is only diet leverage altho still can suffer from vol drag, altho could make up for roll costs if btc is on nice run. Altho that's not dependable. Either way prob used by traders either way.
Oct 26, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
$BITO is merely the first step on 5yr-ish journey that will lead to cheap, liquid total market crypto ETFs (poss even from Vanguard) that will hoover up billions in advisor assets (bc that's exactly what happened w every other asset class). New note from me and @JSeyff today.. If I were selling against $BITO I'd def point out the roll issues, exp ratio (altho I do think has good value for traders) but it is temporary. Cheap is coming bc this is what ETFs do, check out this track record (and yeah smart-beta not tech not asset class i know)
Oct 13, 2021 4 tweets 3 min read
JUST IN: ARK just filed for a bitcoin futures ETF via 21Shares and via whiteAlpha Architect white label (huge win for them). Already has ticker too: $ARKA (yet another good sign SEC gonna approve) Big win for white label issuer @alphaarchitect @RyanPKirlin @jvogs02 @patrickcleary01 to work with @CathieDWood and @OpheliaBSnyder. Strong indie partnership. I'm sure $ARKA will be an instant force to be reckoned with when it launches.
Oct 12, 2021 8 tweets 3 min read
WHERE WE STAND: the SEC has a few days left to delay on bitcoin futures ETFs. If hear nothing, the first ETF filed (ProShares) will be free to launch on 10/18 as the 75 days req will have passed. That said, this is an unusual situation but no news is prob good news at this point. THAT SAID, the crypto crowd may be overestimating the demand for these ETFs. It's a big step no doubt but we see only $4b in first 12mo (and some think that's too high!) but that's just 5% of crypto fund aum, 3% of bitcoin futures, and 1% of bitcoin mkt cap and 1% of all ETF flow
Sep 29, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
New filing for "The Gen Z ETF" Holds Gen Z stocks that are used by Gen Z or reflect their progressive values. "Gen Z is essentially a digital generation, who does not know a world before the Internet" Here's the Gen Z Scoring System:
Sep 29, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
The Bitcoin futures mutual fund that launched 2mo ago only has $15m in aum, VERY LOW considering the pent up demand. Here's a look at first 43 days of $BTCFX vs $BTCC (physical) in Canada (whose mkt is 27x smaller btw). Not sure if MF or futures is problem but poss bad sign.. The lack of interest is also despite the fact that it tracks spot bitcoin really well (which is arguably welcome news for futures etfs). I added $GBTC so you could see the dif. You'd think this would get more looks. I'm a little stunned frankly.
Sep 20, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
$SPY volume (the People's Fear Gauge) was over $70b today, well into the freak out zone. The last time $SPY traded this much was March 2020. Altho it's had a couple spasms since and nothing much came of it. The key is whether this volume is sustained vs one-off. Tomorrow imp. $UVXY traded a ton too, most this year.. about $3b, which is 2x what it has in aum, ha.
Sep 15, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
Bitcoin Futures ETFs are about halfway through the 75 days it takes for SEC approval of a 40 Act fund. Here's earliest date they could (and are likely to be IMO) approved based on when they filed: Note: the ProFunds Bitcoin Strategy Mutual Fund was launched 77 Days after filing. So these dates are not exact exact, but prob close IMO (altho I've been wrong handicapping this race before so.. )
Aug 23, 2021 6 tweets 3 min read
There have been many 'Xerox' moments in the ETF industry but the GOAT has to be Nuveen filing for what would have been first bond ETF in 2000 and then balking bc worried about cannibalization/revenue. @tpsarofagis uses them in note today as case study for aspiring entrants. Not to mention how balking chased away Bruce Bond and Hooten/Fulten who set up PowerShares and Claymore. Not a stretch to say had CEO had better vision, Nuveen could have been bigger than BlackRock. Good case study for all the legacy asset mgrs entering biz.
Jul 1, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
Out with a note today predicting that $VTI (not $IVV or $VOO) will knock off $SPY in assets within 5yrs and then remain King of ETFs for decades to come. Not exactly going out on limb as it is curr 3rd biggest but it is still a whopping $130b behind $SPY. $VTI has taken a net $100b more than $SPY in past 3yrs.. check out this uptick in flow-age. Plus, its ability to take in cash in down markets (which have to come at some point, right?) will help it gain a lot of that ground when bull mkt subsidy is non-factor.
Jun 28, 2021 6 tweets 3 min read
BOOM: ARK files for a bitcoin ETF (in collab with 21Shares). This would be bitcoin ETF filing #12. Image While semi-shock, kinda makes sense as Cathie is on the board of 21Shares, which is a progressive bitcoin ETP issuer in Europe. They get US penetration and ARK can use own fund in their active ETFs. This pod/thread has good background on 21Shares ICYI:
May 18, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
Ironically, the $MAGA ETF is crushing since Biden won, up 45%, double SPX and Dow, easily beating RSP, SUSA. It just holds all the right the stuff rn (industrials, energy, financials, value & no tech/comm) thx to strategy of screening for cos that donate the most to GOP.. Here's the relative sector differences with the S&P 500, which was poison under Trump but gold under Biden. What a world.
Mar 9, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
There's outright feeding frenzy going on for value ETFs rn, which have taken in about $5b in past week (that's a good month) and $20b YTD (nearly an ann record 10wks in). All in all 80 value ETFs have taken in cash. Here's a look at where the money is going $EFV $VTV $VLUE $IWN Interesting (and yet kinda predictable) most of the cash is going to the watered down value ETFs even tho the pure stuff is popping WAY MORE. Here's a look at the Top 4 Value ETFs in our "intensity rank" vs $IWD & $VTV which rank near bottom.