I’ll just summarise (long post) my thoughts on the celeb bullshit.
Over the last 4 days coincidentally a number of celebrities have all launched memecoins.
This has raised the debate on whether this is a positive (onboarding) or a negative (pump and dump) for the space.
Historically celebrity involvement has always been a terrible sign. There isn’t any project in operation that would be deemed a success. They all went to 0, some in hours, some in days, the majority not even making it to months.
You should take it that all celebrities are using the current very popular buzzword of “memecoin” to make a quick cash grab. The same went for simply “crypto” in past cycles and “NFT”s most recently. It snowballs with more and more people seeing the opportunity and rushing to grab the bag.
If a celebrity immediately launches a coin, I don’t care who they are, they should be told to fuck off.
If a celebrity launches a coin and says a few buzzwords on how much they love crypto they should be told to fuck off.
They should not be given a platform AFTER they’ve come to the space with a coin.
It’s predatory, we’re giving them a voice and they’ve set up with exactly the same intentions as previously. People are and deserve to be pissed.
Then it comes to the more productive side which is “what if we should actually trust these celebrities?”
Then come to the table WITHOUT a token to promote, do your time, show some understanding, ask questions in a productive manner, learn, get involved, join spaces. Don’t be a greedy disingenuous cunt.
People were asking “well how do we get these celebs onboarded?” - why are they any different to us?
A celebrity would do so much better for themselves if they came to the table saying “the dog wif a hat is cute so I bought some” - that would actually resonate.
Just buy crypto, explore the space, be a part of the culture. If you can’t or haven’t done that I can’t trust you and I have to assume you have the worst intentions.
A celebrity’s onboarding process is no different to what any of us went through. We buy, we get fucked, we buy more, we find a community, (we get addicted), we buy more, we survive.
There’s no positives from the current environment we’re simply providing people with a platform to fuck people over and profit from their own names.
You can’t retrospectively fit adoption or a positive on to a situation that has started with a predatory launch.
There might be an argument that we can use this as an opportunity for adoption, but it isn’t from the current situation.
@cobie talked about risk as an evaluation method and I think that’s also very true. If you’re just doing something without risk (aside from reputation - which for many of these “celebrities” is entirely irrelevant anyway) then it’s not worth anything.
Athletes paid in crypto, celebrities with involvement in projects are far more worthy of discussion than these passing visitors.
Fuck the cash grabbing token launching D-list celebrity tourists.
I want people who want to shoot the shit about crypto, people who have some skin, who have some time, and who are a net positive for the space.
Extraction is not adoption. We’ve done this dance too many times.
I guess this is really around the positive/negative association and my views on the current climate.
When it comes to money, make money trading whatever you want to trade, that’s not for me to comment on. If you find opportunity you take it.
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One of my strongest held beliefs is that the continued dilution of memecoins is one of the best bullish catalysts for $DOGE.
>DOGE is a memecoin, I buy
>Oh these new meme coins outperform DOGE
>Wow there's now millions of memecoins on millions of chains
>I will just buy DOGE
What's happened over time is that we've diluted to a huge degree.
Initially you had:
DOGE
If you wanted a lotto ticket, "DOGE to $1!" that was your play.
With the rise of $PEPE and others there was a decision to make. Now of course on-chain was still continuing throughout this time but it was a little more niche.
$PEPE caught the attention of the masses and you'll remember many said "why ever take exposure to DOGE anymore"
In trading, for the majority, the more information you look to gather, the more indicator usage you rely on, the more data points you consider, puts you further from the intellectual path you believe you're following and deeper into the middle of the curve.
Simplicity.
Knowledge is sometimes a curse.
The more we know in trading actually causes our decision making to become less clear.
Analysis-paralysis takes hold.
We feel as though we SHOULD look for more supporting info, we dive into data we have no idea about but it makes us sound more informed.
Let's take a little dive into the $ETH price action and determine whether or not we're at a psychological extreme that means we should be long, or if the market truly is the loser we all think it is.
🧵
At time of writing, ETH sits +62% up in 2023.
For comparison:
SOL +480%
BTC +121%
MSTR +242%
AVAX +90%
NVDA +250%
It's been an incredibly poor performer and would be more suited to the bottom of a list of investable markets right now.
But there have been glimmers of hope for $ETH. We've seen a couple of flashes where ETHBTC doesn't continue it's death-spiral and instead offers some hope for what might be a turnaround point.
However, and unfortunately, each of these times has proven to be a local top.
In every uptrend there is that sell off that catches people out.
Conditioned into buying dips (as they should), people bid too early and haven't spotted the signals from HTFs that this is one they should sit out.
IMO that's where we are, I think this one is deeper. 🧵
So what does that mean?
I think the HTF is more "ready" for a correction than at any other point we've seen so far, I think that the signs of weakness are there after a huge run.
Big HTF divergences without a playout, I want to see those resolved.
I still want to bid, but I need to think about spreading those bids around a little bit more and not jumping in at the first sign of a sell off which has worked so well previously.
This time is a little different in that regard for me.
One of the most dangerous trading mindsets to fall into is:
"I believe [insert price move here] is going to happen soon."
The psychological impact is very strong.
I'll dive a little deeper into TUNNEL VISION TRADING.
🧵🧵
We've all had it before.
"Oh I think a big move is incoming"
"Oh this resistance looks like it's going to break soon"
"Damn the volatility has really slowed down, huge move coming"
"We're going to breakdown really soon here, looks so weak"
"Yeah, this is really close now"
What we begin to do is drive up anticipation of an event, a move, a sign of strength or weakness in the market.
This increase of anticipation does a couple of things to our trading, via our approach and from how we begin to allow our subconscious to drive our actions.