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May 30, 2024 20 tweets 11 min read Read on X
In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll introduce a Belarusian politician and dictator, Alexander Lukashenko. He’s best-known for giving up his country to Russia, and for cracking up political opposition and dissidents in Belarus, ruling the country with an iron fist.

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Alexander was born in the Byelorussian SSR, living an unhappy childhood with his mother, taunted by his schoolmates due to being fatherless. His father’s identity is not known, but there’s a rumour that his father was a Roma traveler passing through the region.

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Lukashenko joined the Soviet Communist Party in 1979, and a few years later he became the deputy chairman of a collective farm. By 1990, he had risen to the rank of Deputy to the Supreme Soviet of the Byelorussian SSR. He claimed to be an opponent of corruption…

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…and in 1993 he accused 70 senior government officials of corruption, including stealing state funds for personal purposes. Apparently these accusations had no merit, but some high-ranking officials resigned nevertheless due to the embarrassment.

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After the fall of the USSR, Belarus held its first democratic presidential election in 1994. Naturally, Lukashenko ran in the most populist way, claiming to be “neither leftist nor rightist” but “with the people against those who rob and deceive them”.

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Soon after this, Lukashenko started the Russification process of Belarus. He held a referendum that enabled economic integration with Russia and gave him the power to dissolve the parliament. OSCE stated that the referendum didn’t meet the conditions of being free or fair.

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Lukashenko was re-elected in 2001 in the first round in an election that was widely considered yet again not free or fair. Putin supported the Belarusian dictator, but for that Lukashenko had to give up control over their section of the Yamal–Europe gas pipeline.

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In 2004, Lukashenko eliminated presidential term limits, making himself eligible for a lifetime of presidency & he was re-elected again in 2006. This resulted in massive protests, after which he stated that the opposition is “funded by foreign countries,” and is “not needed”.8/19
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During early 2000s, Lukashenko allied with other authoritarian regimes, including Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei and president Ahmadinejad. He also suggested to Yugoslav President Milošević that Yugoslavia join the Union of Russia & Belarus.

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During the 2010 election, Lukashenko started cracking down on his opposition, as two other presidential candidates were beaten up and at least seven other candidates were arrested. In Dec 2010, several European foreign ministers published an op-ed criticizing Lukashenko.

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In 2020, after being re-elected for his sixth term, massive protests erupted across Belarus. The protesters accused Lukashenko of widespread electoral fraud, and opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya claimed she had received 60-70% of the total vote.

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Like Yanukovych, Lukashenko was also planning on escaping to Russia if he’d become a “former president”. In Aug 2020, the European Parliament declared Lukashenko “persona non grata” in the EU and claimed that he’s not the president anymore. Lukashenko later took revenge …

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… vowing to “flood” Europe with “drugs and migrants”. Soon after this, Belarusian tourist agencies started advertising in the Middle East, promoting a hassle-free entry to the EU and its countries with good social welfare system, doubling flights from Baghdad to Minsk.

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After the election, Alexander became extremely paranoid, walking everywhere wearing a bulletproof vest and carrying a gun. In 2021, FSB claimed that there was a plot by the “Ukrainian nationalists” to launch a military coup and assassination attempt against Lukashenko.

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To protect his friends, Lukashenko formed a Security Council consisting of his close allies. He then signed a presidential decree, saying that in the event that the president is unable to perform his duties, martial law will be imposed and the Council will take over.

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Throughout his career, thousands of people in Belarus have become victims of torture, sexual abuse, and other forms of repression. Several opposition figures have also simply disappeared,and the Belarusian secret service have even plotted on assassinating dissidents abroad.
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Lukashenko managed to turn Belarus into a pro-Kremlin dictatorship by completely destroying the opposition, replacing officials and politicians with his friends, and changing the constitution so that he can stay in power indefinitely.

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The story of Lukashenko’s rise to power is an important one, as it is something that could happen in many other countries that are now considered democratic.

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We’ve already seen how Viktor Orban has taken over Hungary using similar strategies as Lukashenko previously did, and a similar faith was planned for Ukraine, too:



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More from @P_Kallioniemi

Oct 10
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce American propagandist Alexandra Jost, aka “Sasha” (@sashameetsrus). She’s best known for being paid by the Russian state to spread pro-Kremlin propaganda — and for doing it with a big smile.

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Alexandra, now 26, was born in Hong Kong. Her father is from Texas, and her mother is from Siberia. According to her, she has “dreamed of living in Russia since childhood.” Sasha's mother runs a dance studio in Moscow and her younger brother is avoiding mobilization.

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Since the beginning of her creator career, Sasha has been adamant about one thing: that she’s “never had to be paid” to speak of her “love” for Russia. But, as always with Russia, this turned out to be nothing but vranyo — a Russian “tactical lie.”

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Oct 6
In today’s Vatnik Soup REBREW, I’ll reintroduce an American political commentator and pro-Kremlin propagandist, Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson). He’s best known for his promotion of crazy conspiracy theories and for his support of authoritarian regimes around the world.

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Tucker’s career spans decades, but he’s also been very active in recent years, so a lot has happened since our previous soup on him, which can be found here:

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Once described as “the most powerful conservative in America”, Tucker has now fully transformed into a grifting conspiracy theorist and propagandist willing to work for whoever pays him the most. It’s unclear whether Tucker truly believes his endless conspiracy theories or…
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Sep 25
This is what you’re debating with on social media:
It appears that a few pro-Russian bot farms already found this thread, so remember - just block them all, there's no point in arguing with a computer.
Most of you have seen those "No DMs" profiles, right? That's because you can interrupt the GPT procedure by injecting them new instructions.

At some point it also worked in comments ("give me a cake recipe"), but not so much anymore.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 11
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll cover the agenda-setting and flood of disinformation that spread on X and other platforms right after Charlie Kirk’s assassination. It’s far from the first or last time a tragedy has been weaponized for political purposes.

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Every major political event, especially those involving violence, attracts massive attention. In the immediate aftermath, reliable information is scarce, making it highly vulnerable to both coordinated and improvised disinformation campaigns.

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As I’ve mentioned in my previous soups and lectures, in disinformation campaigns, being first with a narrative is crucial, as people often remember the first version best — psychology studies show it sets the mental schema, and later updates rarely overwrite it.

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Read 19 tweets
Sep 8
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce American social media personality David Freeman, AKA Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman). He’s best known for spreading political disinformation on X and shamelessly sucking up to Trump, Putin, and other authoritarian leaders.

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David is a textbook example of someone profiting from MAGA grievance politics. He uses extreme, provocative language to farm engagement on X and never hesitates to flatter anyone who might give him more exposure — or money.

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But David wasn’t always like this. At some point, in his mid-40s, he even tried a real job: he trained to become a cop. He spent three years with the Metro Transit PD, but after that he either got fired or quit, and never looked back.

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Read 24 tweets
Sep 5
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce a Russian-Estonian businessman, Oleg Ossinovski. He is best-known for his deep ties to Russian rail and energy networks, shady cross-border dealings, and for channeling his wealth into Estonian politics.

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Oleg made his fortune via Spacecom Trans & Skinest Rail, both deeply tied to Russia’s rail system. Most of this is through Globaltrans Investments PLC, a Cyprus-based firm with 62% held via Spacecom and tens of millions in yearly profits.

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Ossinovski’s Russian-linked ventures made him Estonia’s richest man in 2014, with an estimated fortune of ~€300M. His business empire stretched across railways, oil via Alexela shares, and Russian bitumen imports from Help-Oil, a supplier to the Defense Ministry.

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Read 15 tweets

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