Ian Ellis Profile picture
May 31, 2024 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Admiral Paparo’s reaction after going back & forth with the longest-serving Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. at #SLD24 🧵

“You’re speaking as if all the panelists here want to fight. We are the life insurance policy against fighting. We have children in uniform. And that is the very last thing that we do.

Deterrence is our first duty. The assumption somehow that all of us want to fight, & you are the lone human being on this panel that wants peace — if that is the point you're making, my dear friend, that is not the case.”

Thread with a few clips & quotes:
Admiral Paparo, Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, was part of a panel with Cui Tiankai, who was the longest-serving Chinese Ambassador to the U.S., at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.

“We’re sitting on a panel called deterrence & reassurance. And the very first statement that we made was that deterrence is our first duty... we want peace every bit as much as you do.”
Paparo was responding to this commentary from Tiankai, who said “having two major military blocks confronting each other, with very high risk of real war or even nuclear wars — is that a right approach?”
“I certainly understand you. I'm not questioning your personal intention or your willingness, your devotion to peace. I have no question about that. But I remember Dr. Henry Kissinger told me time and again that the First World War started without anybody planning for it.

So we have to warn against that. Despite all the good intentions — things could still go wrong.”
“Dr. Kissinger told me two months before he died: I approve of what you're doing. And I think you should be as strong as you possibly can until such time as you have the ability to have a more constructive bilateral relationship.”
Last year at Shangri-la, China’s Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu shook hands with U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin in a “surprise exchange,” but refused direct talks. A month or two later, Li disappeared from the public eye, & formally stripped of his titles in October. Image
During the panel discussion, Paparo referenced the Pacific Century:
On day two of #SLD24, the U.S. Secretary of Defense responded to a question from a Chinese PLA Colonel in the audience (and got a round of applause):

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More from @ianellisjones

May 2
🚨 China dispatched 546* PLA aircraft around Taiwan in April, the highest monthly total of 2025 & most since August

Nearly 1,800 PLA aircraft have been detected operating nearby year-to-date (+48% yoy), with 1,200+ crossing into Taiwan's ADIZ (+184%)

New heatmap with @OSINTNW: Image
Year-to-date, PLA incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in 2025 continue to run significantly higher than 2023 and 2024. Image
China wasn't fooling around on 1 April when they announced exercise Strait Thunder 2025A, taking advantage of favorable weather conditions to "close in on Taiwan from multiple directions" and execute one of the PLA's largest blockade drills to date. 135 PLA planes were detected over 2 days.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 18
American strategic bomber fleet out in full force 🇺🇸

• 4x USAF B-1B Lancer bombers deployed to Japan in support of first Bomber Task Force mission, marking a historic visit

• 6x B-2 Spirit stealth bombers forward deployed to Diego Garcia continue strike ops against the Houthi Image
More info on the B-2 bomber deployment:
A Bomber Task Force (BTF) deployment of USAF B-1B Lancer aircraft, Airmen and support equipment from the 9th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron, Dyess Air Force Base, Texas, arrived at Misawa Air Base, Japan, on 15 April. (PACAF) Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 12
New @jointstaffpa map shows the flight paths of Chinese (red) + Russian (yellow) military aircraft operating near Japan, Taiwan, + South Korea in the past year.

Japan scrambled 704 times in response, with two-thirds (464) due to Chinese aircraft. 3x as many PLA drones detected. Image
704 scrambles in FY2024 (1 April to 31 March) is a modest 5% (+35) increase over the prior period. Image
More detail on location and type of aircraft: Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 3
During exercise Strait Thunder-2025A, the Chinese PLA released several maps and visuals of Taiwan, some marked with target icons and depicting key locations burning and under attack.

Quick compilation (and more info below):
Here’s everything that happened (as it was happening):
Read 4 tweets
Apr 1
BREAKING: China launches joint military exercises around Taiwan, practicing a “blockade on key areas”

On 1 April, PLA Eastern Theater Command deployed Army, Navy, Air Force, & Rocket Forces to “close in on Taiwan from multiple directions.”

- Sea-air combat readiness patrols
- Joint seizure of comprehensive superiority
- Assault on maritime & ground targets
- Blockade on key areas & sea areas

“It is a stern warning & forceful deterrence against ‘Taiwan Independence’ separatist forces.”

The PLA released a theme poster called “Closing In: Sinister Moves of Taiwan Separatists Courting Disaster Upon Themselves.”
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command began conducting joint military exercises around Taiwan on Tuesday, 1 April 2025, according to an announcement by Senior Colonel Shi Yi, spokesperson for the theater command. Image
Image
Image
Why is China doing this now and what are these exercises designed to do? @WarintheFuture explains:
Read 13 tweets
Mar 30
Six USAF B-2 Spirit stealth bombers — 1/3 of America’s fleet — forward deployed to Diego Garcia over the last week 🇺🇸

The Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group (CSG) continues strike operations against the Houthi. Carl Vinson CSG, en route to the Middle East, is 1-2 weeks out. Image
A comprehensive review of U.S. strike operations against the Iran-backed Houthi in Yemen, which began on 15 March and continued every day since:
A detailed thread by @TheIntelFrog tracking the deployments and air activity:
Read 8 tweets

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