Ian Ellis Profile picture
May 31, 2024 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Admiral Paparo’s reaction after going back & forth with the longest-serving Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. at #SLD24 🧵

“You’re speaking as if all the panelists here want to fight. We are the life insurance policy against fighting. We have children in uniform. And that is the very last thing that we do.

Deterrence is our first duty. The assumption somehow that all of us want to fight, & you are the lone human being on this panel that wants peace — if that is the point you're making, my dear friend, that is not the case.”

Thread with a few clips & quotes:
Admiral Paparo, Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, was part of a panel with Cui Tiankai, who was the longest-serving Chinese Ambassador to the U.S., at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.

“We’re sitting on a panel called deterrence & reassurance. And the very first statement that we made was that deterrence is our first duty... we want peace every bit as much as you do.”
Paparo was responding to this commentary from Tiankai, who said “having two major military blocks confronting each other, with very high risk of real war or even nuclear wars — is that a right approach?”
“I certainly understand you. I'm not questioning your personal intention or your willingness, your devotion to peace. I have no question about that. But I remember Dr. Henry Kissinger told me time and again that the First World War started without anybody planning for it.

So we have to warn against that. Despite all the good intentions — things could still go wrong.”
“Dr. Kissinger told me two months before he died: I approve of what you're doing. And I think you should be as strong as you possibly can until such time as you have the ability to have a more constructive bilateral relationship.”
Last year at Shangri-la, China’s Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu shook hands with U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin in a “surprise exchange,” but refused direct talks. A month or two later, Li disappeared from the public eye, & formally stripped of his titles in October. Image
During the panel discussion, Paparo referenced the Pacific Century:
On day two of #SLD24, the U.S. Secretary of Defense responded to a question from a Chinese PLA Colonel in the audience (and got a round of applause):

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More from @ianellisjones

Dec 8
Confirmed today: The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, currently sailing west in the Pacific on a surge deployment, chopped into U.S. 7th Fleet.

Amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA 7) entered the South China Sea and recently stopped in Da Nang.

New INDOPACOM snapshot: Image
ABECSG arrives in the region amid heavy Chinese PLA Navy activity:
Lincoln + Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 21 moved from 3rd to 7th Fleet sometime between 4 and 8 December, per DVIDS. Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
Dec 6
As of yesterday, Reuters reports that 90+ Chinese ships are operating in the region - down from 100+ earlier this week - surpassing China's "mass naval deployment in December last year" in the "largest maritime show of force to date."

A high-level visual (notes + sources below): Image
“The Chinese ships have massed in waters stretching from the southern part of the Yellow Sea through the East China Sea and down into the contested South China Sea, as well as into the Pacific, according to four security officials in the region.

Their accounts were corroborated by intelligence reports from a country in the region, which detailed the deployment. Reuters reviewed the reports on condition it did not name the country.

As of Thursday morning, there are more than 90 Chinese ships operating in the region, coming down from more than 100 at one point earlier this week, the documents showed.

The operations exceed China's mass naval deployment in December last year that prompted Taiwan to raise its alert level, the sources said.”
The Hainan amphibious task group was last spotted ~500nm north of Palau. Australia is closely tracking the ATG but it’s unclear how far south the group will transit. @SinoTalk unpacks why the PLA might conduct a second circumnavigation op and what it would look like:
Read 7 tweets
Nov 15
Mapping potential military targets in Venezuela

Yesterday, the U.S. announced Operation Southern Spear to "remove narco-terrorists from our hemisphere." With the Ford carrier strike group now on station in SOUTHCOM, the U.S. could launch land strikes at any time.

w/ @SA_Defensa Image
"Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine returned to the White House on Friday for a second consecutive day of deliberations centered on potential military action in Venezuela, as U.S. forces in the region prepared for possible attack orders.

It remains unclear if President Donald Trump has decided to pursue such an escalation, though high-level discussions over whether to strike Venezuela — and how — have been underway for days...

An administration official said 'a host of options' have been presented to the president." (WaPo)
Special thanks to @SA_Defensa, he’s one of the best in the business.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 10
Many moving pieces in SOUTHCOM as the Ford Carrier Strike Group steams toward the Caribbean & POTUS considers striking land targets in Venezuela.

Visualizing U.S. force posture, w/ illustrative Tomahawk Land Attack Missile & Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile strike packages: Image
On 24 October, the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group (GRFCSG) and embarked carrier air wing were directed to the U.S. Southern Command area of responsibility. Open source flight tracking data indicates its journey across the Atlantic is likely underway. @MT_Anderson
@MT_Anderson MV Ocean Trader is back in the southern Caribbean. For specific ship locations scroll @MT_Anderson’s timeline
Read 5 tweets
Sep 1
SOUTHCOM Snapshot: Potential strike package with a TLAM (Tomahawk Land Attack Missile) loadout via @vcdgf555

POTUS has options. Image
The U.S. has deployed a considerable naval and expeditionary force to the Caribbean (U.S. Southern Command/4th Fleet AOR), providing POTUS with a wide range of military options to use against Venezuela or other non-state actors in the region. Catch up on everything that’s happened:
"The IWO ARG – 22nd MEU(SOC) is America’s 9-1-1 force—lethal, capable, and adaptable—ready to respond to contingency missions around the globe. This force operates 24/7, reassuring our Allies and partners; deterring our adversaries; keeping the world’s oceans free and open in accordance with international standards; and projecting power on a global scale through sustained operations at sea."
Read 4 tweets
Aug 25
Update on U.S. Navy deployments to SOUTHCOM:

- USNI identified the guided-missile cruiser assigned to the task force, USS Lake Erie (CG 70), now operating in U.S. 4th Fleet
- IWOARG is underway en route to SOUTHCOM: USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7) + USS Fort Lauderdale (LPD 28) left Norfolk yesterday; USS San Antonio (LPD 17) departed today
- USS Gravely (DDG 107), USS Jason Dunham (DDG 109), and USS Minneapolis-St. Paul (LCS 21) are on station in the Caribbean; USS Sampson (DDG 102) is still south of Panama
- The fast attack sub remains unidentified, but several have been active off the east coast in August

More info and sources below.Image
Read 7 tweets

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