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May 31, 2024 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
In this war, timely aid and permission to strike are playing a key role. Ukraine must not be limited by weapon types or target locations. Delays or restrictions risk missing a critical window of opportunity, prolonging the war.🧵Thread about consequences and missed opportunities: Image
2/ These images show Russian concentrations of forces, camps, and field repair bases on the border with Ukraine. All these images have two things in common: by 2024, these sites have moved and dispersed, and none were targeted before their deployment to the frontlines Image
3/ It's fair to assume that many of these forces have been destroyed or damaged by now. However, the extent of casualties and damage they caused beforehand is unknown. This could have been avoided in 2022 and 2023 if Ukraine had permission and weaponry for strikes. Image
4/ Are there any valuable targets left? Yes, there are still valuable targets in areas bordering Kharkiv Oblast. However, Ukraine will predominantly deal with company and battalion-level threats rather than neutralizing entire regimental combat capabilities with few strikes. Image
5/ Ukraine should conduct strikes at the full range of provided weapons, with clear restrictions like civilian targets or nuclear facilities. Valuable targets remain in Rostov, Voronezh, and Oryol Oblasts, similar to those shown here, which won't be shared now for opsec reasons. Image
6/ Into the third year of this war, it's evident that these restrictions only cost Ukraine lives and territories. The aim of this thread isn't merely to criticize the strategy, but to show why such restrictions are damaging and urgently require to be openly removed by the West
7/ Thank you for reading. Our visibility has recently dropped significantly. Please help by liking, and sharing the first message of this thread to boost visibility. Your comments are just as welcomed, as they greatly aid with the algorithm.

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More from @Tatarigami_UA

Apr 1
There’s been a lot of discussion about the potential threat FPV drones could pose to US forces on the ground, with some going as far as claiming that American troops would suffer heavy casualties from FPV drones. That’s possible, but it’s also worth questioning the assumptions:
2/ First, it’s not clear to what extent Iran has actually trained and prepared its ground forces for large-scale use of small drones. Even relatively decentralized militaries still operate within ORBAT and logistics. So far, there isn’t strong evidence of systemic changes within the Iranian army to support widespread FPV deployment.
3/ Second, we’ve seen relatively little FPV usage from Iran-supported groups like Hamas or Hezbollah, despite continuous war with Israel. A few examples have emerged from Iraq, but we’re talking about a handful of videos at most. That’s not a level of a large-scale implementation
Read 7 tweets
Mar 30
昨日、ロシア大使館主催のイベントに複数の政治家が出席しました。私が所属するオープンソース情報機関「Frontelligence Insight」は、ウクライナ戦争だけでなく海外でのロシアの活動も継続的に調査してきました。今回はその知見をもとに、ロシアの影響工作について日本の皆さんにお伝えします Image
2/ まず基本から。ロシア大使館の職員の多くは、ロシア対外情報庁(SVR)の関係者です。外交官パスポートを持つことで外交特権が与えられ、警察のチェックなど通常の監視を受けずに活動できます。
3/ 同じく、ロシアの武官事務所も例外ではありません。派遣されている武官は全員、参謀本部情報総局(旧GRU)のメンバーです。彼らは主に軍事情報の収集を担っています。
Read 14 tweets
Mar 16
With an uncertain battlefield position, Russia has intensified hybrid operations to shape European public opinion. A key element is the spread of narratives portraying Ukraine as using “energy blackmail” against Europe, often echoed by politically sympathetic actors. 🧵Thread: Image
2/ Since the full-scale invasion began, Russian missile and drone strikes have targeted Ukraine’s energy system, damaging power plants, gas facilities, and transmission networks nationwide. Ukraine has lost about 11.5 GW of capacity, with damage reportedly exceeding $24.8 billion
3/ The war has also affected energy transport infrastructure. Ukrainian oil facilities have been attacked more than 400 times since the invasion began. On 27 January 2026, a strike damaged equipment working for the Druzhba pipeline near Brody in western Ukraine.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 12
Leaked internal files from Moscow reveal that Russia’s ruling party, United Russia, keeps intelligence-style dossiers on its own politicians. They document corruption facts, criminal ties, and personal vulnerabilities, information used to manage Russia’s politics

Thread 🧵: Image
2/ United Russia is the political party that dominates Russia’s parliament and regional governments and serves as the main political vehicle of Putin.

Leaked documents from the party, published by @dallasparkua and @256CyberAssault, reveal details of an internal vetting process
3/ Meet Evgeniy Gnedov, who oversees the vetting of candidates for various lawmaking bodies - from local assemblies to the federal parliament.

A longtime security official, he spent decades inside the Federal Penitentiary Service of Russia, eventually rising to a senior role Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 9
Russia’s war in Ukraine has increasingly become a war of drones, but artillery still plays a key role on the battlefield. Newly obtained documents from 2014 to 2025 show that Russia continues to modernize its artillery production using industrial machinery from Europe. 🧵Thread: Image
2/ In a joint analysis, Frontelligence Insight and the @dallasparkua company reviewed hundreds of internal documents from Russian defense contractor Zenit-Investprom and found that Plant No. 9, a maker of artillery barrels and tank guns, went through major upgrades in 2025 Image
3/ Six facilities within the Uralmash industrial zone were found to be undergoing modernization, including planned delivery of industrial machinery from several European countries. Several workshops were dedicated to work on the Armata project and the Koalitsiya SPG. Image
Read 9 tweets
Feb 2
As we approach a point marking the beginning of the war’s 5th year, it is time to discuss how we assess the war’s overall dynamics, strictly from a military standpoint. One method many analysts use is the pace of territory capture. However, this methodology has a serious issue🧵:
2/ Generally, this is not a bad method of analyzing battlefield dynamics, as the history of wars shows far more cases of states advancing along frontlines or into enemy territory before a war ends in their favor than the opposite. The devil, however, lies in the details
3/ Putting aside other domains of war, such as economics and socio-politics, battlefield dynamics are often judged by metrics like casualty rates and square kilometers of controlled territory. This can produce a distorted picture, a problem I informally term the “Sahara Fallacy”
Read 8 tweets

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