Having gotten the actual jury instructions (thank you @KingMakerFT), it now comes clear what DJT was charged with/convicted of. Most of the reporting on this has been wrong because reporters don’t understand the law.
He was charged with 34 counts of violating NY penal section 175.10, a falsification of books & records offense that becomes a felony if you do it with intent to cover up a second crime. 👇🏻
Bragg’s office said & the judge clearly instructed the jury that the second crime was NY code section 17-152, a misdemeanor conspiracy statute prohibiting promoting the election of any person by “unlawful means.”
The three options the judge gave the on which he said they did not have to be unanimous were for the “unlawful means.” This is what he instructed:
So:
1. Federal election violations 2. Tax violations 3. Additional books & records offenses.
The law may well support that the jury did not have to be unanimous on the “unlawful means.” It’s a debatable point.
But most of the reporting about what the jury was actually told was not accurate. They were clearly instructed as to what the second crime was.
But they had to decide for themselves in what manner that statute was violated.
This is not to say that there aren’t significant problems with the case. There clearly are.
But the general reporting about the “second crime” not being identified is not very accurate.
And, even if the jury did not have to be unanimous on the unlawful means, there are problems with two of the three options they were given.
1. The federal election violation theory is probably preempted by federal law, as @KingMakerFT has vigorously argued.
@KingMakerFT 2. It’s hard to see how tax violations could ever “promote” someone in an election.
@KingMakerFT 3. The books and records violations were poorly explained to the jury & also seem to have causation issues. How is that promoting a person into office? It’s maybe covering it up afterward, but that’s a different thing.
@KingMakerFT And even if books and records violations suffice, a court of appeals won’t be able to tell if the jury used only that theory or not because the verdict doesn’t say. If the verdict can’t be based on the other two, then that’s likely grounds for reversal of the conviction.
@KingMakerFT Obviously a major issue is the notice & opportunity to be heard (due process) that DJT got (didn’t get) of the theory. In my view, this situation rises to the level of a constitutional violation. But here I’m just setting out what the theory was because the reporting was so poor.
@Agent_Mondello @KingMakerFT They raised the preemption in that motion too, @KingMakerFT
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House update. As we know the Republican took control yesterday with 2 non-California seats. Since then 2 more seats have resolved; 1 for Ds, 1 for Rs. These were tossup seats.
There are now 6 races left. Alaska's at-large seat and 5 CA races. Right now it stands: R219 to R210.
Of the 6 remaining races, Rs will almost certainly win the AK race.
3 of the CA races that are D leaners - 1 is still w/in 1%, 1 is 2.4%D, and 1 is 2.5%R.
So, Rs will likely take 1, maybe 2 of these races.
The last 2 CA races are tossup ones - they are both tight races; less than 1% difference, with about 15% left to count. They have see-sawed back and forth, & could go either way here at the end. We'll see.
Best case scenario: Rs take 4 of the remaining 6.
Worst case scenario: Rs take only 2 of the 6.
These liberal loons are lucky that Trump ISN’T the kind of person who would illegally & unconstitutionally use the powers of his office to target his enemies & critics, because some of them actually fucking deserve it.
They won’t like having accountability imposed on them within constitutional limits either, but that’s too fucking bad.
Fortunately for them, our love (& DJT’s) for the Constitution will protect them from what some of them did to him.
It’s a disgusting smear of him & us that these Leftists claim the Right of Center will act like the fascists they fantasize us to be & that they actually are.
18. Montana (Daines)(R) 19. New Hampshire (Shaheen)(D) 20. New Jersey (Booker)(D) 21. New Mexico (Lujan)(D) 22. North Carolina (Tillis)(R) 23. Oklahoma (Mullin)(R) 24. Oregon (Merkley)(D) 25. Rhode Island (Reed)(D) 26. South Carolina (Graham)(R)
If you’re a traditionalist & planning to vote tomorrow, as I am, be sure to have a plan.
Get on your official state election site today & double check the opening & closing hours of the polls (& the address if it’s new to you.) Put that in your phone or write it down.
Don’t let the day get away from you because of other things. Plan to go at a specific time & plan around it.
But pick out two times during the day when you could go, in case stuff happens tomorrow & you have to change your schedule around.
Kids tomorrow? Arrange w/your hubs, partner, their dad, etc. ahead of time -tonight- so both of you can vote while the kids are being watched.
Or ask a friend or relative, or hire a babysitter for right after school.
My personal view is that the Lichtman keys are the best tool for predicting the outcome of an election. They cover the things that actually factor into why people vote as they do.
That being said, I don’t always agree with how Lichtman scores the keys.
For example, this year he claims 8 of the keys favor Harris (scored as “trues”), which means she should win.
But when I score them, I get at a minimum 6, & more fairly 8, & more aggressively 10, as “false,” which would mean a Trump win.
Accordingly, I think DJT wins this year.
For reference, in 2020, Lichtman had Biden comfortably winning, but on my scoring, I had Trump & Biden teetering on one key - it could go either way, which I interpreted as a super close race - as it turned out to be.