Thread by @TrentTelenko

Ukrainian plans for an A2AD bubble over Crimean logistics date back to the end of the 2014-2015 ATO.

The Vilkha GMLRS family, the Neptune ASCM, the Hrim/Grom TBM and Korshun GLCM were being engineered to provide that capability

1/

https://twitter.com/exit266/status/1796251090293506324

The 2016 era planned Ukrainian A2AD munitions capabilities were to be as follows:

Vilkha 300mm GMLRS 180 km,
Neptun derivative GLCM/ALCM 300+ km,
Hrim 2 TBM ~400 km,
Korshun GLCM [a Tomahawk GLCM lookalike] at 1000+ km.

3/

The PSU Su-24MR [FENCER E] was to be given a long range Shtyk side looking radar (SLAR) to play "Mini-JSTARS," as well as 100 km long range visual band cameras, to be a "ISR-strike complex."

4/

Only the Vilkha GMLRS in 70km and 120km versions and the Neptun ASCM were built in any numbers by Ukraine before February 2022.

It was likely Putin's fear of the full Ukrainian A2AD capability being fielded that drove his invasion timing.

5/

Ukrainian OWA Drone/Propeller cruise missiles are filling most of the Neptun & Korshun deep strike roles.

Meanwhile Ukraine's unplanned for USV's are shouldering most of the anti-ship role of the Neptun.

6/

The US GMLRS has replaced the Ukrainian Vilkha GMLRS family and, finally, ATACMS is filling the Grom/Hrim 2 slot.

Ukraine has in 2024 the range of A2AD capabilities it's 2016 doctrine called for to shut down Crimea as a Russian forward base.

And it is doing so.

7/7 End

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