Exponential, Distilled Profile picture
Jun 3, 2024 16 tweets 5 min read Read on X
14 Key Lessons From @GCRClassic (pt. 2)

GCR is one of the best traders in crypto history.

> Shorted top of $DOGE & $LUNA
> Shorted top of 21' metaverse
> Bought the cycle bottom in Nov. 2022

To trade like him, you must learn from him.Image
2/ GCR's Advice For Traders:

GCR is all about the grind.

His advice? Go all in when the market's on your side.

The potential gains from giving it your all during peak conditions are simply too good to pass up.Image
3/ GCR, a Contrarian At Heart:

GCR's secret?

He's a contrarian at heart, often betting against the crowd.

He's inspired by George Soros, frequently citing Soros's ideas on reflexivity and contrarianism.Image
4/ News Headline Trading Tips:

GCR focuses on how markets react to headlines rather than their truth.Image
5/ Hedging in Bull Markets:

In 2021's latter half, GCR stayed active in crypto, despite his bearish outlook.

He shifted to short positions, capitalizing on liquidity exiting the market.Image
6/ Skill Diversification

GCR diversified his predictive skills across assets.

In 2021, he explored NFT speculation, favoring them over memecoins.

He viewed NFTs as a small part of his broader investment strategy.Image
7/ Coins With Weak Tokenomics:

Contrary to common belief, top-performing coins can have poor tokenomics.

Many teams launch during bear markets, waiting for better conditions to manipulate their holdings

This applies even in mini-bears within bear markets.Image
8/ Bet On Unit Bias :

Unit bias in crypto refers to preferring whole asset units.

This can lead to irrational investment decisions based solely on price, common among retail investors.Image
9/ Retail Hyped Coins:

Retail-hyped coins often trigger buying frenzies as anticipated events approach.

Investors anticipate wealth, but market makers exploit the surge to offload holdings.Image
10/ What To Do When Sidelined:

If sidelined, consider trading news instead of FOMOing into others' holdings.

News trading is competitive, so having infrastructure is crucial.Image
11/ Gaming Airdrop Patterns:

To maximize returns, capitalize on volatility at both ends, despite the market's increasing efficiency.

However, airdrops still follow predictable patterns.

GCR advises studying every event since 2018 for insights.Image
12/ Selling Points Of Round Numbers:

In reflexive assets, round numbers are powerful selling points.Image
13/ Prioritising Intuition:

GCR values intuition, the knack for picking up subtle cues even without conscious awareness.

He believes the best traders always prioritize this skill.Image
14/ Resetting Your Perspective:

Thinking about your peak net worth can cloud your judgment and emotional stability.

GCR suggests clearing your mind.

You could also regularly resetting your PNL perspective for better trading outcomes.Image
15/ Taking Profits Wisely:

Many overlook a simple truth: wealth isn't realized until it's taken.

Most lose gains by forgetting this.

Keep an eye on volume surpassing market cap.

It's a common indicator of the final stages of a parabolic move.Image
16/ Conclusion:

GCR's predictions are a starting point; always do your research.

Thanks for reading; if you enjoyed it, please like and RT!

Remember, this is purely educational, not financial advice.

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More from @DistilledCrypto

Sep 19, 2024
1/ Global M2 money supply just reached an all-time high.

Yet, $BTC's price remains subdued.

Liquidity isn't flowing into crypto, as investors favor safe assets like gold.

Is a shift coming? (h/t @BittelJulien) 🧵 Image
@BittelJulien 2/ Currently, $BTC has been oscillating within a defined range for 6 months.

Volatility is compressing, like a coiling spring.

In fact, only Aug 2023 & May 2016 show a tighter 180-day price range for BTC.

(h/t @glassnode) Image
@BittelJulien @glassnode 3/ Reflecting this risk-off mindset, stablecoin dominance has been rising since August.

Investors are seeking shelter in stable assets amid macro uncertainty.

Stablecoins dominate trading pairs, acting as a proxy for investor demand. Image
Read 12 tweets
Aug 25, 2024
Everyone dreams of getting rich with altcoins, but only a few actually do.

Why? Most people don’t understand asymmetry and fail at managing risk.

After studying 100s of top investors, I found a strategy that works(🧵 👇) Image
2/ Origin of the Strategy:

Inspired by @0x_Kun, who gained freedom before 30 via crypto investing.

His strategy is simple and works with any skill or capital level.

It has 6 steps. Bookmark this thread and come back to it as needed!

Full Form: buff.ly/3MFsuwZ
@0x_Kun 3/ Step 1: Manage Your Risk

The first step is all about managing risk.

No matter how smart you are, failing to manage risk means eventual failure.

The most effective way to manage risk? Through smart portfolio structuring. Image
Read 21 tweets
Aug 14, 2024
Bull & bear markets are ancient history.

Crypto’s evolved & the rules have changed.

So, what’s next? I’ve dug deep for answers.

Here’s what the smartest minds are thinking (my most important thread yet) 🧵👇 Image
2/ The best altcoin model I’ve come across is @Rancune_eth's quadrant model.

He argues that thinking in terms of bull or bear is outdated.

Instead, we need a better way to contextualize the market.

Rancune does this by defining two key dimensions: liquidity & token scarcity. Image
@Rancune_eth 3/ Liquidity is king in the crypto world.

It drives prices up and allows money to flow into the economy.

But it’s not just about how much money the government prints.

Crypto has unique barriers like on-ramping & CEX access that influence liquidity flows.
Read 18 tweets
Jul 29, 2024
The bull run isn’t as easy as you think.

Even if $BTC hits $100k, many will watch their gains slip away.

Don’t be one of them.

Here are 15 rules to maximize your gains this cycle (🧵👇) Image
1/ Unrealized size is not size.

This is the most important rule of all.

Make it your lock screen, stick it on your fridge – whatever you do, don’t forget it.

Paper gains are just imaginary until you sell.

(h/t TradeSanta) Image
2/ Avoid Leverage.

Altcoins already have enough firepower.

You don’t need more volatility to win big.

Don’t let greed kill your gains. Image
Read 17 tweets
Jul 28, 2024
Coinbase just dropped their "Crypto Outlook" for Q3 2024.

Packed with alpha, I've read all 60 pages so you don't have to.

Here are the top 10 takeaways you need to know (🧵👇 ) Image
2/ MVRV & Market Trends:

When MVRV is above its 365-day average, it signals a strong uptrend.

Corrections with MVRV support offer buying opportunities.

Currently, MVRV has bounced off support, suggesting the uptrend remains intact.

(h/t @glassnode) Image
@glassnode 3/ $BTC ROI From Cycle Low:

$BTC has completed 4 market cycles, each with bull and bear phases.

This cycle, which began in 2022, $BTC is up ~400% since its Nov 2022 low.

This cycle resembles the 2018-2022 cycle, which saw $BTC rise 2,000% from its low.

(h/t @glassnode) Image
Read 12 tweets
Jul 25, 2024
5 Reasons To Be Bullish:

The past few months have been rough.

But with US elections ahead and rising liquidity, the tide could soon shift.

Here are 5 reasons why staying on the sidelines could cost you big time (🧵👇) Image
1/ Liquidity Injections:

@pakpakchicken believes we could see $90k $BTC soon.

This prediction is based on injections from two major central banks: US and China.

Estimated $400B from the US and $140B from China.

Remember, liquidity leads everything else (h/t @pakpakchicken). Image
@pakpakchicken 2A/ Stablecoins Dynamics:

Stablecoin supply is just over ATHs while asset prices have soared. Why?

Higher cost and risk of capital in USDC/USDT compared to bank dollars.

With banks offering 5% risk-free, there's little incentive to move money on-chain.

(h/t @SplitCapital) Image
Read 9 tweets

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