1/ Global M2 money supply just reached an all-time high.

Yet, $BTC's price remains subdued.

Liquidity isn't flowing into crypto, as investors favor safe assets like gold.

Is a shift coming? (h/t @BittelJulien) 🧵 @BittelJulien 2/ Currently, $BTC has been oscillating within a defined range for 6 months.

Volatility is compressing, like a coiling spring.

In fact, only Aug 2023 & May 2016 show a tighter 180-day price range for BTC.

(h/t @glassnode)

Everyone dreams of getting rich with altcoins, but only a few actually do.

Why? Most people don’t understand asymmetry and fail at managing risk.

After studying 100s of top investors, I found a strategy that works(🧵 👇) 2/ Origin of the Strategy:

Inspired by @0x_Kun, who gained freedom before 30 via crypto investing.

His strategy is simple and works with any skill or capital level.

It has 6 steps. Bookmark this thread and come back to it as needed!

Full Form: buff.ly/3MFsuwZ

Bull & bear markets are ancient history.

Crypto’s evolved & the rules have changed.

So, what’s next? I’ve dug deep for answers.

Here’s what the smartest minds are thinking (my most important thread yet) 🧵👇 2/ The best altcoin model I’ve come across is @Rancune_eth's quadrant model.

He argues that thinking in terms of bull or bear is outdated.

Instead, we need a better way to contextualize the market.

Rancune does this by defining two key dimensions: liquidity & token scarcity.

The bull run isn’t as easy as you think.

Even if $BTC hits $100k, many will watch their gains slip away.

Don’t be one of them.

Here are 15 rules to maximize your gains this cycle (🧵👇) 1/ Unrealized size is not size.

This is the most important rule of all.

Make it your lock screen, stick it on your fridge – whatever you do, don’t forget it.

Paper gains are just imaginary until you sell.

(h/t TradeSanta)

Coinbase just dropped their "Crypto Outlook" for Q3 2024.

Packed with alpha, I've read all 60 pages so you don't have to.

Here are the top 10 takeaways you need to know (🧵👇 ) 2/ MVRV & Market Trends:

When MVRV is above its 365-day average, it signals a strong uptrend.

Corrections with MVRV support offer buying opportunities.

Currently, MVRV has bounced off support, suggesting the uptrend remains intact.

(h/t @glassnode)

5 Reasons To Be Bullish:

The past few months have been rough.

But with US elections ahead and rising liquidity, the tide could soon shift.

Here are 5 reasons why staying on the sidelines could cost you big time (🧵👇) 1/ Liquidity Injections:

@pakpakchicken believes we could see $90k $BTC soon.

This prediction is based on injections from two major central banks: US and China.

Estimated $400B from the US and $140B from China.

Remember, liquidity leads everything else (h/t @pakpakchicken).

Harsh truth: crypto success is mostly luck.

No matter how hard you try, you can’t beat being at ‘the right time at the right place.’

But what if you could increase your luck?

Here’s how to 10x the alpha on your timeline and boost your odds (🧵👇) 2/ The first and most important step is to block all the noise.

With less noise, it’s far easier to identify signals (opportunities).

Mute every theme that isn’t related to crypto. Sports, food, gaming, etc.

If your timeline is cluttered, consider making a new account.

Bull Run - Exit Strategies (pt. 2)

As altcoins surge, it's easy to get greedy and hope for another 2x pump.

But more often than not, you'll time it wrong.

If you're tired of round-tripping your gains, this is a thread you can't miss (🧵👇 ) 2/ Understanding Reflexivity:

One of the most crucial dynamics in crypto is reflexivity; here's a breakdown:

Prices influence fundamentals, altering expectations, which then impact prices 🔄.

Reflexivity can cause huge bubbles but also lead to big crashes.

(h/t Kevin Hill)

The Banana Zone: When Is It Coming?

You've probably heard of the "Banana Zone" unless you've been living under a rock.

But do you know when it will actually arrive?

Here are 5 metrics to watch so you don’t miss out (don't skip this thread) 🧵👇 2/ Small Caps & The Real Economy:

Keep an eye on the $IWM (Russell 2000) - it's beginning to break out.

$IWM represents small caps and is a key indicator of the health of the real economy.

As earnings rise, more money tends to flow into assets.

(h/t @pakpakchicken)

Crypto - The Golden Bull Run

Two of the sharpest minds in crypto recently shared their boldest predictions.

@RaoulGMI - Creator of 'The Banana Zone'
@Cburniske - Former Crypto Lead at $ARKK

After listening to their 90 min discussion, here are 15 insights (you can’t miss)🧵👇 @RaoulGMI @cburniske 2/ Token Growth vs. Attention Growth:

Crypto is growing tokens faster than it's growing attention.

This explains why:
- We haven't seen a 2021-like 'altseason'
- Altcoin returns are widely dispersed
- Crypto Twitter is very frustrated
- Many retail investors have round-tripped

How to Sell the Top (without getting lucky): 2/ Understand The Market.

Crypto cycles are driven by 3 key factors:

(A) The Global Liquidity Cycle (since 2008)
(B) The $BTC Halving (since 2012)
(C) US Elections/Regulation

Notice the 4-yr pattern? (h/t @TechDev_52)

Crypto Top Signals - 2024/2025:

Life-changing money or lifetime regret?

As crypto goes mainstream, the window for 'easy gains' is closing.

Sadly, not everyone will make it.

Here are 10 signals & tips to help you time your exit at the cycle's peak (🧵👇 ) 2/ Balloon > Bubble:

The term 'bubble' is often overused. Instead, think of the market as a balloon.

While bubbles suggest fragility, a balloon can overinflate, deflate, and stabilize.

The key is to exit gradually as the balloon approaches maximum volume.

1/ Bull Market - The 'Climax' Zone:

The market's greatest trick is convincing everyone it's over just as the fun begins.

“The bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends” - Warren Buffet.

Here are 7 reasons why the funnest stage hasn't started yet 🧵 👇 2/ The Greatest Trick Of The Market:

Before diving into the reasons, let’s understand the context.

The market's greatest trick is convincing people it’s over before the fun begins.

This is caused by the wall of worry.

The Biggest Opportunity In AI?

Crypto x AI is flooded with altcoins but lacks real utility & innovation.

Flying under the radar, one unique opportunity is up 100%+ in the past 30D.

Partnered with a $NVDA-backed firm, it fuses $BTC mining with AI for real revenue.

(0/11 🧵👇) 2/ The Case For Equities:

Currently, the most liquid AI investments are in the US stock market, not crypto.

$NVDA leads the way.

It's one of the few assets that has outperformed $BTC over a 10-year period.

(h/t @LynAldenContact)

Bull Market - Case For 2025 Top:

It’s July 2025, and $BTC is well past $100k.

Retail is finally here —altseason is upon us.

Dream or reality? Backed by strong macro and TA evidence, it's more likely the latter.

"Don't miss the forest for the trees" (0/20🧵) 2/ Thread Overview:

In this post, I'll draw from 2 critical sources to present the case for a 2025 top:

1. Macro Analysis
2. Technical Analysis (TA)

Macro guides the overall direction, while TA shows us the path from A to B.

What’s Next For Crypto?

The market is a war zone. The gap between bears & bulls is only widening.

Macro expert & on-chain wizard @intocryptoverse offers clarity:

[ $BTC + $ETH dominance to increase; ALT/BTC pairs echo Summer 2019 ]

Here are the key insights distilled (0/20🧵) 2/ The ETF Impact On $BTC:

Many investors are puzzled by surging ETF holdings yet lackluster $BTC momentum.

Ben emphasizes that the market is far bigger than ETF flows.

There are many overlooked sources of liquidity, for example old whales:

https://x.com/jvs_btc/status/1803445629860938054

When Will Liquidity Flood The Market?

More money typically means higher crypto prices, thanks to liquidity.

However, the market remains dry with the 2021 'rising tide' nowhere in sight.

I've explored insights from macro expert @pakpakchicken for clues (0/20🧵) 2/ The Impact Of Policy:

@pakpakchicken spends hours daily tracking policy changes.

“Policy drives liquidity, which drives assets, which drives GDP”

His conclusion? The largest risk is to the upside.

@CryptoHayes & @RaoulGMI agree 👇

https://x.com/pakpakchicken/status/1801874175726076095

When Will The Chop End?

Despite widespread pessimism and anger, $BTC is only 15% below its highs.

Famous trader @BobLoukas offers hope:

"Darkest before dawn, mid-cycle re-accumulation, right-translated cycle"

Here are his key insights distilled (0/16🧵) 2/ Monthly Chart:

We reached past cycle ATH reached by month 16—prior cycles took 2+ years.

3rd month moving sideways.

Historically, $BTC pauses post-ATH, then makes final cycle peak thereafter.

Longer chop = healthier/stronger next move.

"Crypto follows the path of max pain."

I learned this lesson from @pakpakchicken.

Mastering it is like gaining a "6th sense".

Here's how to profit & not be enslaved by it.

(0/14🧵) 1/ What Is Max Pain?

Max Pain theory suggests markets move to maximize losses for the most traders.

It's largely driven by by the psychological forces of fear and greed.

Let's dive into these drivers below👇

Most "altcoins" are not in a bull market.

The gap between the 'have nots' and 'have yachts' is widening IRL and in crypto.

Here are 5 uncomfortable crypto trends you need to know to survive this cycle 🧵👇 1. OTHERS/BTC: A Stark Reversal For Altcoins

OTHERS/BTC tracks altcoins (excluding top 10 cryptos) against BTC.

It filters out major players like $ETH to paint a clearer picture of altcoin performance.

Since early 2024, it's been on a downward trend.

(h/t @intocryptoverse)

Bull Market = Bitcoin Heaven, Altcoin Hell:

$BTC nears ATHs, while altcoins reflect bear market struggles.

For retail investors, navigating this market is extremely difficult.

However, not all hope is lost.

I've spotted a key trends and signals that can give you an edge 🧵👇 2/ The New BTC Paradigm:

Historically, $BTC has been viewed as a high-risk asset.

Yet, its resilience and the emergence of spot ETFs have diversified its investor base.

Some see speculation, others digital gold—a geopolitical hedge

$BTC is in its own bull market.