RW or LW: Where should Alejandro Garnacho play long-term? - THREAD
It has been a year of growth & transformation for Garnacho. Esp in a new position on the right which few predicted. And he impressed in those outings. So where is he better? I use data & eye test to analyze.
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Let's start with some basic details. I will be looking at EPL & UCL stats only since the other 2 cups don't have underlying numbers. Garnacho played most of the first half at LW & even at times in 2nd half. Result: 2x more starts & mins, equal goals & a 2 more assists from LW.
Shooting
When it comes to shooting, Garnacho shot 20% more from LW but had a better goal return from RW. The shot quality was similar though. Which means there is a degree of comfort or composure at play when it comes to finishing from RW. Let's corelate this with footage.
A CR fanboy, from the left where the angles favour him, Garnacho's shots often come after a mazey run cutting inside the box to give himself a shot chance. His thought often is "I have the ability/space to cut inside & shoot". It's why he takes more shots & often after dribbles.
But on the right, his angle limitations force him to think differently. His thought often is "I have space to run into & finish". His off-ball movement is seen lot more from the right & he has developed that ability this year & made good runs without the ball on the right.
This goes well with players like Bruno, Rashford, Mount, Scott, Dalot who have the ability to play good through balls or cutbacks or crosses from central & left-sided areas. 3 of Garnacho's goals from RW were from well-timed off-ball runs. This result is often a composed shot.
Passing
The stats indicate pass-first mentality from RW. He has better metrics for for every passing stat barring pass attempts which is simply a function of being more involved from LW. But even with less involvement from RW his assist threat, crossing & progression are better
Again, from LW, Garnacho's excitement at being on his favoured angle often makes him dribble first and then think about passing options. He either runs himself into awkward situations or misses the first-time change to play someone in. His carrying comfort goes against him.
But from RW, he thinks about his options quicker. In this clip, you can see both intentions we discussed - the off-ball run into space to get into a great position & the the single-minded thought of squaring the ball instead of thinking about shooting or another carry. Simple.
Creation
The same impact is seen in creation. He has slightly more SCAs from live passes & take-ons from LW largely coz of more involvement. But all his goal-creating actions & total SCA indicate a better creator from RW. Note how he didnt create a single GCA from LW take-ons.
Possession
To round off the data part, his carrying numbers indicate high involvement from LW. He simply gets the ball more & attempts more carries from LW which results in most of the volume stats as show. Only his safety stats are better from RW since he's less risky.
Garnacho is a great dribbler, there is no doubt. But the next step of that evolution is to figure out how those dribbles help the team. While he does help the team move to the box often with his dribbles, the part after that from LW is often shaky. One reason is the aggression.
The action where he takes the team from the halfway line into the box is valuable. And he's among the league's best at that, but it also results in him boxing himself into situations he can't make the best of. His left foot isn't bad. It's not a question of technique or skill.
It's more to do with the limited options at RW forcing him to make good decisions. The same technique & skill is put to more decisive use. Often his thought is "There is nothing else to do except X". That composure & decision-making ease is the difference b/w RW & LW currently.
What does this mean long-term?
There are 3 factors to consider for where he plays: 1) Development: If Garnacho's decision-making & composure improve to the point where it's as good from LW, then he can probably similar output from either side & remain a potent force both ways.
2) Team dynamics: Rashford-Hojlund-Garnacho worked largely because Garnacho's off-ball & pass-first components were a good contrast to the carry-heavy styles of the other 2. We saw many quick 1-2s & decisive passes & shots instead of laboured, aimless & think-later dribbling.
Rashford & Hojlund are key players & big contributors on their day. If Garnacho RW helps that dynamic it could be in the club's long-term interest to develop him there & polish ball-striking, creativity & off-ball movement to make him a well-rounded threat. Like peak Barca Pedro
3) Market dynamics: What is available for value also plays a part. LWs esp dribble-heavy ones are usually in abundance but RWs esp two-way threat ones, are very rare.
Costly starter RW with Garnacho as LW backup to Rashford?
OR
Cheaper LW backup with Garnacho-Amad RW rotation?
Summary:
— Lot more carry-and-shoot-heavy from LW but more run-and-create-heavy from RW
— Limited options increases efficiency, decisiveness & composure of actions from RW
— Future role depends on mental traits development, team tactical needs & market opportunities/planning
Thank you for reading so far.
- All stats are from @fbref. I simply separated LW & RW stats & used excel formulas to generate per 90 tables
- If you like such threads do check out my articles & threads from the 'highlights' tab on twitter or my website on thedevilsdna.com
Tagging the earlier poll here. It's crazy that the results are neck and neck. Indicates what a good debate this actually is. Let's see if results change with some post-thread votes.
Manchester United Progression Patterns under Amorim - Data Viz Thread
Where do Amorim's United progress from? Which players are contributing most/least? I divide each player's playing time by position in the 3-4-3, plot their prog passes & carries & derive insights.
Lets go!🧵
Before we begin, take a look at some gametime insights on who's played where & how much. That sets the understanding for the following thread. My first step was to split position wise data after which I made the plots based on Progression action formulas.
- Lisandro's high progression indicates what Amorim wants from this role. But comes most via passing
- Carrying power on both sides is sub-par
- Mazraoui & esp Yoro can be more progressive
- Note how carries & passes are out to wing when deep & then inward in final 3rd
3 reasons Manchester United are showing improved fitness levels & game control
So far under Amorim, we've seen an energetic team that's able to stick to their gameplan while controlling games. This was a big reason we kept knocking on City's door to earn the win. How?
Short 🧵
1. Data-driven rotation
Amorim is using data coupled with a hard stance on 'fit to play' to rotate & use subs. Amorim & the players have revealed that there were pre-decided minute thresholds set for many games, which ESPN also confirmed recently.
This also stems from an approach that prioritizes squad-wide principles over key player reliance. Amorim wants the system & roles to dictate gameplay rather than the core starters, which allows seamless rotation & subs without suffering high quality drop.
Just a short thread on yesterday's build up mistake between Onana & De Ligt. Who's mistake was it? What is the intention & regular pattern of that move? Why does the CCB step up to recieve back-to-goal in Amorim's system?
I'll explain in brief.
First, let's see an ideal execution using Amorim's Sporting. Here, the CCB has stepped up beside the DM. Sporting attract the press to left. Braga block the LCB's angles to GK & RCB, but LCB has access to CCB who has angle to RCB. A quick bounce pass later, RCB carries in space.
Another one in the same game. Sporting attract the press to the right side via the DM who passes back to GK. Because Braga's front 3 commited to the 3 players on screen, LCB is wide & free. GK plays to CCB who immediately plays it square to LCB. Press broken, LCB carries freely.
1. Hojlund - Biggest beneficiary IMO. A typical Amorim CF is heavy on channel running, carrying and running into spaces. Lines up with Hojlund's best traits & usage. I see a blockbuster combo here.
2. Lisandro - I called Inacio a Licha copy in my CB scouting reports. So, needless to say, Amorim will enjoy the superior version. Those CB to DM and CB to LB rotations in build up will suit Licha. Might see Licha as situational DM often.
3. Onana - Amorim is very big on GK being part of build up and doing a lot of press baiting before playing short/medium. Again suits Onana traits a lot.
Predicting all 3 to be used much better than they have been at Man Utd so far & closer to how they were used at Atalanta, Ajax & Inter respectively.
My article on Hojlund from his Atalanta days. So this is essentially my take on "How to get the best out of Hojlund".
Barcelona's risky defensive setup & the new top team meta - THREAD
Lot of talk about Barca's defensive setup. Yes, I also think it's risky, could have ended differently if Bayern/Madrid made some better choices & I do feel Barca will suffer a drop off later in season.
BUT...
A lot of this is planned & part of the tactic. Catching players (esp top players) offside repeatedly is an art & there is coaching involved in making such young players pull it off consistently. Flick also adapts pressing (Eg. Bayern 2nd half) when needed instead of gung-ho mode
Mainly, the in-possession dynamics are superb & getting players into good positions after generating space repeatedly. That counts for a lot. No system is perfect but being great in one dept is also a good deal for a top team whose good players can paper other systemic cracks.
Yesterday's good outing highlighted a few things about Garnacho's dribbling that his stats & displays across ~2 years also align with. In this thread, I'll explain the type of dribbling Garnacho is bad & good at & what that means.
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So far, this season for Garnacho in EPL:
Take-ons attempted: 90 %ile
Successful take-ons: 22 %ile
Take-on success: 6 %ile
Even last year his take-on success was only 26 %ile in EPL.
Takeaway: Garnacho isn't great at beating his man in a 1v1. He's not an isolation expert.
Rarely does he square up against his man & dribble past cleanly from a slow/standing start. He lacks the core strength, trickery & physicality to consistently get the best of his marker when he's isolated against them wide of play. Avoid such situations.