Manchester United & the manager problem: Why we keep getting it wrong, how to fix it & the next manager logic 🧵

A club’s season shouldn’t be over in GW3. Many teams recover from 2 poor PL games & an early Carabao Cup exit to still have a decent year.
But our context is unique. We’ve already seen 45 games of the Amorim system yield relegation-level form (0.97 points per game & 24% win rate in PL), and it’s been made clear that the system won’t change.
Amorim’s post-match comments are indicative.
The fans’ frustrations are indicative.

Manchester United Progression Patterns under Amorim - Data Viz Thread

Where do Amorim's United progress from? Which players are contributing most/least? I divide each player's playing time by position in the 3-4-3, plot their prog passes & carries & derive insights.
Lets go!🧵

Before we begin, take a look at some gametime insights on who's played where & how much. That sets the understanding for the following thread. My first step was to split position wise data after which I made the plots based on Progression action formulas.

https://x.com/TheDevilsDNA/status/1871620263856701603

3 reasons Manchester United are showing improved fitness levels & game control

So far under Amorim, we've seen an energetic team that's able to stick to their gameplan while controlling games. This was a big reason we kept knocking on City's door to earn the win. How?
Short 🧵 1. Data-driven rotation

Amorim is using data coupled with a hard stance on 'fit to play' to rotate & use subs. Amorim & the players have revealed that there were pre-decided minute thresholds set for many games, which ESPN also confirmed recently.

https://x.com/TheDevilsDNA/status/1865333905332580495?t=OKjfNy-xZQ0lbp7eOHSClA&s=08

The CCB bounce pass move🧵

Just a short thread on yesterday's build up mistake between Onana & De Ligt. Who's mistake was it? What is the intention & regular pattern of that move? Why does the CCB step up to recieve back-to-goal in Amorim's system?
I'll explain in brief. First, let's see an ideal execution using Amorim's Sporting. Here, the CCB has stepped up beside the DM. Sporting attract the press to left. Braga block the LCB's angles to GK & RCB, but LCB has access to CCB who has angle to RCB. A quick bounce pass later, RCB carries in space.

𝙈𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙝𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙐𝙣𝙞𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙥𝙡𝙖𝙮𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙬𝙝𝙤 𝙢𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙧𝙞𝙫𝙚 𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙧 𝙍𝙪𝙗𝙚𝙣 𝘼𝙢𝙤𝙧𝙞𝙢

1. Hojlund - Biggest beneficiary IMO. A typical Amorim CF is heavy on channel running, carrying and running into spaces. Lines up with Hojlund's best traits & usage. I see a blockbuster combo here.

2. Lisandro - I called Inacio a Licha copy in my CB scouting reports. So, needless to say, Amorim will enjoy the superior version. Those CB to DM and CB to LB rotations in build up will suit Licha. Might see Licha as situational DM often.

3. Onana - Amorim is very big on GK being part of build up and doing a lot of press baiting before playing short/medium. Again suits Onana traits a lot.

Predicting all 3 to be used much better than they have been at Man Utd so far & closer to how they were used at Atalanta, Ajax & Inter respectively.


My article on Hojlund from his Atalanta days. So this is essentially my take on "How to get the best out of Hojlund".

https://x.com/TheDevilsDNA/status/1688950699609174016?t=97zGz_T5USxO2QN6SutD3w&s=19

Barcelona's risky defensive setup & the new top team meta - THREAD

Lot of talk about Barca's defensive setup. Yes, I also think it's risky, could have ended differently if Bayern/Madrid made some better choices & I do feel Barca will suffer a drop off later in season.

BUT... A lot of this is planned & part of the tactic. Catching players (esp top players) offside repeatedly is an art & there is coaching involved in making such young players pull it off consistently. Flick also adapts pressing (Eg. Bayern 2nd half) when needed instead of gung-ho mode

What type of winger is Garnacho? - THREAD

Yesterday's good outing highlighted a few things about Garnacho's dribbling that his stats & displays across ~2 years also align with. In this thread, I'll explain the type of dribbling Garnacho is bad & good at & what that means.
🧵 So far, this season for Garnacho in EPL:
Take-ons attempted: 90 %ile
Successful take-ons: 22 %ile
Take-on success: 6 %ile

Even last year his take-on success was only 26 %ile in EPL.

Takeaway: Garnacho isn't great at beating his man in a 1v1. He's not an isolation expert.

Why doesn't Erik Ten Hag back the high press at Manchester United?

We've seen the data. We've seen the footage. Defenders not backing the front 6 high press, which creates a gap for opponents to dribble towards a retreating back 4. Let me explain the reasons it happens.
🧵 Firstly, I'd recommend reading this excellent thread by Jon. I often use "backing the press" & "playing a high line" in unison since they are linked to a certain extent. The act of compressing space from the back aids a team's high press effectiveless.

https://x.com/Jon_Mackenzie/status/1831030418486829069?s=08

How good is Manuel Ugarte in possession?

Quoted tweet & further quoted article highlight Ugarte's defending & basic traits well but I feel I can add more on his in-possession traits so here's a thread with examples on what I've noticed after seeing him over time for PSG & SP
🧵 It's tricky coz stats & highlights muddle actual tendencies. He either keeps it safe or tries long balls (usually a switch) when in space. I wouldn't say he's a central line breaker. In settled possession his usual dynamic is "pass short, pass short, oh I got space, easy switch"

What is the correlation between team height and set piece prowess? - THREAD

There is often an assumption that being a tall team aids set piece excellence at both ends. I put this theory to test using data for Premier League teams in 23/24 & find out the real key to success.
🧵 As a 1st step, I noted down the data for average team height by mins played this season (from @CIES_Football) & Set piece xG & xGA (from @OptaAnalyst). The below are the results. Newcastle & Man Utd had the tallest teams by mins played in EPL. SHU, Man City & Brighton shortest.

RW or LW: Where should Alejandro Garnacho play long-term? - THREAD

It has been a year of growth & transformation for Garnacho. Esp in a new position on the right which few predicted. And he impressed in those outings. So where is he better? I use data & eye test to analyze.
🧵 Let's start with some basic details. I will be looking at EPL & UCL stats only since the other 2 cups don't have underlying numbers. Garnacho played most of the first half at LW & even at times in 2nd half. Result: 2x more starts & mins, equal goals & a 2 more assists from LW.

How Manchester United frustrated Man City with their compact block - THREAD

#MUFC's glorious FA Cup win was built on a compact out-of-possession setup that has been absent all year. But when it mattered, ten Hag's defensive tactics completely bamboozled Pep. I explain how.
🧵

City formed a 3-2-5 in possession with Foden & KDB in the half spaces. United set up in a mid block 4-4-2 out of possession. The 4 midfieders marked the box 4 of City (Amrabat on Foden, Mainoo on KDB, Bruno on Kovacic, Scott on Rodri) similar to last year Barca UEL setup.

Why do we not see the best of players & coaches when they are at Manchester United? - THREAD

There are now many post-SAF examples of players & staff being inconsistent or just bad at #MUFC but finding more success before or after. It's not about quality. It's about fitment.
1/


We know how good Sancho was at BVB before we signed him.
We know how good Onana was at Inter.
We know how good Rashford, Bruno & Maguire were under Ole.
We know how good Erik Ten Hag was at Ajax.
We know how good Pogba was at Juve.
We know how good Casemiro was at Real Madrid
2/

Watch both clips. As I've said many times before, all the issues we're seeing were prevalent at Ajax too. Esp in UCL & big games. And ten Hag knows the risk. The issue is that the risk-reward ratio worked in Eredivisie with a league dominant team & doesn't in the PL with us.

https://twitter.com/ErikTenShelby/status/1775194027140272419

Which is why we haven't seen any adjustment all season long. He genuinely believes in this system & assumes that better players will make it work & shift the risk-reward balance to positive. I don't think it will. People assuming system/philosophy change will be disappointed.

Why is Hojlund not getting enough service esp from Bruno?🧵

Comes down to our main chance creation pattern:
Switch to winger -> take on -> cutback/shot

In this sequence, Bruno & central players are the ones switching. See below locations of his passes into final 3rd vs Newport.

https://twitter.com/_MUFCJames/status/1751896639852208552

Most of our entries into final 3rd are these quick switches to wingers esp LW. And it's often the first action of midfielders (Casemiro pass % was <60%). So they're playing the winger in without unsettling an organized opponent block. Below eg from Spurs:

https://x.com/TheDevilsDNA/status/1746950700704383141?t=X1LyfW0-TzL2qMMwA-5jHw&s=08

Manchester United 2-2 Tottenham: Tactical Analysis (EPL GW21, 23/24 season)

In this thread, I'll cover Manchester United's
— Build up intent, patterns & struggles
— Progression & chance creation issues
— Pressing structure & its easy manipulation

Let's go! 🧵


First, check the below thread for the lineups, pass maps & basic stats of the game. We had worse xG, possession, field tilt, PPDA & build up success against Spurs. With that context set, I'll explain why the game played out the way it did. Let's begin.

https://twitter.com/markstatsbot/status/1746601157785751607

How to get the best out of Marcus Rashford

— Strengths, weaknesses & traits
— Suitable in-possession patterns
— Complimentary profiles to support

Mega-thread.🧵

Before we dive into usage, let's jot down what we know of his profile.

Strengths:
🟢Movement in-behind
🟢Ball-striking & execution of shots/crosses
🟢Dribbling when 1v1 especially in wide areas
🟢Finishing variety & consistency
🟢Athleticism & agility

https://twitter.com/TheDevilsDNA/status/1715644411965755538

Erik ten Hag's biggest weakness - Rest defence

— The importance of rest defence
— Manchester United's structure & issues
— Top team examples
— Potential solutions

Thread. 🧵

What is rest defence?

Based on the German Restfeldsicherung, rest defence refers to the defensive structure that “rests” (remains) when a team is in the attacking phase. Basically how a team attacks knowing they can defend transitions when they lose ball

The starting XI & tactic that can still turn around Erik Ten Hag's fortunes

- The big issues plaguing Manchester United
- The tactical tweaks needed to bounce back
- The XI & players that can enable it

Thread.🧵
Firstly, what are the big tactical issues. The below post details what I feel are the big 3 issues
1. Out of possession setup leading to poor defence
2. In possession setup leading to poor control & creation
3. Other tactical choices & selections

https://twitter.com/TheDevilsDNA/status/1731968944637153740

How to get the best out of Lisandro Martinez

- Licha's strengths, weaknesses & traits
- Suitable tactical roles in & out of possession
- Pros & cons of each

Thread.🧵 Lisandro's strengths
🟢Build up ability - Positioning sense to show or create lanes for others + close control to recieve, turn & carry
🟢Progression - Passing range & technique to progress into attacking half
🟢Duels once locked - Pressing, intensity & physicality esp on ground

𝙈𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙝𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙐𝙣𝙞𝙩𝙚𝙙'𝙨 𝙗𝙪𝙞𝙡𝙙 𝙪𝙥 𝙥𝙖𝙩𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙣𝙨 𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙧 𝙀𝙧𝙞𝙠 𝙏𝙚𝙣 𝙃𝙖𝙜

Analysis of all build up variations across ETH's tenure with use cases & match examples.

Mega thread.🧵 Firstly, what is build up?

For a team in possession in the defensive 3rd of the pitch, the aim of the build up phase or 1st phase of possession is to break the opposition press & reach the middle 3rd. Has high importance today to combat modern aggressive & structured pressing.