Thread by @Mylovanov

The Economist: In Crimea, Ukraine is beating Russia. It is becoming a death trap for the Kremlin’s forces.

Ukraine success in Crimea provides lessons about how Ukraine can succeed elsewhere.

Those lessons are straightforward, really:

1. Saturate Ukraine with weapons 1/

2. Provide long-range striking capabilities
3. Allow to use these capabilities on the target area
2/

The Economist: Ukraine is now able to hit any target in Russian-occupied Crimea with deadly effect due to the arrival of ATACMS ballistic missiles with a 300km range. 3/

The E: The U.S. has eased restrictions on using American weapons against military targets in Russia, allowing Ukraine to hit Russian forces attacking or preparing to attack Kharkiv. 4/

The E: Ukraine is systematically making Crimea uninhabitable for Russian forces, degrading Russia's air defenses, hitting air bases, and striking critical logistics and economic targets. 5/

The E: Ukraine has demonstrated the ability to hit Russian warships, with many landing vessels destroyed and much of the Black Sea Fleet relocating away from Sevastopol. 6/

The E: Russia's expensive S-400 air defense systems have been found wanting, vulnerable to decoy drones revealing their positions and Ukrainian sabotage. 7/

The E: Ukraine aims to isolate Crimea, push Russian air and sea forces away from southern Ukraine, and strangle it as a logistics hub for Russia. 8/

The E: Disrupting the new railway line from Russia into Crimea will be a challenge, as Russia recognizes the vulnerability of the Kerch Bridge. 9/

There are two lessons from Crimea.

1. It is possible to beat Russia with consistent application of long-range weapons. Yes, it is working. 10/

2. As Crimea is a weak spot for Russia and Putin, Ukraine can gain meaningful leverage over Russia by denying Crimea to Russians 11/

The first lesson implies that the West shouldn't be afraid to give Ukraine weapons to strike deeper into Russia.

Indeed, Crimea, Black Sea Fleet, and the Kerch Bridge all have been pronounced a red line by Russia only to be revealed a bluff 12/

But also if Crimea goes, Putin is likely to lose power. He sold the entire project to Russian people on the ease of getting Crimea. 13/

Russia has become a victim of its own greediness. Once it got Crimea, it had to protect it. That's why the land bridge through Mariupol. This is in fact the only strategic achievement of Russia post 2022. 14/

But now Crimea and the land bridge create a weakness that Ukraine is exploiting making the Kremlin and Putin look losers. 15/

Ukraine should and will push harder on Crimea, getting badly needed leverage.

Many people in the West believe Ukraine won't be getting Crimea back any time soon if at all. 16/

But if Ukraine continues bombing all military positions there, Crimea will de fact not be of any interest or use to Russia. 17/

Then, Russia might simply have to abandon it. I hope it happens soon. I also hope the lessons of the Ukrainian success in Crimea are applied elsewhere, in particular, across the border in Kharkiv. 18X