Rather depressing that new Defence Minister Belousov is sporting a uniform now for Security Council, even if he has the silver stars of a civil servant, not gold of a general. Performative dress does matter though – a short thread 1/
Until Shoigu, civilian defence ministers wore suits – even Sergei Ivanov, who as a former FSB general did have the legit right to go uniformed. Apart from just being less tacky, it also symbolised civilian control of the military 2/
Shoigu is something of a master of spin (to terrible effect considering how far he fooled Putin as to the state of the Russian military), and his decision to affect a uniform was done for reasons 3/
1. To try and convince generals who were v unhappy after the Serdyukov/Makarov reforms, that he was on their side. In fairness, he did do a good job of rebuilding bridges 4/
2. To try and play on his MChS Emergencies Ministry background – which is a uniformed service – to present himself as state servant rather than just another grey-suited politico. (He was happy to be grey-suited politico when it was useful, of course) 5/
3. Later, subliminally to hammer home the “Russia at war” message and his position at the fore (esp important as he had counselled against annexation of Crimea in 2014 and had been lukewarm about sending troops to Donbas) 6/
(A retired soldier once said to me in 2015 he suspected “the less Shoigu is happy with what’s going on, and the Kremlin suspects it, the more he’s in uniform”) 7/
Belousov has no military/uniformed experience, but in the modern equivalent of Peter the Great’s Table of Ranks, a State Councillor 1st class (like Belousov) corresponds to the military rank of General 8/
The tell is in his epaulets, with the silver star and ministry crest. So *technically* this is OK. But… 9/
Wearing a suit would have been both classy and a sign of independence from the generals – whose incompetence and corruption he is there to fix. It would again have symbolised that even now, civilian power takes precedence 10/
Instead, while it is still too early to know how he will do, I fear his decision to don uniform for a meeting, not even Victory Day parade or the like, suggests a degree of cringe, of trying to accommodate all those scary military men 11/
It’s easy (and not wholly untrue) to slam Vladimir Medinsky, leading the Russian delegation to Istanbul as a nobody, but perversely, although I think it monstrously unlikely anything meaningful will come from the talks, the composition of the delegation is encouraging. A 🧵 1/
Putin was never likely to attend, not least as he wasn’t going to allow it to look as if he had been manipulated and dared by Zelensky. Besides… 2/
Sometimes, it can help break a logjam (think Reagan/Gorbachev), but leaders usually turn up to seal the deal at the end of the process, after experts have done all the hard preparatory work away from the cameras. 3/
Moscow is still noncommittal on the Ukraine ceasefire proposal. Why? A short thread 1/
Putin wants Kursk recaptured first. If there is any chance the ceasefire front line ends up freezing as a de facto border, he doesn't feel he can leave any Russian territory in Ukrainian hands. 2/
Putin doesn't make tough decisions quickly. He wants to slow the pace, so that he has time to mull and consult - and anyway, he tends to shy away from big decisions. 3/
Leaving #MSC2025 (exhausted!) there’s been lots of bullish comment about Europe getting its act together and “the resistance begins” (how telling that its resistance to the USA, not Russia or China…). But… 1/
How far will it last outside the hothouse atmosphere of the MSC, and the competitive, performative desire to out-bluster the last speaker? I don’t doubt the sentiment it’s that I honestly don’t know what happens when faced with the costs and transposed into the real world 2/
But also… what does it mean? Military and geopolitical capacity cannot be spun up overnight or even overyear, and all means potentially substantial costs. Who is going to start talking about considerable tax hikes? In particular, I’m worried… 3/
My man Nicky P, Nikolai Patrushev, is giving interviews again (lots of spare time to fill, I suspect), this time in Komsomolskaya Pravda. A thread 1/ kp.ru/daily/27651/50…
His key point is that the world is changing (hardly novel) and by implication the old status quo (= current world order) is obsolete: “we are witnessing serious changes in the world. I mean not only the geopolitical situation, but also the state of affairs in the economy, the technological sphere, social and cultural processes. The last time such tectonic shifts occurred was after the collapse of the USSR.” 2/
So, not *just* Trump. But certainly Trump: “Then the West was unable to adapt normally to the new realities and continued to live as during the Cold War, constantly looking for enemies.” Now there is a new broom coming to DC. 3/
Putin’s problems build in Ukraine, but he’s finding help in Brussels
The focus isn't so much on what's highlighted in the title, but anyway, here's my roundup of the situation for @thetimes (£) - some quick takeaways 1/ thetimes.com/world/russia-u…
On Monday's 'Reunification Day' 'celebrations', Putin asserted the “genuinely liberating nature” of his invasion and crowed that “all the goals we have set for ourselves will be achieved”. Hardly, but at present he has some reasons to be content 2/
Russian forces are grinding forward in the Donbas front, even if slowly and painfully, and there is some progress against the Kursk salient. Meanwhile... 3/
It’s interesting how the Russian press is handling the specific case of Vadim Krasikov, the Spetsnaz turned contract killer turned FSB assassin, whom Putin welcomed first at Vnukovo. A thread about how the outlier (positive) coverage is perversely (slightly) good news. 1/
Most newspaper play it straight and low-key: they note the confirmation that he was an FSB’s Al’fa commando, convicted of killing “Georgian citizen Zelimkhan Khangoshvili, who lived in Germany,” a former Chechen “field commander.” 2/ vedomosti.ru/politics/news/…
Likewise, Izvestiya makes a point of calling him “retired colonel”, to distance him from the state apparatus. 3/ iz.ru/1736954/elizav…