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Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Jun 4, 2024 • 11 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X

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What will change with the arrival of the F-16 in Ukraine? This fighter made its first flight in 1974, entered service in 1978. It cannot be called the most modern fighter, but there are many modifications and it is very versatile, due to which it has
1/10
🧵by @iljaandreev

become the most widespread fighter of the 4th generation. Ukraine will not receive the latest modifications, but it will still be a big step forward compared to the Soviet Su and MiG fighters that they use. These fighters are inferior to Russian ones because they are not the
2/10

latest modifications of these models that the Russian Air Force has. In addition, by 2024, Ukraine will have only about 75 airworthy fighters left. The arrival of the F-16 will strengthen the Ukrainian Air Force, which it so needs now. It was precisely the advantage in the
3/10

air that largely allowed Russia to advance in Avdiivka and in the Kharkiv direction. But now the advance of the Russian army has been stopped. It lacks resources, and what it has, it uses in meat assaults. The main thing is that with the F-16, Ukrainian pilots will now be
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able to use the capabilities of the modern missiles already delivered to the fullest. Such as HARM. These missiles were developed for use on modern platforms. The missile is guided to the enemy's radar signal, be it air defense or an aircraft with a radar. These missiles
5/10

were adapted to old Soviet aircraft, but their effectiveness was limited due to the lack of suitable radars on them and the impossibility of using all modes. Only the so-called "Pre-Briefed" mode is available. The missiles were programmed for the target in advance and
6/10

launched from a long distance, which gave the Russians time to turn off the radars if they noticed the missile. The F-16 will have the "Self-Protect" and "Target of Opportunity" modes available, for which they were developed. The F-16 will allow it to approach the target
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at a closer distance without the risk of being shot down and to be guided to the target using the aircraft's radar, after which the launched missile is guided based on the data received from the aircraft, and even if the Russians turn off their radar, the missile will reach
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the target. The F-16 is inferior in speed to the Su-35, but the Su is much larger in size and is clearly visible on the radar. The F-16 is not a super weapon, but Russia's fighters are not the most modern either.
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Together with the Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft (ASC 890), which Sweden will transfer to Ukraine, this will be a serious blow to the Russian air defense and air force.
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More from @ArturRehi

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Jul 1

The Russian economy is losing momentum. Sberbank chief German Gref warned that the country is entering a period of serious challenges. Speaking at the bank’s annual shareholders’ meeting, Gref pointed to military spending, inflation, and high interest rates as key factors
1/14

that will continue to weigh on the economy through 2026. He noted that loan quality is declining, and more individuals and businesses are seeking to restructure their debts. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that senior bank executives see the risk of a banking crisis within
2/14

the next 12 months. Unpaid loans are quietly piling up, though this has yet to show in official figures. The agency estimates that bad loans could hit 3.7 trillion rubles — about 20% of the banking sector’s capital. Much of this traces back to the war. Many soldiers received
3/14

Read 14 tweets

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Jun 30

According to BILD, "Russia is expected to emerge stronger after the war in Ukraine, and the Kremlin is actively preparing for a potential invasion of NATO countries." While the Russian threat remains real, and it must not be dismissed — and we must indeed prepare for it — at
1/16

this stage, nearly all statements about a potential Russian attack on NATO countries are nothing more than attempts to divert NATO’s attention and resources away from the war in Ukraine. Let’s look at the facts. The so-called “grand” summer offensive in the Sumy region
2/16

stalled after just a month. Russia gathered 50,000 troops, but it has no more equipment. Its reserves are nearly depleted, while Ukraine’s arsenal is expanding — its range of weapons is growing, and its capabilities are increasing despite all the challenges with manpower.
3/16

Read 16 tweets

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Jun 26

Ultimately, the main achievement of both Putin and Trump is that NATO has now committed to increasing annual defense spending to at least 5% of GDP by no later than 2035 — a level unseen since the Cold War. Previously, the target was just 2%. Some countries, like Estonia,
1/7

are already set to reach this threshold as early as next year. Spain opposed the move, but it is geographically the farthest from the main threat — Russia. At least, that’s how it seems to them. But one should not forget that Russia’s core strategy revolves around hybrid
2/7

threats, which have no borders. For major European countries — France, Germany, and others — the decisive factor was pressure from Trump. The war in Ukraine, ongoing since 2014, had not pushed Europe toward a more serious approach to security. While the Baltic states, Poland,
3/7

Read 7 tweets

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Jun 26

NATO suggests that Russia can sustain the war at its current pace until 2027. Of course, I may be accused of being sympathetic to Ukraine and having a biased opinion, but let’s look at the facts—what’s wrong with this statement? The Russian war machine currently relies on
1/18

Soviet-era equipment reserves, a large number of soldiers, and the National Wealth Fund. Let’s start with the first point. Soviet equipment reserves are almost completely depleted. The offensive on Sumy is carried out mainly through infantry assaults, and the amount of
2/18

destroyed Russian equipment in recent weeks is two to three times lower than during the same period in previous years. If Russia continues the war at the same pace, by 2027 almost all of its equipment will be gone—perhaps even the few donkeys they have. As for soldiers,
3/18

Read 18 tweets

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Jun 24

The appointment of Robert Brovdi, known by his call sign "Madyar," as head of the Unmanned Systems Forces of Ukraine has already yielded noticeable results, according to Russian military bloggers. They report that Ukrainian drone strikes are now primarily aimed at eliminating
1/12

Russian UAV operators. Madyar has openly declared his goal of building a "drone wall" along the entire front line and destroying up to 35,000 Russian soldiers per month—the estimated number that the Russian army can mobilize on a monthly basis. He advocates for establishing
2/12

dedicated UAV units for each section of the front line, with operators who are intimately familiar with their own sector, rather than deploying UAV teams as a mobile reserve shuffled between hotspots. His concept is to create a continuous "kill zone" across the whole
3/12

Read 12 tweets

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Jun 20

The war in Iran benefits Russia in the short term, but in the long run, the loss of Iran would be a major defeat for Moscow in the region, further weakening its already diminished position in the Middle East. The fall of Syria has significantly undermined Russia’s influence
1/15

there, and Iran remains its last major ally in the region. Russia is trying to squeeze every possible advantage out of this unfavorable situation. The war in Iran distracts the West and its allies from the conflict in Ukraine, but the main gain for Russia is the rise in oil
2/15

prices. Russia’s 2025 budget is under enormous strain because it was planned based on an oil price of $80 per barrel. However, since the summer of 2024, oil prices have been steadily falling, reaching around $50 per barrel for Urals crude in the spring of 2025. The war in
3/15

Read 16 tweets

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