Thread by @MissQuanyi18

As I mentioned earlier in my previous 🧵 the 🇵🇭 is being groomed by the 🇺🇸 to be the next 🇺🇦. How will the 🇺🇸 do it? It will be similar to the 🇺🇦 game plan all over again. the plan has always been to supply weapons to some delusional idiots who were...🧵

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

2. willing to do the dirty work for them. The 🇵🇭 plan will also be similar. If there is a hot war between the 🇵🇭 and 🇨🇳. I anticipate that the 🇺🇸, along with Japan, SK, India, and the DPP separatists in 🇹🇼 might line up to supply weapons and cash to 🇵🇭 to fight 🇨🇳. They wish...

3. to bleed the PLAN in anyway possible with their weapons in Filipino hands. Very likely they will send in mercenaries, advisers, volunteers, and even rebadge their servicemen into 🇵🇭 uniforms to do more sophisticated fighting. They definitely wants to see their munitions...

4. missiles and drones being used to hurt PLAN vessels, aircraft and manpower outside of a direct war with 🇨🇳.
That should be the cynical 🇺🇸 plan. But how it'll fare out in reality will be very different from 🇺🇦. Its primarily naval warfare instead of land warfare, it will be...

5. Near impossible to pull off unlike 🇺🇦 who actually had pretty formidable military. The 🇵🇭 does not have anything to speak of. The most modern fighter is the Korean FA-50 which is a converted trainer with limited range and small radar
Navy has zero destroyers. Army cannot...

6. be transported anywhere since it is an archipelago. You would have to donate entire ships and dozens of aircraft which is simply impossible. You would not be able to hide the thousands of personnel to support such an effort. They will be sink by the PLAN before they reach 🇵🇭..

7. How will 🇨🇳 deal with the 🇵🇭?When 🇨🇳 sees that shooting war with 🇵🇭 is inevitable, she will support the numerous muslim insurgencies in the south that plagued the 🇵🇭 for decades. And also NPA Communist insurgent group, this group have an affinity with CPC as they follow...

8. Maoist ideology. The 🇵🇭 can expect those rebels will have Type 82 Rifle, FN-6 and HJ-12. I'm sure that it will become bloodier for Pinoys to pacify these rebels. At least they will need more and more Helicopters and Armored Vehicles to replace their older ones. And not only...

9. That. You will also see Moro rebels suddenly have a lot of DJI drones that normally impossible for them to have.
I think for 🇨🇳 to allying themselves with Moro rebels are very beneficial. Because the sea where the Moros live actually very strategic for 🇺🇸 navy to bring...

10. Their ships to SCS. Just imagine if those Moro rebels have C802 missiles or even ASBM, it will be harder for 🇺🇸 navy to pass that strait. Just like Houthi with the red sea. They have to fight in order to contest the sea with the rebels. So the 🇵🇭 will fight a two front war...

11. against 🇨🇳 in SCS and at the same time also fighting the moro rebels from the south, plus the the revived NPA Maoists rebels, in this scenario its very likely we see the 🇵🇭 be Balkanised back to their individual pre-Spanish colonial era states. You may say that 🇨🇳 won't...

12. Do that, since she has Non Interference policy, but that policy will not apply to 🇨🇳 enemy. If 🇨🇳 consider 🇵🇭 as an enemy, they'll do everything to destabilize the country. The fact that so far, 🇨🇳 has not touch 🇵🇭 wound, means that they still not seeing 🇵🇭 as the enemy...

13. I think it's in 🇵🇭 best interest to try their hardest to keep 🇨🇳 thinking that way. Since 🇨🇳 herself wouldn't object to such a conflict either if there is no other options.