Thread by @DawieScholtz

1/ I've done a deep demographic analysis of the election result.

Read it comprehensively here:

It is paywalled, but I will share the key stats in the thread below.news24.com/news24/opinion…

2/ BIG differential Turnout. National Turnout by demographic group:

White: 71% (-6)
Indian: 64% (-5)
Coloured: 58% (-5)
Black: 55% (-8)

Overall: 58% (-8)

That's a +16% differential turnout gap between majority-white VDs and majority-black VDs. Huge help to the DA.

3/ Interesting detail within the black electorate. Black voter turnout by province:

KZN 60%
GP 57%
MP 56%
FS 54%
EC 51%
LM 51%
NW 51%
NC 51%
WC 50%

Turnout highest where the ANC got punished hardest. ANC needed higher LM and EC black voter turnout.

4/ Now we turn to voting patterns. Majority-white voting stations, nationally:

DA 73% (+5)
ANC 7% (-6)
FF+ 5% (-5)
EFF 4% (+1)
ActionSA 2%

DA halved the FF+ and took back the white Ramaphorists from 2019. Huge success for the DA here.

5/ Deep-dive on white Afrikaans areas:

DA 75% (+11)
FF+ 10% (-11)
ANC 5% (-3)
EFF 3% (+1)
ActionSA 1% (+1)

Here the swing from FF+ to DA is clear (and huge).

6/ Majority-Coloured VDs nationally:

DA 49% (-12)
PA 18% (+18)
ANC 15% (-8)

Huge inroads for the PA, taking from both the DA and the ANC. Getting these voters back will be priority 1 for the DA.

7/ Super interesting little detail in the coloured electorate is how it splits between Cape Town and large towns in WC vs. elsewhere:

Coloured Urban WC:
DA 60%
PA 10%
ANC 8%

Coloured Rest of Country:
DA 41%
PA 23%
ANC 20%

PA and ANC much stronger outside of the urban WC.

8/ Majority-Indian voting stations. These are mostly in KZN:

DA 71% (+4)
MK (+8)
ANC 8% (-11)

ANC more than halving here since 2019. MK actually getting more votes than the ANC here in the aggregate. DA will also be delighted.

9/ This is the huge one. All majority-black voting stations nationally:

ANC 53% (-20)
MK 19% (+19)
EFF 11% (-3)
IFP 5% (-)
DA 4.4% (-)
ActionSA 1% (+1)

Fascinating! DA and IFP exactly the same as 2019. DA doing 4.4x ActionSA overall. And MK swinging almost 20% out of the ANC.

10/ Then let's break down majority-black VDs by province. There are huge variations.

Majority-black VDs, KZN:

MK 52% (+52)
ANC 20% (-42)
IFP 20% (+2)
EFF 3% (-8)
DA 2% (-2)

MK just crushed everyone, except the IFP who was able to hold and slightly grow its share.

11/ Majority-black VDs, Mpumalanga:

ANC 58% (-22)
MK 20% (+20)
EFF 13% (+1)
DA 5% (+1)

MK was the whole story here...

12/ There's a fascinating sub-split in Mpumalanga:

Majority Black VDs in Mpumalanga, Zulu Speaking:
ANC 47%
MK 30%
EFF 12%
DA 5%

Majority Black VDs in Mpumalanga, Not Zulu Speaking:
ANC 64%
MK 14%
EFF 13%
DA 5%

MK made inroads everywhere, but just much more with Zulu speakers

13/ Majority-black VDs, Gauteng:

ANC 53% (-19)
EFF 16% (-2)
MK 15% (+15)
DA 7% (+1)

ANC getting close to 50% with black voters only in Gauteng is totally unheard of. Mind-blowing. MK impact.

14/ Majority-black VDs, Limpopo:

ANC 79% (-2)
EFF 12% (+1)
DA 3% (-)
MK 1% (+1)

Here the ANC was much more resilient. Needed higher turnout.

15/ Majority-black VDs, North West and Northern Cape combined:

ANC 68% (-5)
EFF 18% (-)
DA 5% (-)
MK 2% (+2)

That -5% hurt the ANC, was part of the national wave (beyond MK) that drove it to low 40s.

16/ Majority-black VDs, Western Cape:

ANC 70% (-10)
EFF 15% (+4)
DA 5% (+1)
MK 2% (+2)

Again that -10 for the ANC here was part of the non-MK national wave...

17/ Majority-black VDs, Free State:

ANC 65% (-10)
EFF 14% (+1)
DA 10% (+3)
MK 2% (+2)

This one is a little bit of history. First time ever, in any election, that the DA hits double-digits with black voters in any province. They will be delighted with this result!

18/ Majority-black VDs, Eastern Cape:

ANC 75% (-6)
EFF 11% (+2)
DA 3% (-)
MK 2% (+2)

That -6% really hurt the ANC. Needed this to be stable. Part of the national wave that took it to low 40s.

19/ These are the stats. I will leave them with you to argue about the meaning.

Fascinating, historic election! Was an absolute privilege to have been there at the ROC to watch this one come in.