1/ ENCA has a poll out.

ANC 41%
DA 20%
EFF 16 %
MK 11%
IFP 4%
ActionSA 1%

No idea about methodology. I'll be retweeting all polls. You make up your own mind. :) 2/ A few thoughts in general. Let's assume for a moment the polling 'average' is directionally indicative.

Firstly, the ANC average seems to have shifted to sub-45, which is radical! Clearly MK has had a huge impact (for now). And it's not too divergent between the polls either

1/ We had some by-elections yesterday. (Note: The most interesting result from Tshwane 105 is not yet in, will tweet it later).

Nongoma, KZN, ward 11:
IFP 54% (-5)
ANC 19% (-4)
ActionSA 10% (+10)
NFP 7% (-6)
EFF 3% (-1)

Better than my expectation for ActionSA in rural KZN. 2/ There were two others in KZN as well:

uMvoti 6:
IFP 51% (+3)
ANC 34% (+3)
ABC 14% (-5)

Abaqulusi 12:
ANC 52% (-6)
IFP 46% (+11)
EFF 1% (-2)

The Abaqulusi one is interesting. IFP on the up as in other place, but the swing was just short of what was needed to pick up the ward

1/ ICYMI: I wrote an article for @News24 on all the by-elections that took place this year. Just reposting since it got published the day before Christmas.

Full article here: bit.ly/3PX3tOz

In short, the ANC is in free fall. Key stats in the tweets below. 2/ Majority black wards outside of KZN (85 000 voters in 2022 by-elections):

2019
ANC 76%
EFF 14%

2021
ANC 67%
EFF 16%

2022
ANC 53%
EFF 26%

Big slide for the ANC. Only ANC and EFF consistently contested all wards so others excluded.

1/ I've also modelled all by-elections this year. Across all predominantly black wards in 2022 to date (34 wards, 72 000 voters):

2022:
ANC 47% (-12)
IFP 17% (+7)
EFF 16% (+4)

2021:
ANC 59%
EFF 12%
IFP 10%

2019:
ANC 71%
EFF 13%
IFP 6%

The ANC is in trouble. -12% in 1 year. 2/ Disclaimer: The sample is overweight KZN and underweight on FS, GP and LM (just because of where the by-elections were). Which is why IFP is showing up so big. And maybe also overstating the ANC's problems. But it's still really bad...

1/ I've been away for a while. Missed a few interesting by-elections and some absolute bangers coming up!

ICYMI: Three interesting ones from recent history

EFF won a historic victory against the ANC in Nkomazi 11 in Mpumalanga:

EFF 58% (+35) !!
ANC 35% (-39)

Wild. 2/ The PA did really well on the West Coast in Lambert's Bay (Cederberg 5):

DA 46% (+3)
PA 33% (+25)
ANC 21 (-5)

DA did fine, but did get endorsed by some other parties who didn't contest. PA will be interesting, especially in rural Western Cape it seems.

1/ There's a lot of political debate going on all over the place. My thoughts:

The fundamental question in SA politics is how to develop our country to be more prosperous and a land of opportunity FOR ALL. (Which means we need to tackle inequality, largely still defined by race) 2/ The ANC has achieved incremental successes since 1994, but in aggregate, has failed to deliver 'a better life for all'. Its societal and governance outcomes, especially in the last 10 years, have been horrific.

The ANC is central to the problem. A post-ANC solution needed.

1/ I've conducted a detailed analysis of the election outcome. The full write-up and my assessment of the implications can be found here: bit.ly/3k7ktmo

Some key stats in the thread below. 2/ TURNOUT % by demographic group:

White Afrikaans: 58%
White English 55%
Black, KZN IFP areas: 53%
Coloured: 48%
Indian 47%
Black, KZN ANC areas: 45%
Black, all areas outside KZN 41% (!!)

Extraordinary low turnout amongst black voters, especially outside KZN

1/ A quick thread on how the @News24 election projection model performed. I'll do a round-up of the metros now.

JOHANNESBURG:

Projected:
ANC 34%
DA 28%
ActionSA 17%
EFF 11%

Results, 98% counted:
ANC 34%
DA 26%
ActionSA 16%
EFF 11%

PA took more from DA than first projected. 2/ TSHWANE

Projected:
ANC 34%
DA 34%
EFF 11%
ActionSA 8%
FF+ 8%

Results, 97% counted
ANC 35%
DA 32%
EFF 11%
ActionSA 9%
FF+ 8%

DA a little less than we thought initially.

1/ Projection update:

NATIONAL PROJECTION
ANC 46.4%
DA 21.7%
EFF 10.5%
IFP 5.8%
ActionSA 2.5%
FF+ 2.4%

The ANC shifting down slightly as KZN comes in a little stronger for the IFP than the initial results suggested. 2/ Cape Town projection update, 55% counted

DA 58%
ANC 19%
EFF 4%
GOOD 4%
ACDP 3%

This one has held stable since about 5% counted

1/ I'm looking into the Johannesburg figures and there's a fascinating trend within the ActionSA vote that's worth discussing.

Suburbs, ActionSA:
PR: 18%
Ward: 13%

Townships, ActionSA:
PR: 18%
Ward: 14%

Inner City, ActionSA:
PR: 26%
Ward: 20%

Big difference, big impact. 2/ ALWAYS REMEMBER: Every single vote (ward and PR) is added into an overall pool to calculate the overall party % which determines seats. So if you lose some votes on ward, it lowers your overall percentage.

1/ Good morning! Some updates on the projections with the latest figures:

NATIONAL PROJECTION
ANC 46.5%
DA 21.8%
EFF 10.4%
IFP 5.7%
FF+ 2.4%
ActionSA 2.4% 2/ Johannesburg projection, 38% counted:

ANC 33%
DA 27%
ActionSA 16%
EFF 11%
IFP 2%
PA 2%
FF+ 2%

1/ Historic moment: @News24 projects that the ANC will for the first time ever receive less than 50% of the national vote.

NATIONAL PROJECTION:
ANC 47.2% (-7)
DA 21.8% (-5)
EFF 10.3% (+2)
IFP 5.3% (+1)
FF+ 2.5% (+2)
ActionSA 2.5% (+2.5)

news24.com/news24/electio… 2/ Key driver 1: Turnout
Low overall turnout and a a much bigger turnout in areas that didn't vote for the ANC.

ANC leaning areas: 40-45% turnout
Oppo leaning areas: 55-65% turnout

1/ Nelson Mandela Bay Projection!

DA 42% (-5)
ANC 40% (-2)
EFF 7% (+2)
FF+1%
ACDP 1%
UDM 1%
GOOD 1%
PA 1%

Some serious coalitioning on the cards here. Full story: bit.ly/2ZIpyuf 2/ This is a fascinating result!

Topic 1: Turnout
Suburban turnout: 54%
Northern areas (predominantly coloured): 48%
Township turnout: 40%

The gap is there, but it is much smaller than in some of the other metros. Part of why the DA isn't overperforming here.

1/ Our @News24 election projection tool has gone live! See it here: bit.ly/3pXzxGR

First Projection: CAPE TOWN
DA 58% (-8)
ANC 19% (-6)
EFF 5% (+2)
GOOD 3% (+3)
ACDP 3% (+2)

The loose percentage points going to various smaller parties (PA, FF+, etc.) 2/ What's driving this outcome in Cape Town?
- Enormous turnout differential between suburban and township voters
- The DA losing some of its vote to the FF+
- The DA losing some vote to GOOD, PA, ACDP, etc.

1/ So I'm hearing two things: Massive lines of people still waiting to vote all over; and the IEC expects first results at midnight (!). Much slower than anticipated.

In the meantime, a few things I'm looking out for tonight... 2/ TURNOUT

So what was real turnout at the end? I suspect it'll be higher than what the IEC is reporting because their system was down in some places... But still quite low overall.

We'll calculate the turnout pattern quite quickly, and also break it down by demographic group

1/ A lot of people have asked about wasted votes. This is the bottomline:

Every single vote (ward and PR) goes into a pool, with a % calculated for each party, and seats assigned. You DO NOT WASTE A VOTE if you vote for a party that loses a ward. That vote goes into the pool. 2/ There are two scenarios where your vote is 'mathematically' wasted in the sense that it does not count towards a seat in council.

Scenario 1: If you vote for an independent ward candidate that doesn't win the ward, your vote is discarded

1/ I'm getting a lot of questions from people about the election system, the seat formulas and especially what constitutes a 'wasted vote'.

So a short explainer below. Basically, there are no wasted votes, unless your ward vote goes for an independent that doesn't win the ward. 2/ Every person gets two votes, one PR and one Ward vote.

To simplify, think about it this way:

At the end of the day, the IEC counts all PR votes and all ward votes, combines them and adds them all into one pool.

1/ My sincere apologies for the delay. Here is the full ANC picture as promised, continuing from the thread below which already does Limpopo, Mpumalanga, Free State and North West.

We start with Gauteng below!

https://twitter.com/DawieScholtz/status/1326753475804459010

2/ Gauteng part 1: ANC contested 14

ANC % in each:
Merafong 23: 75% (+8)
Mogale 11: 66% (-7)
Midvaal 6: 76% (+1)
Emfuleni 43: 66% (-12)
Emfuleni 21: 63% (-1)
Emfuleni 16: 49% (+19 and gain from DA)
EKU 103: 78% (-)
EKU 89: 52% (+1)
EKU 60: 72% (-8)
JHB 9: 14% (-13)

1/ So let's talk about the ANC. A couple of high-level views:

- It's pretty obvious there are no big shifts. Stable to up for the ANC in aggregate.
- Should be noted that many wards were not contested by all the other parties, so the ANC numbers probably a little inflated. 2/ Limpopo: ANC contested 4 wards

ANC %
Giyani 1: 77% (-7)
Ba-Phalaborwa 19: 75% (-1)
Polokwane 14: 63% (+9)
Fetakgomo 34: 78% (+25)

Stable in aggregate.

1/ Yesterday was total DA disaster:

Western Cape DA % by ward

Cape Town 14: 73% (-7)
Cape Town 88: 22% (+3)
Saldanha 13: 47% (-28)
Paarl 3: 68% (-16)
George 8: 36% (-19)
George 14: 33% (-20)
George 17: 38% (-25)
George 27: 38% (-18)
Knysna 9: 76% (-17)
Knysna 10: 68% (-19) 2/ It contested 10 wards in the Western Cape and dropped double digits in 8 of the 10.

1/ So I've done some very interesting detailed demographic analysis for @News24 on the election. Check out this detailed thread for it.

Important note: This is a provisional first view done with only half the vote in or so. Will update with everything later. 2/ Deep-dive analysis: Black voters

National 2014
ANC 80.3%
DA 4.9%
EFF 9.6%

National 2019
ANC 71%
DA 5%
EFF 13.9%

The IFP and smaller parties got more this time.