Thread by @mmjukic

The modern economy runs on intellectual dark matter that is rapidly aging, retiring, or dying, and going unreplaced and unsucceeded. As a result, the modern economy will slowly begin to fail for reasons that will seem magical, incomprehensible, or impossible to ascertain.

https://twitter.com/owl_poster/status/1798768342981087661

I think Boeing is a clear case of this happening, in its early stages. Absent reform that is likely too difficult to pull off, we are just waiting for a major disaster and, then, the slow realization that nobody knows how to prevent the next one.

Read: brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/the-decay-of…

The strongest force counteracting this trend is the development of new traditions of knowledge and functional economic institutions coming from Silicon Valley types and China, who are both learning everything all over again, the hard way, starting from the laws of physics.

The so-called "competence crisis" is actually just a sub-category of a wider succession crisis. What goes unremarked upon is how many of the "diversity hires" are young and how many of the retiring outgoing hires are old. And they don't apprentice!

Read: palladiummag.com/2023/06/01/com…

Silicon Valley's attempts to start building hardware rather than software are perhaps a good thing not because they will result in reindustrialization of America—which is a political and civilizational problem—but because they will result in maintaining technical knowledge.

If Boeing is representative of the wider U.S. economy, the U.S. economy is doing the equivalent of forcibly retiring your experts in order to hire novices who are then told to start from scratch, on a smaller budget. This is a recipe for destroying intellectual dark matter.

I think European organizations will stay functional longer than U.S. ones because of, ironically, all the anti-business bureaucracy and regulation that prevents people from being fired or factories from being shut down. Hence I'm more positive on Airbus: brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/airbus-shows…

Silicon Valley live players won't be able to creatively destroy the entire modern industrial economy and rebuild it from scratch.

First, there aren't enough of them. Elon Musk already works five jobs! Second, there aren't enough workers to organize. Just college degree-holders.

You can neither innovate nor regulate your way to maintaining a modern industrial economy. You actually just need to maintain it by ensuring power and knowledge succession. If this has already failed, you need to directly install competent reformers and live players, by fiat.