Thread by @Tatarigami_UA

Summarized update from Frontelligence Insight on frontlines:

1/ The main Russian efforts remain in Donbas, particularly along the Pokrovsk-Chasiv Yar axis, which is currently the most difficult area. Vuhledar and Kupyansk areas are also key areas of focus. 🧵Thread:

2/ So far, Russian forces have failed to capitalize on the Kharkiv oblast incursion and did not achieve any operational successes in Donbas. They made tactical advances in Chasiv Yar, but given the number and higher-than-average quality of units there, progress is slow and costly

3/ As our team indicated months ago, the goal in Chasiv Yar isn't to hold the town at any cost but to ensure the enemy expends far more resources than planned, thereby crippling their ability to capitalize on its capture and develop an offensive towards Kostyantynivka

4/ While our team has observed the arrival and rotation of units near Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts, their numbers are relatively small. They wouldn't be able to achieve significant results if they launched an attack, likely achieving far less than the Russians did in Kharkiv.

5/ The Russian offensive may seem to be failing, but our team is thinking that such conclusions might be still premature. We continue to observe hundreds of vehicles, including tanks, APCs, and artillery systems, being relocated near Ukraine

6/ While the goals of these relocations are unclear, it's evident that Russia still retains offensive capabilities this summer and is capable of another large push before the window of opportunity closes for the year.

7/ While the trajectory is becoming much more optimistic for Ukraine, it's important to remember that despite the enormous losses the Russian military suffered near Avdiivka, including hundreds of lost vehicles in the first week of the October offensive, Avdiivka eventually fell.

8/ Even though the risk of a frontline collapse for Ukrainian forces is slim, Russian forces still have reserves and are capable of at least one serious push before their offensive loses its steam

9/ The full analysis will be released on our website later this week. In the meantime, please consider liking and sharing the first message in the thread.

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