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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Jun 10 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
What is interesting about these photos of the Su-57 before and after its Liutyi OWA Drone/Propeller cruise missile hit...

1/
 Relearning the Fragmentation Weapons Effect Baseline 🧵
...is that we now have a baseline satellite visual for how this Liutyi's 50 kg fragmentation warhead rips up an aircraft.

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And we can compare that weapon effect to a Tomahawk unitary warhead that is about 4.5 times more massive.

OSINT calibrating fragmentation damage to aircraft or other targets has been an issue in the Russo-Ukrainian War so far.
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I've tried to inject some fragmentation weapons effect calibration from photos in WW2 documents...

4/




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...but WW2 still photos and the very few airburst fragmentation strikes in the Russo-Ukrainian War simply have not made any real impressions...

5/
...as I laid out in this thread back in May 2024.

It is often the doom of men that they forget, but the failure to relearn the old lessons in this war really bugs me.

6/6 End


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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 9
Let's be clear, what happened to the Su-57 can and will happen to the F-22, the F-35, the Gripen or a Rafale.

The technological barriers to entry for a 1990's era Tomahawk class accuracy and range for OWA drone/propellor cruise missiles have fallen.

1/
It was clear in 2015 that with 3D printing and Google map overhead image database for a digital scene matching automatic correlation (DSMAC), we would see cheap, printed component, off the shelf, mini-Tomahawk IV cruise missiles available to mid-sized drug gang class...

2/ Image
...sized financial organizations inside of 10 years, AKA Ukrainian crowd funding of 2023-to-2024 sized.

Chinese microbolometer uncooled thermal imaging chips were a commodity in 2015 and were used by both sides of the 2014-2015 ATO in Donbas.

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Read 14 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 7
One of the things about flashes of insight, like the Truck Trailer - Coup one below, is you have to go back later and explain the logic chain behind them.

This chain requires explaining the Soviet state, when the RuAF lost its trailers & why Putin was blind to Wagner's coup.
1/
The Soviet Union's state was built on three legs.

1. The Communist party (CCCP)
2. The NKVD/KGB Secret Police
3. The Red Army

The CCCP played the Army against the secret police to keep power.

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Part of that structure was to remove non-commissioned officers from the Red Army as a "anti-Bonapartism" measure and fill the Red Army with CCCP political officers and secret police informants.

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Read 19 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 7
The vital thing in this picture isn't the Russian. It's the truck trailer.

This is the...7th?...time we have seen one of these bad boys from RuAF social media on X.

They 2x the payload of trucks for a slightly higher fuel cost & slightly lower convoy speed

RuAF Trailer🧵
1/
The US Army swears by trailers for tactical trucks because of their logistical efficiency.

As this light armored combat team infographic makes clear.

H/T @battle_order

2/ Image
The Family of Medium Tactical Vehicle family I worked with 13 years of my career were absolutely all in on tactical trailers.

It taught me why they were so logistically important for military truck fleets.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 6
Macron strikes back!

1. At Russia for it's GRU operative from Donbas bombing Charles De Gaulle airport and

2. At the USA for slow rolling F-16 pilot training.

1/
For the airport bombing see this link:

2/
 dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
I guarantee you that Ukrainian Mirage 2000-5 will have all the necessary pilots for peak sortie generation before NATO F-16's.

If only because France will allow non-Ukrainians to fly and fight for Ukraine.

Which the Biden Administration has forbidden for NATO F-16's.

3/3 End
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 6
Ukrainian media is reporting on the withdrawal/movement of Black Sea Fleet ships from Novorossiysk.

The following units are on the move:

Two Project 22160 patrol ships;
Two Buyan-class corvettes;
Two Ropucha-class landing ships;

1/
 mil.in.ua/en/news/russia…
One Ivan Gren-class landing ship;
One Tapir-class landing ship;
Two Kilo-class submarines;
Two Project 266M “Aquamarine-M” minesweepers;
One Project 12700 “Alexandrite” minesweeper.

2/
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The composition of the units involved reminds me of the UK Royal Navy's "Operation Pedestal" resupply convoy to Malta in August 1942.

The costly battle that resupplied Malta and saved the British position in North Africa.

3/

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Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 6
The collapse of VKS missileer competence compared to Soviet training and doctrine is so stark I don't know what to say.

The post-strike videos in Russia & Ukraine show no attempts to conceal or disperse SAM batteries or TELARs.

1/
This lack of tactical dispersal was the very thing that Soviet trainers of Arab regimes screamed their heads off about.

Yet VKS missileer's are repeating all the mistakes we have seen with Syrian SAM batteries fighting the Israelis.

2/
There are cultural/Regime security reasons for Arab regime SAM forces to be bad.

Air Forces are the seat of coups in Arab nations because you have to use the educated middle class to operate and maintain aircraft.

3/
Read 13 tweets

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