There is no precedent in modern French politics for a President calling an early parliamentary election from a position of weakness. @EmmanuelMacron has taken an enormous gamble - with his own reputation & legacy, as well as on the future of France. What is he thinking? Thread 1/
It was very likely Macron was going to be forced into an early parliamentary election in the autumn in any case. He's judged that he wd gain advantage from seizing the initiative with an early poll & make a virtue of “going to the people” before he was cornered into doing so 2/
Why forced? A volley of censure motions was expected on 2025 budget. If @GabrielAttal lost one or more of these, Macron wd have been more or less obliged to dissolve assembly. But while early elections have been my basecase before year end, I didn't expect them this soon 3/
Macron's hope is that the arguments which failed in the EU election campaign - support for Ukraine against Russia; the survival of EU; the confused & incoherent economic and EU policies of Le Pen etc - will cut through to voters when their direct interests are at risk 4/
Or more starkly: Macron believes he can defy the polls by confronting France with a stark choice between the pro-EU, pro-Ukraine & centrist status quo vs the existential risk of a far right Govt which remains viscerally anti-European & has a history of Putin worship & support 5/
Calculated risk or mad gamble? The 32% score for @MLP_officiel Rassemblement National in yesterday's European elections is a new high for the far right & puts Le Pen in a very, very strong position ahead of the two round vote on 30 June & 7 July 6/
But Le Pen's good EU score won't necessarily translate into a majority in a national election. Just > 50% of French voters turned out yesterday. Normally 70% do in national elections. No party that has “won” an EU election in France has gone onto win the following national one 7/
There are other reasons too, which I won't detail here, which will make the bar higher & harder for Le Pen. But unlike UK election (obvious @UKLabour win) or yesterday's EU elections (clear centre would hold) the risk of an accident here is much greater. France is restless 8/
Most of the concern has been over what a Le Pen President would mean for France & EU. A lot less attention has been paid to what a Le Pen (or her deputy, @J_Bardella) PM would mean for France & the EU. Luckily we've done a lot of work on this given our early election basecase 9/
If Le Pen won a majority or the largest number of seats, the implications for Fr & EU wd be profound. There have been 3 previous cohabitations between presidents & Govt's of different pol persuasions - but none between politicians so ideologically opposed as Macron & Le Pen 10/
The French constitution is both ambivalent & untested in such a situation. In large part that's where the risks will come from. I'll have more to say on this later. But France is likely moving towards a bad equilibrium - whether under a far right PM or another hung parliament END
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The enormity of the gamble @EmmanuelMacron has taken has not been lost on the most senior of EU officials in Bxl & EU capitals. Many are furious. It risks not only the stability of France & the EU, but also the bloc's ambitions on security & defence and longer term - Ukraine 1/
For months EU capitals have been toying with the idea of more common borrowing for EU security & defence. Paris is the biggest champion of the idea. Some call this a “€bond for defence”. Others a “Next GenerationEU 2.0” - a copycat of €750bn the EU brought online after Covid 2/
It is without doubt the single most important pol priority of @vonderleyen next term - EU security & defence, and the financing that underpins it. The @EU_Commission is due to present EU leaders with options for more common borrowing at their next gathering in Bxl on 27-8 June 3/
Final polls suggest @EmmanuelMacron faces a humiliating drubbing by Marine Le Pen’s Far Right when France votes in the European election today. The last IFOP tracking poll for Le Figaro on Friday gave Le Pen’s camp an 18.5 point lead – the highest since the tracker began. 1/
Other polls give Le Pen’s candidate Jordan Bardella a 16-point lead over the candidate for Macron’s centrist alliance, Valérie Hayer. A defeat on such a scale will heighten chances that Macron’s govt will lose a censure motion this Autumn – possibly forcing early elections. 2/
In several recent national elections, Le Pen’s party has failed to mobilise its supporters and underperformed the polls. The turn-out today could, therefore, be crucial. Surveys suggest that only half the French will vote, compared to 72% at the 2022 presidential election. 3/
Several Nato countries have agreed to send military instructors to Ukraine in “coalition” with France, President @EmmanuelMacron said tonight. 1/
“You asked me whether France is ready (to send instructors to Ukraine) alone. I can tell you that we are not alone. Several of our partners have already agreed to do this ,” Macron said at a joint press conference with President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Elysée Palace. 2/
Macron said he hoped to “finalise a coalition in the coming days” which would be ready to send military trainers to Ukraine “rapidly”. “This is a legitimate request by Ukraine” and is not an “escalation” of the war the|French President said. 3/
There'll be lots of noise over next few days about the far right surge in EU. The reality is more boring. First, because the centre will hold. Second, bc although there'll be more far right MEP's in Bxl, no majority & no organisation will limit their impact. EU election thread 1/
The current polls suggest the “centre” (comprising the centre-right @EPP, centre-left @TheProgressives @RenewEurope and @GreensEFA) will deliver a majority. They are projected to lose around 7% compared to 2019, but are on course for ~450 seats (361 = majority in @Europarl_EN) 2/
Even without the Greens, who weren't part of @vonderleyen governing majority over the last 5yrs, the three remaining centrist parties (@EPP @TheProgressives @RenewEurope) are still projected to secure ~400 seats. So the centre will have a majority even if less robust than 2019 3/
Dark clouds, including disastrous polls & 2 censure motions, are gathering for President @EmmanuelMacron as he prepares to welcome President Joe Biden, King Charles, Volodymyr Zelensky and a score of other world leaders to the 80th anniversary commemoration of D-Day this week. 1/
Macron’s PM, Gabriel Attal, faces two censure motions – tabled by the Far Right and Far Left – in the National Assembly this afternoon. He is unlikely to lose (and be forced to resign) because most of the swing bloc of 61 centre-right deputies will refuse to take part. 2/
The votes are, however, a warning of more hazardous censure motions which await Attal in the Autumn – including one probably tabled by the centre-right Les Républicains - when the European elections, Paris Olympics and summer break are out of the way. 3/
European elections will take place on 6-9 June. Their outcome will dictate 1/ who will lead EU institutions - @EU_Commission @eucopresident @Europarl_EN @eu_eeas - over next 5 years & 2/ what the EU's political priorities will be. Here's the picture I have after a week in Bxl 1/
.@vonderleyen is likely to win 2nd term as @EU_Commission president. @EPP will top EU poll - she is their candidate. In Bxl last week, senior officials from all EU capitals spoke highly about her tenure, even if there remain some concerns about her centralising governing style 2/
.@EmmanuelMacron has been the most ambivalent, but even he recognises @vonderleyen strengths. He just wont give her a blank cheque: @Elysee is holding back its support in order to shape priorities of next Commission - specifically wrt to more EU spending on security & defence 3/