What makes Budapest unique?
It wasn't just 2 cities (Buda + Pest) but 3-4!
Why?
And why is it where it is?
Why did it become the capital of Hungary?
It's no coincidence, and it explains the history of the country
Look at this:
Thread 🧵
The Pannonian Basin, this huge plain surrounded by mountains, was going to have a capital. But where would it be?
It would probably be on the main artery: the Danube, which splits the plain in half 1. Navigable all the way to Germany—fantastic for trade 2. Drinking water, great for living 3. Water for irrigation ➡️ crops
But early on the Danube had another huge advantage:
Look at the extent of the Roman Empire. Can you see what was its border in that region?
Let's zoom in: It was the Danube!
It was large enough that it was a perfect border, very hard to pass, so easy to defend
Romans built many cities on the Danube
The capital of the region would eventually be on that river. But where exactly?
The entire basin seems flat... but it's not
Left: topography of the Pannonian Basin (red=mountains)
Right: Highlighting the topography of the plain
Notice that mountain range that penetrates the basin?
If we zoom in, we see this well: Budapest is on the Danube, but also close to that mountain range. Why is this useful?
Because the elevation creates a ford, which makes the river more easily crossable (see yellowish on the image)
This is probably one of the reasons why the Romans built a city there—on an ancient trading path
This is what the Roman city looked like, compared to the Budapest area called Óbuda today (for Old Buda).
That pass was very important, because controlling it meant controlling both the west side of the Danube, the border, and the trade in the area
That's why the Romans built not one, not two, but three forts there!
• Aquincum was in the main city
• Transaquincum was on the other side of the Danube, to control all passage
• Contra Aquincum was where Pest is today
Notice by the way how all these cities are called after Aqua—latin for water. That's because Budapest is not only bathed by the Danube, but also by springs coming from the mountains nearby, and the dozens of hot springs in the region. Here's a mosaic of a Roman bath in Obuda
Today Budapest has the most hot springs and hot baths of any capital in the world
The Romans appreciated that, and so they built Aquincum (which became a capital of the Pannonia Region) because of:
• Danue
• Ford
• Trade
• Hot springs
But Buda & Pest are not where Aquincum or Transaquincum were. Why?
The Mongols
Horse-ridden, they were able to pass the mountains that protect the Pannonian basin
They destroyed the east
When winter came, it froze the Danube. They crossed it & destroyed the rest of the basin
The rulers decided it was not enough to have the protection of the Danube. They also needed the protection of a hill. So they moved the government south, to the Buda Hill
For some time, the government was split between Visegrád and Buda. You can imagine why by looking at a picture of the Visegrád castle:
Visegrád was easily defensible because of the mountains, but it had a big drawback: the mountains made trade very hard. It was far away from the commercial center.
What was the commercial center of the area?
Pest
Why?
Pest had already hosted Contra-Aquincum centuries earlier. What's special about it?
It's close to this ford we were discussing, but also something else:
• It's flat
• It used to be protected by an arm of the Danube! Here's a picture:
You can "see" that arm to this day, if you zoom in on the topography of the area. Look at the light blue area around Contra Aquincum with white lines and arrows (the colors mean it's at a lower level than the rest of the ground)
Over the centuries, Buda and Pest co-evolved and grew into the administrative & trading capital:
1. The region was great because:
• Danube ➡️ Trade
• Center of the Pannonian Basin ➡️ control
• On a traditional trade route, probably because of its ford
Buda and Pest are both in that region, clode to each other, but also:
2. Buda was defensible:
• On the west side of the Danube, good against attackers from the east
• On a hill
3. Pest was
• Flatter, so easier access to river trade
• Yet protected by an arm of the Danube
Over the centuries, Buda and Pest co-evolved:
• Buda became the administrative center, richer and calmer
• Pest became the trading center, bustling with life
They have conserved these characters to this day
Despite being connected by a permanent bridge in the 19th C
And that's why Budapest is the capital
I hope you enjoyed this! Follow me for more threads like this
Much more detail about Budapest in this (premium) article
Did you know the West's trade deficits to China are not recent, but started 2000 years ago? This is the story of how silk, porcelain, tea, opium, and silver have determined the history of the world 🧵
The Romans already complained about deficits to China! Mainly because of silk
Back then the Chinese already preferred manufacturing and selling products than consuming foreign products. Chronicler Solinus ~200 AD: The Chinese "prefer only to sell their products, but do not like to buy our goods."
Why did 🇮🇱Israel strike 🇮🇷Iran now, and not months or years ago or in the future?
A unique combination of a dozen factors converged to make the moment unique for 🇮🇱Israel: 🧵 1. No Hamas to its southwest 2. No Hezbollah to its north 3. No Assad threat to the northeast
4...
4. No more Syrian army to attack 🇮🇱Israel's planes: As the new forces of HTS took over Syria, Israel bombed all the existing Syrian military. No more fighter jets or surface-to-air missiles to threaten 🇮🇱Israel
5. Ability to fly over Syria to refuel
This is critical, because 🇮🇷Iran is ~600-1000 miles away from 🇮🇱Israel, so 1200-2000 miles round trip
The range of Israel’s stealth F35 is only about 1,350 mi
To operate inside 🇮🇷Iran, 🇮🇱Israel needed refueling over Syria
1. From Feb 2025 to Jun 2025, it increased its amount of enriched uranium by 50% 2. It now had 400kg of highly enriched uranium, enough for 9-10 bombs 3. This is 60% enriched uranium. Fuel only requires 5% enrichment.
4... 🧵
4. It's easy to go from 60% to 90% (weapons grade), it only takes weeks 5. The only country on Earth with such enriched uranium and without a bomb is 🇮🇷Iran 6. The IAEA (nuclear watchdog) found 3 secret nuclear sites
7. When 🇮🇷Iran didn't respond to this accusation, the IAEA censured it 8. 🇮🇷Iran responded to the censoring by saying it would open a 3rd enrichment site in a secret spot
Now that the 🇺🇸US has bombed 3 of 🇮🇷Iran's nuclear sites, where will the war go from here?
It depends on 🇮🇱Israel: 🧵
🇮🇷Iran never wanted the war, and its forces are being decimated. Its ability to send missiles to 🇮🇱Israel is being degraded every day. If it could sign a ceasefire while saving face, it would
Meanwhile, 🇮🇱Israel has kept striking Iran non stop. Its daily airstrikes didn't go down substantially in the first few days. Its ability to keep striking 🇮🇷Iran remains unabated
Can there be an invasion of Iran? Hardly. Two maps explain why, and also why Iran is the way it is today, whether its regime will fall, what other superpowers will do, and in general why Iran is the way it is today
The only truly exposed area is the southwestern corner of Khuzestan, which is a swamp
The biggest superpowers lie to the west, and there the very broad Zagros make it really hard to conquer Iran. The mountain range is tall and wide, making logistics similar to Afghanistan. Very hard.
Iraq learned it the hard way when it tried to attack there in 1980
Listening to the debate, it looks like 🇮🇱Israel & the 🇺🇸US intelligence community disagreed, but that's not really the case!
Both thought Iran was weeks to months away from being able to develop the bomb
So what's the disagreement?
Here are more facts:
• Tehran had just announced a 3rd enrichment site in an undisclosed place
• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had recently produced a report censoring Iran for the 1st time in 20y
• It accused Iran of 3 undisclosed nuclear sites
• It claimed Iran had enough enriched uranium for 9-10 nuclear bombs
• All the other countries in the world who have enriched uranium at the same level also have nuclear weapons. Iran is the only country that doesn't have these weapons yet enriches uranium as much