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Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
Jun 12 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Russian forces recently advanced SE of Kupyansk amid continued Russian ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on June 11. Geolocated footage published on June 11 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced east of Stepova Novoselivka (SE of Kupyansk). (1/3)

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2/ The Russian MoD and Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized the disincorporated settlement of Tymkivka (just west of Orlyanka [east of Kupyansk]) and Myasozharivka (west of Svatove).
3/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces also advanced near Ivanivka (southeast of Kupyansk) and Andriivka (west of Svatove). ISW has not observed visual confirmation of any of these claims.

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Jun 12
Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in the Lyptsi direction (north of Kharkiv City) amid continued fighting in northern Kharkiv Oblast on June 11. (1/4)
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2/ Geolocated footage published on June 10 shows that Ukrainian forces have regained positions along the O-212553 Lyptsi-Kharkiv City road southeast of Hlyboke (northeast of Lyptsi).
3/ The Russian MoD and several Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking in the Lyptsi direction, particularly near Hlyboke, which is consistent with the available geolocated evidence. Image
Read 4 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Jun 11
NEW: Ukrainian forces conducted a strike against Russian air defense assets in occupied Crimea overnight on June 9 to 10, likely with ATACMS. (1/2)Image
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2/ Ukrainian strikes against Russian military and logistics assets in connection to the US' partial removal of Russian sanctuary in Belgorod Oblast may have compelled Russian forces to change their deployment and transport patterns.

Ukraine latest: isw.pub/UkrWar061024
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3/ Ukraine's Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk denied on June 10 a Sky News report that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian Ropucha-class landing ship in the Sea of Azov on the night of June 8 to 9.
Read 9 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Jun 9
Russian forces have leveraged their possession of the theater-wide initiative to determine a tempo of fighting in Ukraine in recent months that appears to generate casualties roughly equal to or slightly less than the rate of newly generated forces. 🧵(1/5)
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2/ This careful balance between Russian casualties and newly generated forces requires that Russian forces not significantly intensify offensive operations for a prolonged period, however.
3/ This balance becomes even more narrow when considering losses and new force generation for only Russian combat personnel.
Read 5 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Jun 9
Russian forces recently advanced north of Kharkiv City, southeast of Kupyansk, within easternmost Chasiv Yar, northwest of Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City.

Map Updates 🧵(1/8)Image
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2/ Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted tactical counterattacks northeast of Kharkiv City in Vovchansk on June 7 and 8 while Russian forces continued offensive operations near Vovchansk, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area. ISW is unable to verify reports of successful Ukrainian counterattacks within Vovchansk at this time.Image
3/ Russian forces likely recently seized Hlyboke (north of Lyptsi) amid continued fighting in the area on June 8. Geolocated footage published on June 7 indicates that Russian forces advanced to southern Hlyboke and likely seized the settlement. Image
Read 8 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Jun 8
NEW: The IDF rescued four hostages in an operation in Nuseirat, central Gaza Strip. Palestinian fighters killed one Israeli officer during the rescue.🧵(1/6) Image
2/ Israeli War Cabinet minister Benny Gantz canceled a speech in which he was expected to announce his resignation from the Israeli coalition government.
3/ Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters in at least six locations across the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on June 7. Image
Read 6 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Jun 8
NEW: Putin articulated a theory of victory in Ukraine that assumes that Russian forces will be able to continue gradual advances indefinitely, prevent Ukraine from conducting successful operationally significant counteroffensive operations, and win a war of attrition. (🧵1/6)Image
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2/ Putin's theory of victory rests on Russia's ability to outlast and overcome pledged Western security assistance to Ukraine and Ukrainian efforts to mobilize more of its economy and population for the war effort.
3/ Putin likely assesses that Russian forces will be able to leverage their advantages in manpower and materiel to overwhelm on Ukrainian forces.
Read 6 tweets

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