Thread by @gesine_weber

Today in France's electoral campaign was... wild.

Didn't follow everything that happened? No worries, this thread has all the important (and maybe a few not so important) information for you. 🇫🇷

This is (of course) not about baguette, but France's legislative elections. 🔽

Context reminder: after a disastrous result at the EU elections, French President Macron called for snap legislative elections, which will be help on 30 June and 7 July.

These elections do *not* include the president, who is directly elected in presidential elections.

If you need a punchline for the day, "a reshuffling right and far-right" would probably fit.

Les Républicains (formally centre-right party, w/ members w/ far-right sympathies) and Reconquête (far-right even more far-right than Rassemblement National) had internal battles today.

On the left side of the political spectrum, things already took shape earlier this week: right after the announcement of the snap elections, seven parties joined forces in the "popular front" to counter the rise of the far-right. More: 🔽

https://x.com/gesine_weber/status/1800285716616003648

Yesterday, Eric Ciotti, then still president of Les Républicains, had announced that LR was going to form an alliance with the far-right Rassemblement National (RN). Leading members LR fired back, and called it an individual decision. Background:

https://x.com/gesine_weber/status/1800509783205920770

Today, the leadership team of LR was supposed to meet (to discuss exclusion of Ciotti). Consequence: Ciotti locked himself in their HQ, then left the building and locked out everyone else. The leadership meeting was held at a museum.

More:

https://x.com/gesine_weber/status/1800890825175597263

Result of the leadership meeting of LR: Ciotti is officially excluded, the leading figures of the party affirm that there is "only one LR label" (Larcher, Senate president). Ciotti still willing (and so are other LR members) to work with RN.

Result: it looks like LR is de facto falling apart. The party only had 61 (out of 577) seats in the last National Assembly, and won only six (out of 81) French seats in the EP elections. If a part of them is now working with RN, this further weakens LR.

Meanwhile, on the far-far-right (Reconquête), Marion Marechal, calls for supporting the alliance between RN and Ciotti, instead of Reconquête.

She ran herself for Reconquête in the EP elections, and their founder Zemmour opposes the move.

https://x.com/le_Parisien/status/1800946501994045519

Consequence: the big winner of today in French politics is Rassemblement National.
➡️ wins support from Ciotti and other LR members (although few leading figures)
➡️ wins support from leading figure in Reconquête, others might follow

Consequence for the electoral campaign: the far-right bloc grows.

However, even if the far-right forces manage to team up, the French parliament will likely be scattered: a current poll predicts 31% RN, 28% left bloc, 18% Macron party and allies.

latribune.fr/economie/franc…

Conclusion: this is probably just the beginning of a very messy campaign.

It will be a challenge for Macron to juggle domestic politics with a full agenda: G7 (13-15 June), Ukraine piece conference (15-16 June) informal EU27 meeting (17 June), top-jobs EUCO (28 June).

Adding this for additional context:

https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1800992019797479746