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Gesine Weber Profile picture
Gesine Weber
@gesine_weber
European defence & geopolitics. Research Fellow @gmfus, frml Visiting Scholar @Columbia_SIPA, PhD-ing @DSD_Kings. Also into languages, running, matcha.
Jun 24 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
First round of French legislative elections takes place on 30 June.

What do the parties actually say on security and defence, Ukraine, and in general foreign policy? Now that they all have published their programmes, here's a short overview (Ensemble, RN, Front Populaire): 🧵🇫🇷 In general, security and defence are clearly not the central topics of this electoral campaign. Instead, parties focus on questions related to social security, work, salaries, cost of living, and immigration. The exact ideas on Europe were laid out in the EU election programmes.
Jun 12 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Today in France's electoral campaign was... wild.

Didn't follow everything that happened? No worries, this thread has all the important (and maybe a few not so important) information for you. 🇫🇷

This is (of course) not about baguette, but France's legislative elections. 🔽 Context reminder: after a disastrous result at the EU elections, French President Macron called for snap legislative elections, which will be help on 30 June and 7 July.

These elections do *not* include the president, who is directly elected in presidential elections.
Jun 9 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
This is massive, and the impact on domestic politics can hardly be underestimated.

*But* these are parliamentary elections, which are detached from the position of the president.

Yes, strong RN will have significant impact, but not replace Macron by Le Pen.

Quick 🧵🇫🇷: Background: I see a lot of speculations here about a Le Pen presidency after the parliamentary elections.

This is not how the French constitution works: the president is elected directly by the citizens, not by parliament - and can stay in office w/o parliament majority.
Aug 28, 2023 • 22 tweets • 3 min read
Macron's speech was almost two hours - here's a not-so-short thread with the key elements on strategy, security and defence. 🇫🇷🧵

In a nutshell: strong focus on Europe's role in the world, and using the full foreign policy toolkit to defend French and European interests Analysis of the context/ world order: Europe risks decline because of structural factors (e.g. demography, economy...); international order is challenged.

Consequence: need for a "relatively simple diplomacy: defend our interests".
Jun 14, 2023 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
So the German security strategy is out - what does it say on Germany's place in Europe, European security, and EU/Germany-China? A thread: 🇩🇪🧵
#Sicherheitsstrategie Image First things first: here's the full document in English: nationalesicherheitsstrategie.de/National-Secur…
Jun 14, 2023 • 14 tweets • 2 min read
Strategy is being presented right now. Some elements in English below (thread with comments will follow separately): 🇩🇪⬇️ Scholz starts the conference and underlines that the idea to draft a strategy was already included in the coalition agreement before the Zeitenwende. Also underlines that the approach is integrated.
Jun 5, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Misleading title by @FinancialTimes: this wording ("humilité stratégique") was *not* used by Macron.

What Macron said:
- "autonomie stratégique" (autonomy)
- "lucidité stratégique" (clear-sightedness)
- "intimité stratégique" (intimacy)

ft.com/content/c8cb44… Why I think it matters to clarify this: there are many good elements in the text. Yet, adding just another "strategic XYZ" to the list of "strategic autonomy/ sovereignty/ intimacy..." will not make things clearer.
Mar 30, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
My first thoughts on the speech by EU Commission President @vonderleyen today at @epc_eu and @merics_eu: a balanced speech that did not fall into the trap of a great power competition narrative, but outlines a European way of dealing with China. Short (non-exhaustive)🧵: No sugar-coating of the challenges for the relationship: von der Leyen clearly addressed human rights, economic coercion, Chinese retaliation measures, and Russia-China relations. Clear statement on Ukraine peace plan as well.
Mar 20, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
At 16:00 CET, French MPs will vote the non-confidence motion at the National Assembly. 🇫🇷

Link to the lifestream ⬇️and a few points on what it means, what to watch, and why it matters 🧵:
videos.assemblee-nationale.fr/direct.php What it means (1/2): if 287 MPs vote in favour of the motion, Macron's government has to step down.

There is no mechanism leading to the dissolution of the parliament as a confidence of the non-confidence vote. But French president can decide to do so.
Mar 20, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
What to watch in France today, or better: whom to watch during the non-confidence vote? Excellent work by @ehouardvial for @Grand_Continent (and explanation below): The centrist group LIOT has initiated a non-confidence motion. Unlike motion presented by Rassemblement National, this one could get support from NUPES (left alliance with far-left, socialists, greens) and even Rassemblement National. If all vote in favour, 27 votes are needed...
Mar 19, 2023 • 19 tweets • 6 min read
This kind of tweets & discussions about France's security priorities (and support for Ukraine) are quite frequent among experts outside France - and symptom of a bigger underlying issue: a misunderstanding of France's security policy abroad, and a credibility problem. A 🧵: France's problem is mostly a communication problem - because France actually has adapted its strategic doctrines, commitments to European defence, and military spending in light of Russia's war on Ukraine. Yet, this is not what's most visible from the outside. Some quick facts:
Mar 17, 2023 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
Chaotic scenes from the parliament in #France 🇫🇷, everyone talking about article 49.3, pictures of riots in Paris...

Here's a short 🧵of what is happening, why it's happening, and what it means for France: Point of departure: Macron's big domestic policy project for this second term is the pension reform. The government argues that the reform is necessary to tackle France's problems with public debt, react to increased life expectancy, and tackle shortcomings of the current system.
Mar 14, 2023 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
On Monday, the UK 🇬🇧 published the "refresh" of its Integrated Review. Of course, I had a closer look at the European dimension of the document - a short (non-exhaustive) thread with some findings and comments: 🧵 Very clear signal in the very beginning: "the UK's overriding priority remains the Euro-Atlantic area" - listed first as geographic priority. While the UK's commitment to European security was also confirmed in the 2021 review, it was less clearly placed.