The wastewater data continues to show steep rises.
The wastewater picture is concerning.
This is the most number of "increasing utilities" since the first week of January.
MOST of the front range utilities except those in Colorado Springs are reporting increases.
The data from the wastewater median is BAD: the median has increased 24-fold since last week.
Yes, the 5-day median today (48,000 Covid Copies per liter) is 24 times HIGHER than it was last week (2,000).
See the chart below (this is the version I've been sharing recently)
The version above caps the y-axis to show the low numbers of recent months more clearly.
below is the full version, across the same time scale)
Our current level is similar to January/ Early February, but well below the December peak, which are about 4 times higher.
I also want to make clear that while I'm super annoyed that the median shot up over the last week, the levels remain low compared to most of the pandemic.
That said, if you've relaxed your protections recently due to low levels, it may be time to tighten up again given the rise
The variant data was released this week, updating for the full month of May. It's variant Soup again, after several months where JN.1 was dominant.
KP.3, one of the newest variants, was the most common variant sequenced (21%), closely followed by JN.1 (16%) and KP.2 (14%)
The Walgreens positivity Index drops slightly this week, though more tests were performed.
On to the H5N1 situation:
4 dairy herds with positive cattle have been affected (2 in Northeast Colorado, 2 unknown)
A domestic cat in Morgan County (NE Co) tested positive around the same time as the 2 additional herds were reported.
To sum it all up:
We have a new variant, and we are seeing a new rise in cases & hospitalizations.
Wastewater levels resemble those we saw in January 2024.
Please take care!
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I cant get over the feeling that what is happening on the national stage for all federal programs feels exactly like what happened under Biden to public health.
Im not bolstered knowing that in May 2021, Jan 2022 & ever since, Public Health leadership went along with it all./1
In May 2021, Biden wanted to appear to have defeated the pandemic, and removed the requirement for masks for vaccinated.
They said, “anyone who wants the shot can get one”, despite the fact that MANY people were still trying to find a vaccine appointment. /2
In July 2021, Governor Polis “ended the pandemic emergency”, even though the delta variant had just been detected in the state, & we were ramping up to the deadliest fall of the pandemic, and children were not yet eligible for the vaccine, leaving children statewide unprotected/3
CDPHE's wastewater team kindly updated the WW before the holiday, which is important as things have CHANGED.
This data is through 12/26, there are limited new reports included.
The COVID median rises to 53k, Flu & RSV are also up.
COVID & Flu are skyrocketing.
The COVID median climbs to 53k from 30k last Tuesday.
That said, the two most recent single day medians (12/25 & 12/26) are sky high (333k & & 236k respectively), and required me to extend the vertical axis to 400k so both could be seen.
That said, limited data points.
It's worth noting:
The 5 day median didnt rise more because 12/25-26 total only 10 data points, while the previous 3 days with reports had 17.
Also, there are NO reports for the days 12/20-12/24 due to the holiday.
I no longer believe in the infallibility of Colorado's COVID Wastewater data.
The @CDPHE wastewater team has changed processes repeatedly. Analysis shows the data isn't what it used to be.
/1
Ive long been beating a drum of the excellence of Wastewater as a tool to measure the burden of COVID in our state.
It didnt rely on humans being aware of the risk and choosing to take action (like seeking a test, or going to the hospital).
It just required they flush. /2
I believed that because the data showed that.
Colorado was an early innovator for wastewater. We had over a years worth of data showing how closely wastewater predicted cases.
And when it started to diverge, it was quite clearly tied to reduced testing availability. /3
Est 7day Avg Cases: 2476 (up 25% from 1980 last wk)
Est Community Transmission Level: High
Est 7-Day Incidence: 299 per 100k
The estimate climbs to its highest level since 12/23/23, and higher than most of the last 1.5 years.
The estimate places the current COVID level in the top 25% of weeks since the start of the pandemic.
The level of COVID in the wastewater is now higher than all but the peaks in:
- Nov '20,
- Nov '21 (Delta)
- Jan '22 (Omicron)
- July '22 (BA2)
- Nov '22
- Dec '23 (1 week)
The 5 day sentinel WW median, which was dipping last week, is now climbing again, and comes in at 127k, up from 119k on Wednesday and 98k last week.
While still below levels earlier this summer, it is higher than most of the year.