COVID in Colorado Weekly Update - 6/12/24

Reported Cases rises to 900 from 781, rising 15%!

Positivity drops to 6.2% (from 7.8).

Covid patients rises to 96 from 82.

The wastewater data continues to show steep rises. Image
The wastewater picture is concerning.
This is the most number of "increasing utilities" since the first week of January.
MOST of the front range utilities except those in Colorado Springs are reporting increases.
Image
Image
The data from the wastewater median is BAD: the median has increased 24-fold since last week.

Yes, the 5-day median today (48,000 Covid Copies per liter) is 24 times HIGHER than it was last week (2,000).

See the chart below (this is the version I've been sharing recently) Image
The version above caps the y-axis to show the low numbers of recent months more clearly.
below is the full version, across the same time scale)

Our current level is similar to January/ Early February, but well below the December peak, which are about 4 times higher. Image
I also want to make clear that while I'm super annoyed that the median shot up over the last week, the levels remain low compared to most of the pandemic.

That said, if you've relaxed your protections recently due to low levels, it may be time to tighten up again given the rise Image
The variant data was released this week, updating for the full month of May. It's variant Soup again, after several months where JN.1 was dominant.
KP.3, one of the newest variants, was the most common variant sequenced (21%), closely followed by JN.1 (16%) and KP.2 (14%) Image
The Walgreens positivity Index drops slightly this week, though more tests were performed. Image
On to the H5N1 situation:

4 dairy herds with positive cattle have been affected (2 in Northeast Colorado, 2 unknown)

A domestic cat in Morgan County (NE Co) tested positive around the same time as the 2 additional herds were reported. Image
To sum it all up:

We have a new variant, and we are seeing a new rise in cases & hospitalizations.

Wastewater levels resemble those we saw in January 2024.

Please take care! Image

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More from @CCSDMaskUp

Feb 19
Theres an entire FIELD of public health about this issue: public health promotion and behavior change.

There are proven models about how to get people to act in different ways than they have in the past, in different ways than they are used to.

#HealthBeliefModel
There are other models, but the Health Belief Model is my favorite.

It essentially says:

People need to belief they are susceptible BUT ALSO that their actions will make a difference.

They need to believe it is EASY to take the protective actions, & be prompted to take them Image
How do you adjust these BELIEFS?

You get people they trust to talk about their experiences.

You can change perceived threat both with data and stories.

You can change perceived benefit with data and stories.

The closer the person is to them, the more effective the message
Read 6 tweets
Jan 29
I cant get over the feeling that what is happening on the national stage for all federal programs feels exactly like what happened under Biden to public health.

Im not bolstered knowing that in May 2021, Jan 2022 & ever since, Public Health leadership went along with it all./1
In May 2021, Biden wanted to appear to have defeated the pandemic, and removed the requirement for masks for vaccinated.
They said, “anyone who wants the shot can get one”, despite the fact that MANY people were still trying to find a vaccine appointment. /2
In July 2021, Governor Polis “ended the pandemic emergency”, even though the delta variant had just been detected in the state, & we were ramping up to the deadliest fall of the pandemic, and children were not yet eligible for the vaccine, leaving children statewide unprotected/3
Read 12 tweets
Dec 31, 2024
CDPHE's wastewater team kindly updated the WW before the holiday, which is important as things have CHANGED.

This data is through 12/26, there are limited new reports included.
The COVID median rises to 53k, Flu & RSV are also up.
COVID & Flu are skyrocketing. Image
The COVID median climbs to 53k from 30k last Tuesday.

That said, the two most recent single day medians (12/25 & 12/26) are sky high (333k & & 236k respectively), and required me to extend the vertical axis to 400k so both could be seen.

That said, limited data points. Image
It's worth noting:

The 5 day median didnt rise more because 12/25-26 total only 10 data points, while the previous 3 days with reports had 17.

Also, there are NO reports for the days 12/20-12/24 due to the holiday.

So the lower data points are over a week old.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 9, 2024
Colorado COVID Wastewater analysis, a sad update:

I no longer believe in the infallibility of Colorado's COVID Wastewater data.

The @CDPHE wastewater team has changed processes repeatedly. Analysis shows the data isn't what it used to be.

/1 Image
Ive long been beating a drum of the excellence of Wastewater as a tool to measure the burden of COVID in our state.
It didnt rely on humans being aware of the risk and choosing to take action (like seeking a test, or going to the hospital).
It just required they flush. /2
I believed that because the data showed that.

Colorado was an early innovator for wastewater. We had over a years worth of data showing how closely wastewater predicted cases.

And when it started to diverge, it was quite clearly tied to reduced testing availability. /3 Image
Read 17 tweets
Oct 18, 2024
COVID Flu & RSV in Colorado update 10/17

The new dashboard is now working.

The data is presented the way you would present to epidemiologists, not the public.

We've lost:
# & trend of hospitalized COVID patients
# of reported cases
Complete Summary wastewater trends
🧵 Image
That said, there's good data here:

Hospitalization rate is down to 1.5 from 2.13 last week.
Thats equivalent to 88 admissions, vs 124 last week.
And down from a peak of 237 on 9/7/24.

Positivity is up slightly, up to 8.7% from 8.1% last week.

RSV and Flu remain VERY low
"Hospitalizations" gives a better breakdown of the admissions data

TOTAL THIS WK LAST
COVID: 213 88 125
Flu: 13 7 6
RSV: 3 1 2 Image
Read 11 tweets
Aug 30, 2024
Colorado COVID Wastewater Update - 8/30/24

Est 7day Avg Cases: 2476 (up 25% from 1980 last wk)

Est Community Transmission Level: High

Est 7-Day Incidence: 299 per 100k

The estimate climbs to its highest level since 12/23/23, and higher than most of the last 1.5 years. Image
The estimate places the current COVID level in the top 25% of weeks since the start of the pandemic.

The level of COVID in the wastewater is now higher than all but the peaks in:
- Nov '20,
- Nov '21 (Delta)
- Jan '22 (Omicron)
- July '22 (BA2)
- Nov '22
- Dec '23 (1 week) Image
The 5 day sentinel WW median, which was dipping last week, is now climbing again, and comes in at 127k, up from 119k on Wednesday and 98k last week.
While still below levels earlier this summer, it is higher than most of the year. Image
Read 5 tweets

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