In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll talk about the recent EU elections and what are their implications for both the Kremlin and Ukraine. Right-wing political parties, some pro-Kremlin, won a lot of seats around Europe, and this result can also change the EU’s stance on Ukraine.
1/19
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EU’s support of Ukraine is essential for their survival against genocidal Russia. So far,this support has been delayed mostly by Orban’s Hungary (& to some degree, Fico’s Slovakia). Now, this support will probably be challenged by many new members of the European Parliament.
3/19
Let’s start with some good news: many well-known vatniks failed to go through, including Mick Wallace, Clare Daly, Tatjana Zdanoka & Marcel de Graaff. Thierry Mariani & Maximilian Krah continue their "work" in the European Parliament.
First of all, the whole of EU took a hard right turn – the so-called “hard-right” got close to a quarter of all seats, and right-wing parties won big in France, Germany, Austria, Belgium and Italy. In Nordic countries, “hard-right” lost support to left-wing parties.
5/19
Many successful campaigns can be attributed to effective use of social media. For example Fidias Panayiotou, a man with no political experience but who has 2.6 million YouTube followers, won a seat in the European Parliament representing Cyprus.
6/19
And as we know, Russia and its allies Iran and the CCP thrive in these online environments, where their disinformation campaigns promote anti-Ukraine, euroskeptic narratives that try to undermine any support for Ukraine.
The success of right-wing parties...
7/19
...can be attributed to many everyday issues. Probably the biggest of these is immigration, and it’s also one of the most common narratives where Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns thrive:
…the liberal versus conservative debate, where the Kremlin also uses division to sow unrest, while falsely showing themselves as the conservative and traditional safe haven. In the EU, worries over climate change has led to the proposal of environmental regulations…
9/19
…such as carbon tax and restrictions on land use, which has, to some degree, led to price hikes. Naturally, all these themes are also closely connected to each other: rapid changes in climate drive immigration and affects farming.
10/19
My theory is that people didn’t really even consider Russia or Ukraine while voting, rather than just looking for people who could potentially solve problems that affect their day-to-day life. Issues like illegal immigration and asylum-seeking have been a great concern…
11/19
…to some since the 1990s, and employment, inflation & price increases are affecting almost everyone’s lives. Many conservatist parties rallied around these issues, praising traditionalism, nostalgia & “the good old times”, after seeing how well it worked for Viktor Orbán.
12/19
And this can also be seen from the campaigns of the successful parties: many on the right rallied against “wokeism”, the “global elites”, the EU becoming a “federal state”, EU immigration policies, “15 minute cities”, climate policies and the green transition.
13/19
Incidentally, all of these themes are very prominent in the Kremlin’s propaganda and disinformation campaigns in the West, and they’ve also started rallying around them long before the elections, going back over ten years. And this is what we in the West often fail to…
14/19
…understand when it comes to Russian active measures – they’re usually trying to change societies with long-term campaigning and information operations. And since we don’t fully understand their strategy, we’re usually reactive when we should be proactive.
15/19
But what does all of this mean for Ukraine?The European Parliament still remains very much pro-Ukraine, but over time,we’ll probably see some MEPs suggesting a softer stance on Russia. For example, since there’s money to be made,some will suggest easing up on the sanctions.
16/19
With groups like Sahra Wagenknecht’s party gaining momentum in Germany, the far-left gang will also constantly talk about peace negotiations, probably suggesting that Ukraine should agree to concessions to Russia:
Finnish MEP Li Andersson has shared her concerns over this far-left, pro-Kremlin bloc, even stating that Sahra Wagenknecht’s party (along with Wallace & Daly, who weren't elected) is not welcome in the The Left group unless they show their full support for Ukraine.
18/19
To conclude – as in 2019, several pro-Kremlin politicians were elected to the European Parliament. For now, this shouldn’t change support for Ukraine, but we will most probably see some softer stances in the Parliament on Russia in the near future.
In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll discuss the Wagner Group, its founders Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, and the mutiny they started on 23 Jun 2023. The event marked the climax of the Wagner Group–Russian MoD conflict, and finally led to the deaths of Prigozhin and Utkin.
1/22
Wagner has been used in many conflicts around the world, but they came to global prominence during the war in Donbas in 2014-2015. Wagnerites helped the Donbas separatists fight against the Ukrainians during the conflict, which helped Putin to “outsource” the insurrection.
2/22
The group doesn’t have any central ideology, but many of its members and leaders have ties to various neo—Nazi movements in Russia. For example, Wagner leader Dmitry Utkin had several Nazi symbols tattooed on his body. Neo—nazi group Rusich has also fights as part of Wagner.
3/22
In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll introduce an Amsterdam-based propaganda channel, Bonanza Media (@bonanzamedia2). It’s best-known for producing & spreading online pro-Kremlin propaganda videos while closely coordinating & collaborating with the Russian intelligence agency GRU.
1/19
Russian intelligence has been extremely active in the Netherlands for a long time. For example in 2018, four GRU agents were caught while trying to hack into OPCW,an organization that monitors the use of chemical weapons. In addition, the International Criminal Court (ICC)…
2/19
…and the MH17 investigation have become targets for the Russian intelligence and propaganda operations. These operations are often complemented with “investigative journalism” media outlets, that often echo the Kremlin’s propaganda and disinformation.
In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll discuss a specific propaganda/disinformation that the Kremlin likes to use – antisemitism. I also talk about how the Russian society itself has become riddled with antisemitism & how this has led to a decrease in Jewish population in the country.
1/19
Russian antisemitism works on many levels, and their narratives vary depending whether they’re targeting a local audience or people in Europe and the US. For example for the latter, Russia attempts to create a false narrative of Ukraine being an antisemitic “Nazi state”.
2/19
But before diving deeper, let’s look at a survey data of Russians in 2023: Nearly 30 million Russians harbour antisemitic attitudes, and 15% of those surveyed believed that “Jews were responsible for most of the world’s wars.” 38% think that the Jews have...
In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll introduce a Ukrainian media personality and propagandist, Diana Panchenko (@Panchenko_X). She’s best-known for betraying her own country by peddling anti-Zelenskyy and anti-Ukraine propaganda and disinformation for the Kremlin.
1/22
Panchenko was born in 1988 in the Mykolaev Oblast in Ukrainian SSR in 1988. She studied publishing and editing at the Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute and later graduated from Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv with a degree in law.
2/22
After graduating, Diana worked briefly for the news site . Between 2010 and 2015, Panchenko was a presenter for KyivTV, but she found her true calling as a pro-Kremlin propagandist after she was hired by a national “news channel” called NewsOne.
In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll introduce a Belarusian politician and dictator, Alexander Lukashenko. He’s best-known for giving up his country to Russia, and for cracking up political opposition and dissidents in Belarus, ruling the country with an iron fist.
1/19
Alexander was born in the Byelorussian SSR, living an unhappy childhood with his mother, taunted by his schoolmates due to being fatherless. His father’s identity is not known, but there’s a rumour that his father was a Roma traveler passing through the region.
2/19
Lukashenko joined the Soviet Communist Party in 1979, and a few years later he became the deputy chairman of a collective farm. By 1990, he had risen to the rank of Deputy to the Supreme Soviet of the Byelorussian SSR. He claimed to be an opponent of corruption…