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Lazarus Long Profile picture
@LazarusLong13
Jun 14, 2024 • 21 tweets • 10 min read • Read on X
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It will be a miracle if H5N1 does not go full explosive pandemic.

I actually spent a chunk of time trying to figure out how to get OSHA involved.

🧵 on what THEY know, and TRANSMISSION.

tinalexander.github.io/notes/2024/06
So, the USDA wants you to not be worried. They EXPECTED numbers to go up.

But they forgot to tell their boss, @SecVilsack, who says it will be isolated and burn out, because they have biosecurity plans available, and understand how it's transmitted.

agriculture.com/usda-aims-to-i…


We do see it as kind of a naive population where we see those numbers go up that’s expected. That’s not necessarily alarming in the sense of we understand how this disease spreads. However, to get really further ahead in this space. Again, it goes back to the biosecurity we’re really wanting all industries all to really up their biosecurity, have those enhanced biosecurity plans. We do have through our funding mechanisms, again, options for unaffected, as well as affected herds to both be able to increase biosecurity plans on site to one, keep disease out of their herds. And two, to keep d...
“We are trying to essentially corner the virus” within infected herds so it eventually dissipates, he said during a teleconference.
The USDA’s strategy against bird flu in dairy cattle is to identify infected herds and wait for the virus to die out within the herds, said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack on Monday. “I’m confident we have a good understanding of the virus and how it is being transferred,” he added.
He said that on June 4th, and when there were 80 herds, 9 states.

Now, there are 97 herds, 12 states.

Their preventive measures have been in place since May 1.

THEIR PREVENTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT WORKING.

Why? We have to know HOW it is transmitted.

A reporter asks the task force - obviously, you think contaminated clothes are the source.

Here's a good synopsis of the Michigan report they mention. That synopsis mentions that it would be good to implement the Secure Supply Biosecurity Plan.
. michiganfarmnews.com/usda-releases-…

I saw in the Michigan report, it talked about shared workers being that only transmission link between dairy and poultry. I mean, have you looked into the possibility that infected workers were the vector? Or is there a reason that you think contaminated clothing is more likely? Thanks.
Image
USDA APHIS replies that they know that shared clothing is a risk factor.

Got that - just a risk factor. We'll come back to that because I went digging.

@USDA_APHIS then goes on to state that they DEPEND ON PUBLIC HEALTH TO TELL THEM IF PEOPLE ARE INFECTED. I saw in the Michigan report, it talked about shared workers being that only transmission link between dairy and poultry. I mean, have you looked into the possibility that infected workers were the vector? Or is there a reason that you think contaminated clothing is more likely? Thanks. Kammy Johnson, APHIS [00:20:22] That’s a great question. And thank you for bringing that up. When we look at those genetic sequences, we do see that there are relationships and between those viruses, and we are relying on our public health colleagues to tell us and have some indicator on whether or not pe...
45 people have been tested. Total.
Across 12 states and 97 farms.

So, the USDA is telling us not to worry because they are depending on public health to test people to let us know if it is spreading in people.

Who are not being tested.

cdc.gov/bird-flu/h5-mo…
Image
Not coincidentally, did you know that 10% of poultry workers test positive for H5N1?

Per @NIOSH, in DHHS (NIOSH) Publication Number 2008–128



"Protecting Poultry Workers from Avian
Influenza (Bird Flu)"

In which they recommend respirators or PAPR. cdc.gov/niosh/docs/200…

Image
Image
Which brings us back to the vaunted @USDA_APHIS Secure Supply "No respirators required" plan from 2017 👇.


Image
Did you notice that @USDA_APHIS actually did NOT ANSWER if infected workers were the reason for the spread? Image
They just focused on the clothes.

But speaking of clothes - is it because your pants leg sneaks up into your nose?
No. It's because virus contaminated aerosols (dust, respiratory, fecal, milk - all possibilities) land on your clothes.

As you move, or wind hits them, they resuspend into the air., and they get inhaled.

This is why Secure Supply has Tyvek coveralls.

NIOSH also has Tyvek Image
coveralls. But NIOSH ALSO HAS RESPIRATORS, AND has a full on donning and doffing procedure. It is deliberately designed to lower the risk of inhaling those aerosols as you take off the overalls, gloves, boot coverings.

Remove clothes, coverings with respie and goggles on. Image
Then remove goggles and respirator. Wash hands. Image
Shower. Image
And that is just for clothes.

Respirators are also so workers don't inhale the aerosols straight from the dust, cow breath, dried fecal particles, milk aerosols.
When we turn to the vaunted Secure Supply BIOSECURITY website for dairy producers, not a respirator in site.

More examples....



PDF for

The ONLY time respirator is mentioned is in reference to spraying disinfectants. Once. securemilksupply.org/milk-producers…
securemilksupply.org/Assets/SMS_Enh…

Image
Image
securemilksupply.org/Assets/DAIRY_E…
Image
So, I am really at a loss as to get someone to change that Secure Supply website done in 2017 in light of the airborne aerosols of H5N1.

@CorsIAQ, I couldn't help notice that UC Davis was one of the contributors.

Any chance you can gt that dept to reach out?

Cheers either way!
Image
Image
@CorsIAQ Almost forgot - an assumption that @USDA_APHIS is making.

That public health will be able to have some indicator if people have been infected.

There is no such guarantee. There will be asymptomatics. Presymptomatics. Symptoms like SARS2.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…


Image
Image
Image
I was wrong. I said 97.

104 herds infected.

From 36 on May 1st which is when all of their current mitigations were all in place.

At what point, @Alexander_Tin @HelenBranswell, for the USDA and CDC, do they say the current strategy is not working?

Is this considered success @SecVilsack ?

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More from @LazarusLong13

Lazarus Long Profile picture
Oct 22
If you are Covid Aware you have probably been avoiding the dentist. Well, the dental studies have come to you.

This edition? #CovidAwareSoReducingDentalVisits - Water flossing (WF) edition.

Or, as I like to think of it, the Gum Salon.

Thread.
Flossing is necessary for those super tight contact points as you see in the above thread, and is great to remove plaque down 1 mm deep in the gum line (gently).

InterDental Brushes are fantastic and go down 2-3 mm into the gum line to remove plaque.

And WFs in general, are, well, amazing!!

They basically go back and forth with InterDental Brushes on which is better as far as being the top of the food chain for overall cleaning of the space between your teeth.

But.

If you have gum recession, you may have this Image
Read 19 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Oct 8
#CovidAwareSoReducingDentalVisits - less mouth open = less 'vid risk.

I am a GREAT flosser. My family thought we had genetic gum disease.

Below we can see rubber stick on the left, floss on the right, and a InterDental Brush (IDB) in the middle.

See the problem?
/1 Image
A couple more example pics on why I am sick to my stomach thinking of all that money wasted.

We THOUGHT we had great dentists. Not a single one mentioned IDBs, and how the bristles allow all interdental spaces to be reached.

And it gets better!

/2 Image
Image
IDBs actually reach down in between the gum and teeth - 2-3 mm. Floss? Only 1-2 mm.

As plaque grows down into and touches your gums, that's what causes them to get inflamed - and begin to retreat (very simplified).

If you brush that space? Problem solved.

/3 Floss, Interdental Brushes, and Waterpics Use all of them - floss works great for those narrow spaces. Interdental Brushes (IDB) work great in larger spaces. Waterpics work great immediately after eating, as you want to wait for an hour eating acidic/sweet just like regular brushing. It is a mistake to NOT IDB. Multiple studies indicate IDB is good, including this RCT where IDB was better than flossing (free version - great how to brush) - with people with chronic periodontitis. Students found IDB to be better. But IDB is better than rubber picks is better than floss. IDB way better ...
Read 25 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Oct 7
Covid Aware Teeth

The Calcium Lactate Rinse. Cheap, super easy to do - and it really enhances your fluoride uptake to re-enamel your enamel.

It's just not very well known, despite being very well supported within studies - and very cheap.

Mix 1/8 tsp with 1 oz water. Shake
thoroughly, till the granules disappear. Takes a few or 20 shakes, then just wait. Rinse for 1 minute. Spit out.

Immediately brush with fluoride or fluoride rinse.

There might be a better powder
amazon.com/dp/B0DHXX9LYC?…

1/8 tsp
amazon.com/dp/B0D5LH3K1H?…

pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC38… Image
I use the same 1 oz shaker as my stannous fluoride rinse comes in.

(That fluoride rinse was $4 cheaper at my dentist than this $24.

My Prevident 5000 ppm actually did not need a prescription - if bought from my dentist, as a couple of side notes.)

amazon.com/3M-ESPE-PerioM…
Read 24 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Sep 18
.On the one hand, we have study after study showing 36% or so rate of LongCovid.

On the other, we have the WHO saying the rate of LongCovid is only 6%.

I got curious. What drugs are the WHO smoking - and can I get some?

🧵. Image
My 36% comes from the latest massive meta:
eatg.org/hiv-news/more-…

But what about that 6%?

Turns out it's this old chestnut from 2022.

And there are such major players on it...so many I can't even screenshot them all.

But I fear no title - and neither

jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/… Image
will you.

The problem with this 6%? There are 200+ symptoms in the LongCovid symptoms constellation.

This study focuses on three clusters.

Which is incredibly vague, which is normal for the WHO.

So, after digging through the f***ing supplement, there are a few symptoms Image
Read 10 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Sep 7
COVID is as transmissible as measles?!

"BUT, BUT, measles can infect up to 90% of people they are in contact with!"

So can COVID.

Time to wake up. The lecturer tried to promote sales of a flax oil product, and many elderly people were lured to attend by the promise of free eggs, Xinhua News Agency reported. He gave three lectures on Jan 10 and 11 in a Tonghua classroom while not wearing a mask, with each lecture lasting about 2.5 hours. A total of 97 people, most of them retirees, attended the lectures in a classroom whose doors and windows were closed, the China CDC report said. The lecturer went to a pharmacy at noon on Jan 10 due to muscle pain and other symptoms, indicating he was likely at an early stage of the disease then, it ...
weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi…

govt.chinadaily.com.cn/s/202102/20/WS… Image
So, some will be pushing back - always welcome, albeit this is anticipated.

Rnaught is just an estimate.

The famous measles 12-18 is shown below.

But the R0 of 6-8 has the most estimates.

Free
sci-hub.se/https://doi.or…

Pay
sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
Read 8 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Sep 6
Remember THAT scene from Outbreak with Dustin Hoffman - "It's Airborne." ?

SARS-COV-2 is airborne via HVAC. Just like TB is - but it is way more contagious.

Still no panic, right? We know how to be safe.

Motel 6, or AirBNB - no shared HVAC, is best.

But HOW do we know?

🧵
A recent study in South Africa used Syrian Hamsters to duplicate the study that finally convinced everyone that TB was airborne.

The TB study is interesting because the military vets in VA hospitals were getting infected disproportionately.

So, they used HVAC ducting to In 1956, tuberculosis was a major global killer, and it disproportionately affected military veterans hospitalized in the Veterans Administration hospital system. Then, as now with COVID-19, epidemiologists held that tuberculosis and other respiratory diseases were spread by large infected droplets through person-to-person contact or contaminated surfaces. But Richard L. Riley, an expert on lung physiology at the then Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health, and his mentor, William F. Wells, had identified another possible mode of transmission.
connect a 6 room TB ward to 150 guinea pigs.

Of those 150, only 3 PER MONTH got infected.

Illustrating that TRANSMISSIBILITY is just a CLUE to if something is airborne.

Dr. Riley went on to patent UVC tech, and develop the Wells-Riley equation which is so important in airborne Atop the Baltimore VA Hospital, they constructed an air-tight closed ventilation system that connected a six-room tuberculosis ward to an exposure chamber with 150 guinea pigs. (Among rodent animal models, only guinea pigs could cough and sneeze, making them ideal for studying how respiratory diseases spread.) The guinea pigs were exposed to the infected air over a four-year period. A second group of 150 guinea pigs acted as controls: their air ducts were irradiated with UV-C lamps to kill TB bacilli.
In the test group, an average of three guinea pigs per month contracted TB, while no controls were infected. The experiment not only proved the airborne disease transmission of tuberculosis for the first time, but also quantified how many TB infections could be expected to result from exposure to a given number of patients over a defined interval.
The insights from the Baltimore VA Hospital studies were later used to develop the Wells-Riley equation, which quantifies infection risk and informs strategies to ensure staff and patient safety in contagious clinical environments. The model can also calculate the risks of transmission for airborne infections on planes and trains, in prisons, and in other public and institutional spaces. As chair of the Department of Environmental Medicine from 1960 to 1977, Riley warned that the danger of infection from airborne diseases was increasing as people spent more time indoors and air conditionin...
Read 8 tweets

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