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Lazarus Long Profile picture
@LazarusLong13
Jun 14, 2024 • 21 tweets • 10 min read • Read on X
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It will be a miracle if H5N1 does not go full explosive pandemic.

I actually spent a chunk of time trying to figure out how to get OSHA involved.

🧵 on what THEY know, and TRANSMISSION.

tinalexander.github.io/notes/2024/06
So, the USDA wants you to not be worried. They EXPECTED numbers to go up.

But they forgot to tell their boss, @SecVilsack, who says it will be isolated and burn out, because they have biosecurity plans available, and understand how it's transmitted.

agriculture.com/usda-aims-to-i…


We do see it as kind of a naive population where we see those numbers go up that’s expected. That’s not necessarily alarming in the sense of we understand how this disease spreads. However, to get really further ahead in this space. Again, it goes back to the biosecurity we’re really wanting all industries all to really up their biosecurity, have those enhanced biosecurity plans. We do have through our funding mechanisms, again, options for unaffected, as well as affected herds to both be able to increase biosecurity plans on site to one, keep disease out of their herds. And two, to keep d...
“We are trying to essentially corner the virus” within infected herds so it eventually dissipates, he said during a teleconference.
The USDA’s strategy against bird flu in dairy cattle is to identify infected herds and wait for the virus to die out within the herds, said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack on Monday. “I’m confident we have a good understanding of the virus and how it is being transferred,” he added.
He said that on June 4th, and when there were 80 herds, 9 states.

Now, there are 97 herds, 12 states.

Their preventive measures have been in place since May 1.

THEIR PREVENTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT WORKING.

Why? We have to know HOW it is transmitted.

A reporter asks the task force - obviously, you think contaminated clothes are the source.

Here's a good synopsis of the Michigan report they mention. That synopsis mentions that it would be good to implement the Secure Supply Biosecurity Plan.
. michiganfarmnews.com/usda-releases-…

I saw in the Michigan report, it talked about shared workers being that only transmission link between dairy and poultry. I mean, have you looked into the possibility that infected workers were the vector? Or is there a reason that you think contaminated clothing is more likely? Thanks.
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USDA APHIS replies that they know that shared clothing is a risk factor.

Got that - just a risk factor. We'll come back to that because I went digging.

@USDA_APHIS then goes on to state that they DEPEND ON PUBLIC HEALTH TO TELL THEM IF PEOPLE ARE INFECTED. I saw in the Michigan report, it talked about shared workers being that only transmission link between dairy and poultry. I mean, have you looked into the possibility that infected workers were the vector? Or is there a reason that you think contaminated clothing is more likely? Thanks. Kammy Johnson, APHIS [00:20:22] That’s a great question. And thank you for bringing that up. When we look at those genetic sequences, we do see that there are relationships and between those viruses, and we are relying on our public health colleagues to tell us and have some indicator on whether or not pe...
45 people have been tested. Total.
Across 12 states and 97 farms.

So, the USDA is telling us not to worry because they are depending on public health to test people to let us know if it is spreading in people.

Who are not being tested.

cdc.gov/bird-flu/h5-mo…
Image
Not coincidentally, did you know that 10% of poultry workers test positive for H5N1?

Per @NIOSH, in DHHS (NIOSH) Publication Number 2008–128



"Protecting Poultry Workers from Avian
Influenza (Bird Flu)"

In which they recommend respirators or PAPR. cdc.gov/niosh/docs/200…

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Which brings us back to the vaunted @USDA_APHIS Secure Supply "No respirators required" plan from 2017 👇.


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Did you notice that @USDA_APHIS actually did NOT ANSWER if infected workers were the reason for the spread? Image
They just focused on the clothes.

But speaking of clothes - is it because your pants leg sneaks up into your nose?
No. It's because virus contaminated aerosols (dust, respiratory, fecal, milk - all possibilities) land on your clothes.

As you move, or wind hits them, they resuspend into the air., and they get inhaled.

This is why Secure Supply has Tyvek coveralls.

NIOSH also has Tyvek Image
coveralls. But NIOSH ALSO HAS RESPIRATORS, AND has a full on donning and doffing procedure. It is deliberately designed to lower the risk of inhaling those aerosols as you take off the overalls, gloves, boot coverings.

Remove clothes, coverings with respie and goggles on. Image
Then remove goggles and respirator. Wash hands. Image
Shower. Image
And that is just for clothes.

Respirators are also so workers don't inhale the aerosols straight from the dust, cow breath, dried fecal particles, milk aerosols.
When we turn to the vaunted Secure Supply BIOSECURITY website for dairy producers, not a respirator in site.

More examples....



PDF for

The ONLY time respirator is mentioned is in reference to spraying disinfectants. Once. securemilksupply.org/milk-producers…
securemilksupply.org/Assets/SMS_Enh…

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securemilksupply.org/Assets/DAIRY_E…
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So, I am really at a loss as to get someone to change that Secure Supply website done in 2017 in light of the airborne aerosols of H5N1.

@CorsIAQ, I couldn't help notice that UC Davis was one of the contributors.

Any chance you can gt that dept to reach out?

Cheers either way!
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@CorsIAQ Almost forgot - an assumption that @USDA_APHIS is making.

That public health will be able to have some indicator if people have been infected.

There is no such guarantee. There will be asymptomatics. Presymptomatics. Symptoms like SARS2.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…


Image
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I was wrong. I said 97.

104 herds infected.

From 36 on May 1st which is when all of their current mitigations were all in place.

At what point, @Alexander_Tin @HelenBranswell, for the USDA and CDC, do they say the current strategy is not working?

Is this considered success @SecVilsack ?

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More from @LazarusLong13

Lazarus Long Profile picture
Sep 7
COVID is as transmissible as measles?!

"BUT, BUT, measles can infect up to 90% of people they are in contact with!"

So can COVID.

Time to wake up. The lecturer tried to promote sales of a flax oil product, and many elderly people were lured to attend by the promise of free eggs, Xinhua News Agency reported. He gave three lectures on Jan 10 and 11 in a Tonghua classroom while not wearing a mask, with each lecture lasting about 2.5 hours. A total of 97 people, most of them retirees, attended the lectures in a classroom whose doors and windows were closed, the China CDC report said. The lecturer went to a pharmacy at noon on Jan 10 due to muscle pain and other symptoms, indicating he was likely at an early stage of the disease then, it ...
weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi…

govt.chinadaily.com.cn/s/202102/20/WS… Image
So, some will be pushing back - always welcome, albeit this is anticipated.

Rnaught is just an estimate.

The famous measles 12-18 is shown below.

But the R0 of 6-8 has the most estimates.

Free
sci-hub.se/https://doi.or…

Pay
sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
Read 8 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Sep 6
Remember THAT scene from Outbreak with Dustin Hoffman - "It's Airborne." ?

SARS-COV-2 is airborne via HVAC. Just like TB is - but it is way more contagious.

Still no panic, right? We know how to be safe.

Motel 6, or AirBNB - no shared HVAC, is best.

But HOW do we know?

🧵
A recent study in South Africa used Syrian Hamsters to duplicate the study that finally convinced everyone that TB was airborne.

The TB study is interesting because the military vets in VA hospitals were getting infected disproportionately.

So, they used HVAC ducting to In 1956, tuberculosis was a major global killer, and it disproportionately affected military veterans hospitalized in the Veterans Administration hospital system. Then, as now with COVID-19, epidemiologists held that tuberculosis and other respiratory diseases were spread by large infected droplets through person-to-person contact or contaminated surfaces. But Richard L. Riley, an expert on lung physiology at the then Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health, and his mentor, William F. Wells, had identified another possible mode of transmission.
connect a 6 room TB ward to 150 guinea pigs.

Of those 150, only 3 PER MONTH got infected.

Illustrating that TRANSMISSIBILITY is just a CLUE to if something is airborne.

Dr. Riley went on to patent UVC tech, and develop the Wells-Riley equation which is so important in airborne Atop the Baltimore VA Hospital, they constructed an air-tight closed ventilation system that connected a six-room tuberculosis ward to an exposure chamber with 150 guinea pigs. (Among rodent animal models, only guinea pigs could cough and sneeze, making them ideal for studying how respiratory diseases spread.) The guinea pigs were exposed to the infected air over a four-year period. A second group of 150 guinea pigs acted as controls: their air ducts were irradiated with UV-C lamps to kill TB bacilli.
In the test group, an average of three guinea pigs per month contracted TB, while no controls were infected. The experiment not only proved the airborne disease transmission of tuberculosis for the first time, but also quantified how many TB infections could be expected to result from exposure to a given number of patients over a defined interval.
The insights from the Baltimore VA Hospital studies were later used to develop the Wells-Riley equation, which quantifies infection risk and informs strategies to ensure staff and patient safety in contagious clinical environments. The model can also calculate the risks of transmission for airborne infections on planes and trains, in prisons, and in other public and institutional spaces. As chair of the Department of Environmental Medicine from 1960 to 1977, Riley warned that the danger of infection from airborne diseases was increasing as people spent more time indoors and air conditionin...
Read 8 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Sep 1
Plaque, Stephan's Curve (Imperative) mixed with breakfasts that you can brush immediately after.

It's actually best if you brush immediately up on waking up. This gets the overnight plaque.

It starts forming 4-6 hours after you sleep - your saliva is 20 millititers/hr Dental Plaque on the bristles of a used toothbrush. Yep, that came out of your mouth.
- during the day. At night? Just 3-6 ml.

Saliva washes away the bacteria, it contains bicarbonate, phosphate, and protein buffers that neutralize the acids being pooped out by the bacteria.

It also has the below ingredients. Who knew saliva was so cool?!

Or plaque? Antimicrobial Components Lysozyme: breaks down bacterial cell walls. Lactoferrin: binds iron, starving bacteria. Peroxidases: inhibit bacterial metabolism. Immunoglobulin A (IgA): prevents bacterial adhesion to teeth.
Plauque forming bacteria.
By brushing first thing, fluoridating, and then waiting a 1/2 hour before eating, you just prepped your teeth for their Acid Trip through the day.

Like if you like salsa on your breakfast burrito like I do.

But what is a good breakfast if you have NO TIME to wait for the 60 tripping the light fantastic.
Read 35 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Aug 27
Ah, it's that time of year again. The pitter patter of children's feet. The laughter of high school students as they flirt with each other.

The coughs of their parents.

Is a Portable Air Cleaner (PAC) on a desk aimed at the wee ones' faces going to protect them? Spicoli from Fast Times at Ridgemont High with a Levoit Air Cleaner pointing at his face braced up with a weight. In the middle of his pizza. Not cool, man, not cool.
TLDR? No. They need to be in a N95 or KF94 purchased from legit distributors, not from Amazon, and eat their food outdoors, spaced far enough away from their friends so as not get infected. Or use @sipmask and protein shakes at lunch in the cafetaria.

You need to teach them
about how it can take as little as one breath of uncleaned-air to get infected (100 virions study on my profile). How it can mess them up in terms of their entire body.

You need to have the "Birds and the Bees and Covid" talk, in other words.

But will a PAC aimed at their
Read 24 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Aug 23
People often underestimate the power of having someone with the reputation of Wolfgang Leitner, weighing in.

This is truly a significant development.

Personally, I prefer to let the studies do their own talking, but Voice Of Authority bears considerable weight in the real world
Just a few awards Image
An actual Conference Organizer. You underestimate the political savvy and pull this takes - and gives them. Image
Read 7 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Aug 21
Calley is lying from the very first sentence. The media is not cheering for MAHA to fail. They are cheering for antivaxxers to fail.

We all want to see better food, less chemicals.

But we are not idiots.

The single largest gain in American life expectancy was
between 1900 and 1940, primarily because of improved water & sewer sanitation. Adding 16 years of life expectancy.

And vaccines are a close second - adding 5-10 years a bit later - in the last half of the century.

If we get rid of vaccines? We lose 5 to 26 years, depending
if we lose smallpox and diptheria.

There's another thing. Calley wants us working on the below things.

The Red Arrows point to things that will not mean a thing because of the next tweet. Image
Read 15 tweets

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