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Lazarus Long Profile picture
@LazarusLong13
Jun 14, 2024 • 21 tweets • 10 min read • Read on X
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It will be a miracle if H5N1 does not go full explosive pandemic.

I actually spent a chunk of time trying to figure out how to get OSHA involved.

🧵 on what THEY know, and TRANSMISSION.

tinalexander.github.io/notes/2024/06
So, the USDA wants you to not be worried. They EXPECTED numbers to go up.

But they forgot to tell their boss, @SecVilsack, who says it will be isolated and burn out, because they have biosecurity plans available, and understand how it's transmitted.

agriculture.com/usda-aims-to-i…


We do see it as kind of a naive population where we see those numbers go up that’s expected. That’s not necessarily alarming in the sense of we understand how this disease spreads. However, to get really further ahead in this space. Again, it goes back to the biosecurity we’re really wanting all industries all to really up their biosecurity, have those enhanced biosecurity plans. We do have through our funding mechanisms, again, options for unaffected, as well as affected herds to both be able to increase biosecurity plans on site to one, keep disease out of their herds. And two, to keep d...
“We are trying to essentially corner the virus” within infected herds so it eventually dissipates, he said during a teleconference.
The USDA’s strategy against bird flu in dairy cattle is to identify infected herds and wait for the virus to die out within the herds, said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack on Monday. “I’m confident we have a good understanding of the virus and how it is being transferred,” he added.
He said that on June 4th, and when there were 80 herds, 9 states.

Now, there are 97 herds, 12 states.

Their preventive measures have been in place since May 1.

THEIR PREVENTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT WORKING.

Why? We have to know HOW it is transmitted.

A reporter asks the task force - obviously, you think contaminated clothes are the source.

Here's a good synopsis of the Michigan report they mention. That synopsis mentions that it would be good to implement the Secure Supply Biosecurity Plan.
. michiganfarmnews.com/usda-releases-…

I saw in the Michigan report, it talked about shared workers being that only transmission link between dairy and poultry. I mean, have you looked into the possibility that infected workers were the vector? Or is there a reason that you think contaminated clothing is more likely? Thanks.
Image
USDA APHIS replies that they know that shared clothing is a risk factor.

Got that - just a risk factor. We'll come back to that because I went digging.

@USDA_APHIS then goes on to state that they DEPEND ON PUBLIC HEALTH TO TELL THEM IF PEOPLE ARE INFECTED. I saw in the Michigan report, it talked about shared workers being that only transmission link between dairy and poultry. I mean, have you looked into the possibility that infected workers were the vector? Or is there a reason that you think contaminated clothing is more likely? Thanks. Kammy Johnson, APHIS [00:20:22] That’s a great question. And thank you for bringing that up. When we look at those genetic sequences, we do see that there are relationships and between those viruses, and we are relying on our public health colleagues to tell us and have some indicator on whether or not pe...
45 people have been tested. Total.
Across 12 states and 97 farms.

So, the USDA is telling us not to worry because they are depending on public health to test people to let us know if it is spreading in people.

Who are not being tested.

cdc.gov/bird-flu/h5-mo…
Image
Not coincidentally, did you know that 10% of poultry workers test positive for H5N1?

Per @NIOSH, in DHHS (NIOSH) Publication Number 2008–128



"Protecting Poultry Workers from Avian
Influenza (Bird Flu)"

In which they recommend respirators or PAPR. cdc.gov/niosh/docs/200…

Image
Image
Which brings us back to the vaunted @USDA_APHIS Secure Supply "No respirators required" plan from 2017 👇.


Image
Did you notice that @USDA_APHIS actually did NOT ANSWER if infected workers were the reason for the spread? Image
They just focused on the clothes.

But speaking of clothes - is it because your pants leg sneaks up into your nose?
No. It's because virus contaminated aerosols (dust, respiratory, fecal, milk - all possibilities) land on your clothes.

As you move, or wind hits them, they resuspend into the air., and they get inhaled.

This is why Secure Supply has Tyvek coveralls.

NIOSH also has Tyvek Image
coveralls. But NIOSH ALSO HAS RESPIRATORS, AND has a full on donning and doffing procedure. It is deliberately designed to lower the risk of inhaling those aerosols as you take off the overalls, gloves, boot coverings.

Remove clothes, coverings with respie and goggles on. Image
Then remove goggles and respirator. Wash hands. Image
Shower. Image
And that is just for clothes.

Respirators are also so workers don't inhale the aerosols straight from the dust, cow breath, dried fecal particles, milk aerosols.
When we turn to the vaunted Secure Supply BIOSECURITY website for dairy producers, not a respirator in site.

More examples....



PDF for

The ONLY time respirator is mentioned is in reference to spraying disinfectants. Once. securemilksupply.org/milk-producers…
securemilksupply.org/Assets/SMS_Enh…

Image
Image
securemilksupply.org/Assets/DAIRY_E…
Image
So, I am really at a loss as to get someone to change that Secure Supply website done in 2017 in light of the airborne aerosols of H5N1.

@CorsIAQ, I couldn't help notice that UC Davis was one of the contributors.

Any chance you can gt that dept to reach out?

Cheers either way!
Image
Image
@CorsIAQ Almost forgot - an assumption that @USDA_APHIS is making.

That public health will be able to have some indicator if people have been infected.

There is no such guarantee. There will be asymptomatics. Presymptomatics. Symptoms like SARS2.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…


Image
Image
Image
I was wrong. I said 97.

104 herds infected.

From 36 on May 1st which is when all of their current mitigations were all in place.

At what point, @Alexander_Tin @HelenBranswell, for the USDA and CDC, do they say the current strategy is not working?

Is this considered success @SecVilsack ?

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More from @LazarusLong13

Lazarus Long Profile picture
Mar 22
This may be one of the most important studies in a decade.

#LongCovidBinder.

"The models produced correctly classified those with severe ME/CFS from recovered controls with an accuracy of 97%, sensitivity of 94%, and specificity of 100%. "

THAT IS HUGE.
"We found that at Stage 1, those fated to develop ME/CFS 6 months following IM had low levels of IL-5 and IL-13 [25]. " We found that at Stage 1, those fated to develop ME/CFS 6 months following IM had low levels of IL-5 and IL-13 [25]. IL-5 enhances the production of B1 cells which are anti-inflammatory (impaired B1 cells have been found in multiple sclerosis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and rheumatoid arthritis), and IL-13 has anti-inflammatory properties. Jason et al. [26] also found that students who failed to recover from IM had more restricted, inflexible cytokine networks whereas those who recovered had more flexible, less interconnected networks. Network analysis suggests that IL-5 and IL-13 influe...
So, this means ME/CFS can be predicted.

And what can be predicted - treatments can be found.

And they are studying LongCovid as well.

This study is easy to read, And everyone should.

/+

mdpi.com/2076-2607/13/4…
Read 6 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Mar 13
A new study just showed what I have been saying since the start of bird flu. H5N1 is airborne.

Still in place?
USDA: YOU ONLY NEED TO TEST LACTATING COWS.

oops.

USDA: FOMITES (infectious objects) SPREAD IT.

oops.

WASHING YOUR HANDS WILL STOP IT.

oops. This new Federal Order does not override or supersede USDA's April 24 Federal Order, which still requires the mandatory testing of lactating dairy cows prior to interstate shipment and requires that all privately owned laboratories and state veterinarians report positive test results connected with those tests. The new Federal Order announced today is intended to complement and enhance this existing order.
Question [00:51:52] Given the CDC's vaccination program, I'm wondering if this means you think it's no longer realistic to expect that the outbreak will be contained this year? Eric Deeble, USDA [00:52:12] Just on the animal side and all that Dr. Nirav speak to the human side, there's a lot about this disease that makes us feel as if we can arrest its progress. And we've actually seen some success demonstrated to date. With this disease, it does not appear to move by respiratory transmission. We know that there are high viral loads in milk, and we've identified through close, collabora...
In addition to testing, biosecurity is the key to containing this virus, and ultimately ensuring that it is eradicated so that producers do not have to deal with this virus in dairy cattle permanently. Good biosecurity including cleaning and disinfection of vehicle and equipment - is critical to minimizing the risk of disease spread. USDA works closely with state animal health official, producers, and industry organizations to provide guidance and resources for cleaning and disinfection not only on affected farms but for all livestock producers as a part of practicing good biosecurity. APHI...
The study.

✅ 20% of the cows showed up as sick. Had symptoms. But....

✅ It turns out that 89.4% were actually infected.

✅ 83.7% of those had no symptoms. Remind you of any other airborne diseases?

✅ 40.5% of the dry cows not being milked? Infected. So, no Image
Image
Image
fomites or milk aerosols involved, most likely.
Read 6 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Mar 13
There is not much that scares me. Freaks me out.

I am freaking out.

You should be, too.

Do you know what this shows?

Do you know how to avoid this? Holy cow.
This is the continued accumulation of dementia-causing microplastics in your brain. Simple linear regression (shown with 95% CI represented by dashed lines) was performed for total plastics, polyethylene, polypropylene, polyvinyl chloride and styrene-butadiene rubber measured in normal decedent brains from 2004 (average of east coast samples), 2016 and 2024 (NM OMI samples).
See how it increased from 2016 to 2024?

And it actually is worse - they found less plastics in brains from a decade earlier.

ACCUMULATION. Simple linear regression (shown with 95% CI represented by dashed lines) was performed for total plastics, polyethylene, polypropylene, polyvinyl chloride and styrene-butadiene rubber measured in normal decedent brains from 2004 (average of east coast samples), 2016 and 2024 (NM OMI samples).
Read 28 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Feb 23
Great interview of Ed Yong - I am just covering the C0V1D part.

/1 The Interview Ed Yong Wants to Show You the Hidden Reality of the World Ed standing with his arms folded. His eyes tell you COVID is not over.
You've been clear in saying that C0V1D has not gone away. You ask people to wear masks at your events..... You’ve been clear in saying that Covid has not gone away. You ask people to wear masks at your events. But that attitude is not necessarily where the rest of the world is. How do you think about continuing to take precautions and advising others to do so when it feels as if society has moved on? I do it for a bunch of reasons. Firstly, I have learned that I enjoy not being sick. I know that the cost of long Covid is real and substantial, and I don’t want to run that risk lightly.
"I think it makes a huge difference to them to have the person at the front of the stage wear a mask. It tells them, It’s not weird." . I also know that I have many friends and people I’m close to who are immunocompromised. So for the sake of the people around me, I also don’t want to get sick. When I do events, I wear a mask for those reasons, and because I know that every time I do a talk, while the vast majority of people in the audience have probably moved on, there are going to be other people who haven’t. I think it makes a huge difference to them to have the person at the front of the stage wear a mask. It tells them, It’s not weird. So I do it for that reason, too. In terms of holding this line at a point when a l...
Read 5 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Feb 22
I am sorry if this will upset you. A lot of people depend on NASAL SPRAYS for C0V1D.

I have been iffy on them, but viewed them as "if they don't hurt, why not" but not for me.

There's an analysis
on Reddit that you should read in detail, and make up your own mind.
/1
Here is the link:


Here is a 4 tweet TLDR version.

Here is how it starts - the author goes HARD at the underlying studies. reddit.com/r/ZeroCovidCom…There is no convincing evidence that nasal sprays prevent COVID-19 There is a lot of misinformation out there about nasal sprays preventing COVID-19. Unfortunately, there are no convincing studies showing that nasal sprays prevent COVID-19. The published studies investigating whether or not nasal sprays prevent COVID-19 each have major issues, which I will detail here. I have a PhD in biochemistry and one of my PhD projects was on COVID-19. The main takeaway of this post is that there is no sound evidence that nasal sprays prevent COVID-19. Thus, nasal sprays should not be used for COVID-...
Some pretty harsh language, but to me the important thing is we still have clean air.

Which is good, because it boils down to only 2 studies saying that nasal sprays work, per them. 5. Summary/TLDR and final thoughts Unfortunately, many people including covid influencers have fallen for the grift of nasal sprays preventing COVID-19. Some such influencers have promoted these nasal sprays for free and helped spread the misinformation that they prevent COVID-19. Unlike with nasal sprays, there is ample, sound evidence that high-quality well-fitting respirators, ventilation and air purification prevent COVID-19. The human clinical trials testing whether or not nasal sprays prevent COVID-19 are garbage, and to my knowledge there are only two! Please don't lower your covid...
Read 7 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Feb 17
Guillain-Barre Syndrome linked to poultry eggs? H5N1?!

The BBC had a good article from February 3 that talks about how these Indian states' cases are linked to campylobacter jejuni, a bacteria. It IS the most common root-cause, globally.

And IT is commonly found in poultry. AVOID CHICKEN AND EGGS RIGHT NOW SIGN showing for the country of India in a tweet from @alwaysmadesh. Due to Guillain-Barre Syndrome.
"Campylobacter jejuni infection is the common associated microorganism (25–40%), followed by cytomegalovirus (6–15%), Mycoplasma pneumoniae (3–21%), and Haemophilus influenzae (1–9%)"

BTW - Cytomegalovirus is also an airborne virus - that just happens to cause brain cancer.
Mycoplasma pneumoniae - also airborne.

And...drum roll please...Campylobacter jejuni also airborne.

Don't get me wrong - jejuni most definitely is also fecal-oral, no question.

But it's also airborne.

Sampled from the air below. Figure 7. GCN/m3 results using microorganism-specific primers. These microorganisms were chosen for their pathogenic and opportunistic nature. Samples 1–12 indicate the WWC collections in House A, 1R–12R the WWC collections in House B and 1F–12F the filter collections in House A.
Read 11 tweets

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