Balaji Profile picture
Jun 15, 2024 1 tweets 1 min read Read on X
MONEY AFTER AI IS CRYPTO

What is money after generative AI and robotics? This is essentially crypto. Money itself becomes cryptocurrency, just as much intelligence becomes electricity.

Here’s why:

1) First, cryptocurrency is what’s provably scarce in the age of AI abundance. That isn’t a bad thing. For example, you need scarce crypto assets to prove you’re a human when AI tools for faking humanity are abundant.

2) Second, money is a bridge across economically distinct actors. You don’t need to pay your hand to move, nor do you need to pay a robot you own to move. But a robot owned by another economic actor will still need money to rent. So, send the coin to unlock that drone.

3) Basically, scarcity at a high level doesn’t go away, so money doesn’t go away. But many forms of scarcity may go away. Washing machines are stationary household robots and may be replaced by walking machines that are mobile household robots.

4) The supply chains to build the robots and the nuclear power plants to run the AI datacenters will remain scarce. And those are largely in China, and more generally in Asia. So money is valuable there.

5) The most important form of scarcity in the AI age are the private keys to control the robots. Those too will be crypto, because web3 backends like Bitcoin and Ethereum have far higher levels of security than any web2 system.

In short: AI is digital abundance but it doesn’t make everything abundant. Crypto is digital scarcity and complements AI’s abundance. So money after AI is crypto.

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More from @balajis

Dec 3
If a country stay smalls to remain true to its roots, it eventually gets absorbed by an empire.

Conversely, if a country plays for empire, and truly achieves world domination, it absorbs so many that its subjects eventually outnumber the imperial core. And thus the empire, too, loses touch with its roots.

Stay small and get conquered.
Get big and get diluted.
I like Switzerland and agree that it was arguably an exception to the rule. But it isn’t anymore and hasn’t been for some time.

It capitulated to Obama in 2009 on financial privacy, and so Swiss bank accounts don’t really exist. The Swiss (perhaps understandably) sanctioned Russia after 2022 and nuked the Credit Suisse bondholders, in violation of financial neutrality. That neutrality is now found only onchain.

The country is also de facto a member of NATO and the EU, even if not de jure. And is moving towards de jure. It’s a member of the Schengen zone and signatory to 100+ bilateral treaties, which means much of its law is already written in Brussels.

Basically, like all Western European countries, it’s already just a protectorate of the American Empire and no longer has real foreign or domestic policy independence.

And Switzerland now feels it needs to *formally* join the US/EU empire or get beaten by Russia, which is the dynamic I mentioned above: small countries get absorbed voluntarily into one empire, or involuntarily into another.Image
It’s still formally neutral, but it’s neutral in name only. The economic and military benefits of being part of a scaled empire were too great. See post above.

Unfortunately for Switzerland, it’s losing its neutrality at a bad moment in history, by being sucked into the gravitational black hole of the Western sovereign debt crisis. It’s getting pulled into a declining empire, instead of benefiting from a rising one. Maybe it suffers less damage than its neighbors due to legacy neutrality, but it won’t be unscathed.

That said, if you had to live in Western Europe, you’d likely live in Switzerland, as it may have the best financial position among its neighbors. Yields have actually gone negative there. It might be the cleanest dirty shirt in the region.Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 7
Communism shatters economic relations, but ultranationalism breaks diplomatic relations.
If the far left’s failure mode is not understanding self-interest, the far right’s failure mode is not understanding other-interest.

That is to say: we know the far left doesn’t viscerally get the idea of capitalism, of building products, of sometimes just not having the money to do something. The far left fantasy is of total independence from needing to work at all. They don’t understand economic scarcity.

But the far right similarly doesn’t get the idea of diplomacy, of building coalitions, of sometimes just not having the votes to do something. The far right fantasy is of total independence from needing to work with others. They don’t understand political capital.

And that is also a failure mode. If you can only cooperate within your small tribe, you can’t even scale up. And then your tribe loses.

(The alternative is international capitalism, which is more practical than the socialist left and more scalable than the nationalist right.)Image
When you go *too* far to the nationalist right, you limit your coalition to only those who are both right-of-center and citizens of your country.

But only China has the scale to really do everything in one country. Everyone else needs allies.
Read 6 tweets
Oct 14
The AI flippening. Image
Crypto has also decentralized to Asia. Image
About 55% of unicorns are still in the US, but the trendline there is also towards decentralization. Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 8
There's dark talent around the world, from the Midwest to the Middle East. Backing this talent is the right thing to do morally and the smart thing to do economically.
To be clear: I'm not talking about sending more tech talent to the US. Instead, I'm talking about backing dark talent around the world.

That includes the many white kids from places like the Midwest who've been unfairly quota'd out of Harvard. But it also includes those outside America whose societies were ravaged by war, socialism, or communism...and who are just now starting to become productive again.

The goal is global equality of opportunity. The Internet actually now provides the basis for uniform rule-of-law via rule-of-code, starting with Bitcoin and smart contracts. We just need to execute from here.
Yes. That's what the blockchain is: everyone worldwide gets access to their ideal monetary policy, payments, smart contracts, and entity formation. Enforced by incorruptible & transparent computer-based judges. And opted into on a purely voluntary basis.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 17
Prime Minister Modi comprehensively defeated the far left in India.

It can be done.
Naxalites drew their inspiration from Maoism and terrorized India for decades. Now these communists have formally surrendered.

britannica.com/topic/Naxalite x.com/thelegatein/st…Image
Fifteen years ago the far left still controlled almost one third of India.

The Modi government fixed the issue by using force against actual terrorists while addressing the underlying discontent with economic development. It worked.
indiatoday.in/amp/india-toda… x.com/iyervval/statu…Image
Read 8 tweets
Sep 8
Both America and China were invested in the illusion that China wasn't already the world's strongest economy.

Psychologically, it suited the incumbent to appear strong. So America downplayed China's numbers.

Strategically, it suited the disruptor to appear weak. So China also sandbagged its own numbers.

But the illusion is becoming harder to maintain.Image
In retrospect, all the China cope over the last decade or so was really just the stealth on the Chinese stealth bomber.

Hide your strength and bide your time was Deng's strategy. Amazingly, denying China's strength somehow also became America's strategy.

For example, all the cope on China's demographics somehow being uniquely bad...when they have 1.4B+ people that crush every international science competition with minimal drug addiction, crime, or fatherlessness...and when their demographic problems have obvious robotic solutions.

Or, for another example, how MAGA sought to mimic China's manufacturing buildout and industrial policy without deeply understanding China's strengths in this area, which is like competing with Google by setting up a website. Vague references to 1945 substituted for understanding the year 2025.

One consequence of the cope is that China knows far more about America's strengths than vice versa. Surprisingly few Americans interested in re-industrialization have ever set foot in Shenzhen. Those who have, like @Molson_Hart, understand what modern China actually is.

Anyway, what @DoggyDog1208 calls the "skull chart" is the same phenomenon @yishan and I commented on months ago. Once China truly enters a vertical, like electric cars or solar, their pace of ascent[1] is so rapid that incumbents often don't even have time to react.

Now apply this at country level. China has flipped America so quickly on so many axes[2], particularly military ones like hypersonics or military-adjacent ones like power, that it can no longer be contained.

A major contributing factor was the dollar illusion. All that money printing made America think it was richer than China. And China was happy to let America persist in the illusion. But an illusion it was. Yet another way in which Keynesianism becomes the epitaph of empire.

[1]: asiatimes.com/2025/07/thucyd…
[2]: x.com/balajis/status…Image
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Well, it's not the idea, it's the execution.

China can just sit back and let the world be its Xerox PARC. And then become a speedy second mover on anything that's working.

So you need innovations China genuinely can't copy.
One of them is Bitcoin.
Read 7 tweets

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