Joni Askola Profile picture
Jun 15 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/8 Ukraine's current strategy aims to coerce russia into either relocating its bombers to airfields at a greater distance or forcing russia to deploy unsustainable quantities of air defense systems to protect its current airfields. Image
2/8 Ukraine seems to be pursuing a distinct strategy to compel the VKS to either evacuate its bases within several hundred miles of Ukraine’s borders or allocate an excessive amount of air defense systems to defend them. Image
3/8 Ukraine’s recent success in damaging a Su-57 represents a major symbolic blow to russia and further illustrates Ukraine's most effective method for countering russia's escalating use of air-to-ground weapons. Image
4/8 This strategy necessitates numerous successful strikes on russian airfields. While Ukraine has achieved several successful strikes, it requires many more to reach its objective. Image
5/8 If successful, this strategy could potentially save numerous civilian lives, as russian su-34 bombers, which deploy glide bombs, operate from bases that are in relatively close proximity to Ukraine. Image
6/8 Glide bombs have represented one of the rare real successes of russia's defense industry in this war, and Ukraine lacks a sufficient number of Patriot batteries to risk deploying them in close proximity to the front lines. Image
7/8 The arrival of F16 jets will offer some support, but Ukraine will need time to acquire a sufficient quantity of them. During this waiting period, targeting airfields remains Ukraine's best course of action. Image

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More from @joni_askola

Jun 16
1/6 The CSTO, not NATO, is the one that is "brain dead." Image
2/6 Following Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO and Armenia's departure from the CSTO, it is the CSTO, not NATO, that should be labeled as "brain dead." This contrasts with Macron's 2019 statement that NATO is "brain dead." Image
3/6 russia's unsuccessful invasion of Ukraine has succeeded in revitalizing NATO, unifying the West, prompting Finland and Sweden to transition from neutrality to NATO membership, and leading to Armenia's announcement of its departure from the CSTO. Image
Read 6 tweets
Jun 11
1/5 Better late than never! The US has finally removed the unfair restriction on transferring Western weapons to the 12th Azov Special Forces Brigade of the National Guard @azov_media Image
2/5 The decision was made after the State Department reviewed the 12th Azov Special Forces Brigade of the National Guard. Image
3/5 The 12th Azov Special Forces Brigade of the National Guard is among the most professional units in Ukraine, and the ban was solely influenced by russian disinformation. This unit saved Ukraine by keeping russian troops occupied in Mariupol for nearly 3 months. Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 10
1/16 Putin's theory of victory, as assessed by the @TheStudyofWar, and why it represents yet another miscalculation on his part. Image
2/16 Based on @TheStudyofWar's analysis, Putin's strategy for victory essentially involves winning by outlasting Ukraine and the West through gradual advancement, preventing Ukraine from mounting effective counters, and ultimately prevailing in the war of attrition. Image
3/16 Belousov's appointment as Minister of Defence was precisely due to this reason. Putin is aware that the war will be prolonged, and russia must strive for maximum economic efficiency to endure until the West relents. Image
Read 16 tweets
Jun 9
1/10 Macron's decision to dissolve the Assemblée Nationale is a strategic move aimed at challenging the far right. Despite widespread concerns, the situation may not be as alarming as many believe. Image
2/10 The Rassemblement National emerged victorious in the European elections in France and demanded the dissolution of the Assemblée nationale. Macron surprised everyone by actually carrying it out. Image
3/10 Macron's decision to dissolve the Assemblée nationale is a bold and daring move. Essentially, he is challenging Bardella and Le Pen and calling their bluff. Image
Read 10 tweets
Jun 9
1/12 Through its actions, Europe can determine whether we are currently in 1938 or in 1943. Image
2/12 While NATO and the west as a whole are stronger and larger than ever, there is a tendency to overlook the fact that we don't owe russia anything, as it has failed to fulfill its commitments. In reality, russia is much weaker than our actions may suggest. Image
3/12 In The Guardian, it was suggested that we are in a situation resembling 1938. However, I believe we have the power to determine whether we are in 1938 or 1943. We face the choice of either entering a prolonged and escalating conflict or prevailing over russia in Ukraine now Image
Read 12 tweets
Jun 9
1/9 It's time to teach china what reciprocity means: the EU is set to announce new tariffs on chinese EVs, let's hope that they are high. Image
2/9 Next week, the European Commission is expected to reveal its decision on tariffs on imports of electric vehicles from china. The significance of this announcement cannot be overstated, and there is potential for unintended consequences to arise. Image
3/9 In May, the US declared a 100% tariff on them, and Europe also needs to impose a high tariff. Image
Read 9 tweets

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