Thread by @David_Charts

🧵Monthly economic briefing, through May data. First, we're up 6.2 million jobs vs. pre-pandemic peak, which was regained June 2022. A record 158.5 million jobs were reported in May. A robust 272,000 net new jobs were added as the labor market boom continued. 1/

Job creation is much faster under Biden than Trump, no matter how you slice it. Job creation has averaged 390,000/month since Biden inauguration, and 269,000/month since the pre-pandemic peak jobs level was regained in June 2022. 2/

Biden has the lowest unemployment rate on average of any president, at 4.16%. The rate for May was 4.0%, the 28th consecutive month at or below 4.0%. The 3.6% average rates for 2022 & 2023 were the lowest since 1969. 3/

The unemployment rate was 6.4% when Biden started, so it has fallen 2.4% to the May reading of 4.0%. Since WW2, the unemployment rate has increased under every Republican president except Reagan, and fallen under every Democrat but Carter (who had no net change). 4/

A key measure of participation, the ratio of employed to population for age 25-54, was unchanged in May at 80.8%. This was above the 2019 average of 80.0%. 5/

The ratio of open jobs to unemployed was 1.24 in April (this data lags 1 month). The Fed is thrilled this ratio has come down from 2.0, which was perceived as an overheated labor market. The # of job openings has steadily fallen, while the # unemployed has been flat. 6/

Hourly wages for production & non-supervisory workers have outgrown inflation since pre-pandemic.
+25% Wages
+21% Inflation (CPI All)
+19% Inflation (CPI Core, ex- food & energy)

In other words, real wages (purchasing power) is better than 2019. 7/

CBO amplified the above point, reporting incomes have outgrown inflation across the income spectrum, comparing 2023 to 2019. Yes, both rich and poor have more purchasing power than in the vaunted 2019 economy. 8/
cbo.gov/publication/60…

In fact, guess which president has the highest real wages (purchasing power) of any president? If you guessed Biden, you would be right! 9/

And it's not just wages. Net worth has also grown much faster than inflation, particularly for the bottom 50% wealth group, comparing 2024 Q1 vs. 2019 Q4 pre-pandemic:

+94% Bottom 50% group
+48% 50th-90th percentile group
+25% Hourly wages
+21% Inflation 10/

Here are the real (inflation-adjusted) net worth details by group comparing Q1 2024 to Q4 2019 pre-pandemic. All groups were up, and the bottom 90% saw their share of wealth grow (i.e., wealth inequality improved). 11/

The Fed's forecast also shows a robust economy, with low unemployment, moderating inflation, and steady growth 2024-2026. Fed Chair Powell's June 12 comments were very positive. 12/

The positivity is well-earned. Biden has the combination of lowest unemployment rate and highest real wages (purchasing power) of any president back to 1964, breaking a tie with LBJ this month on the former. 13/

While media, Wall St. shorts, and Republicans often talk about recession risks, 5 of the 6 key measures used by NBER to call an economic peak/recession start are showing growth vs. January 2023. 14/

So continue enjoying perhaps the best economy since 1960's, with record stock markets, your presidential record purchasing power, the presidential average low unemployment rate, and robust job opportunities! Let everyone know the great news! 15/END