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Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
@Mylovanov
Jun 17 • 10 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
For the first time, we have documents detailing the 2022 Ukrainian-Russian peace negotiations. What's new, and what did we get wrong? Contrary to Biden's opponents in the U.S., it wasn't Boris Johnson who derailed the deal, but Russia's last-minute conditions 1/ Image
The NYTimes published the documents and their analysis from interviews with those involved in the negotiations. The timing appears strategic just before the peace summit in Switzerland and right after Putin issued another 'peace deal' ultimatum 2/ nytimes.com/interactive/20…
The 2022 negotiations timeline makes it evident that Boris Johnson had no involvement and was never a relevant factor

However, the analysis notes that U.S. officials had serious concerns, saying, 'We quietly said, ‘You understand this is unilateral disarmament, right?’'

3/
The NYTimes analysis reveals that Putin micromanaged the talks and that the Russian delegation was delusional about the situation. When Ukrainian Reznikov cited 3,000 Russian deaths, negotiator Medinsky was shocked insisting there were only 80 4/
Putin’s negotiations were about asserting control and power, not a sustainable peace with an independent Ukraine. His demands aimed to weaken Ukraine, ensuring it remained vulnerable and allowing Putin to dictate its policies in the future without further invasions 5/
He demanded Ukraine recognize Crimea and other occupied regions as Russian, declare neutrality, limit its military capabilities, restrict missile ranges to 27 km, and let Russia influence the positioning of Ukrainian troops 6/
Compare these conditions against the 10 point Zelensky peace formula: nuclear, food, and energy security, prisoner exchange and return of abducted children, the UN charter about territorial integrity and peaceful conflict resolution, justice for war crime victims etc 7/
Zelensky plan addresses conditions that ensure stability and prevent future wars and conflicts. Putin plan guarantees a new war when one of the parties comes to believe it is stronger, even if temporarily. 8/
But the end of the negotiations in 2022 was Putin’s demand to grant him a veto power over support to Ukraine if he invades again. A sort of the UN Security Council setup, where Russia can get away with anything. 9X
This is a case in point. People believe that it is Ukraine who refused neutrality, while the opposite is true. Ukraine was ready to be neutral but Russia wanted more - to veto any support to Ukraine if it invades it again.

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jun 18
Ukrainians consider Zelensky legitimate even though elections are cancelled during martial law

70% of Ukrainians across all regions agree that Zelensky should serve as president until the end of the war, a recent reputable poll by KIIS 1/

mobiliseproject.com/wp-content/upl…
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Putin recently challenged Zelensky's legitimacy, claiming it is unclear who to speak with in Ukraine. Zelensky countered, stating that unlike in Russia, where Putin's legitimacy is self-determined, his legitimacy is decided by Ukrainians 2/
These new data now supports Zelensky's claim.

Btw, Zelensky also argued that it is absurd to receive Putin in the West as a legitimate head of state. Hopefully, one day it will be so. 3/

Read 9 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jun 18
It might seem bizarre to foreigners, but Russia believes it has jurisdiction over Ukraine. To Russia, the Ukrainian government and armed forces are merely domestic terrorists. Once you accept this perspective, Russian actions begin to make sense 1/


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For Russia, this isn't a war with Ukraine, but a special military operation to eradicate terrorists. From this perspective, it's very similar to what happened in Chechnya in the 1990s. That wasn't seen as a war to suppress independence, but a campaign against terrorism 2/
No one negotiates with terrorists in good faith. The goal is to trick them into surrendering their weapons, hostages, and territory, ultimately to weaken and eliminate them. This is why Putin's peace proposals are not about sustainable peace 3/

Read 8 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jun 16
The peace summit in Switzerland is a major diplomatic success despite some setbacks.

For the first time, Ukraine has been able to lead a meeting of over 90 countries with 57 heads of state present

80 countries signed the communique with key points Ukraine wanted 1/ Image
These key points are

The Russia wages a war against Ukraine

Reference to the UN resolution that declared Russia the aggressor and Ukraine the victim

The conclusion that the UN charter that respects the principle
Of territorial integrity will serve as a basis for peace 2/
At the summit, Ukraine raised 3 out of 10 points in Zelensky peace formula. All 3 were included in the communique:

Nuclear security

Food security

Prisoners exchange and return of deported Ukrainian children 3/
Read 9 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jun 16
Putin’s surrender ultimatum to Ukraine, disguised as a peace proposal, backfired

- it underscored the diminishing impact of Putin's rhetoric

- it weakened the perception that Russia is genuinely committed to peace talks

- it reminded everyone why negotiations failed in 2022 1/ Image
Putin asked Ukraine to surrender four regions or else he will continue fighting. He promised nothing in exchange, only a possibility of ceasefire and talks 2/
Some Western media mistakenly framed the proposal as a truce for Ukraine’s withdrawal from occupied territories (???), but it barely trended on social media for 12 hours and faced harsh backlash from Western leaders. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jun 15
The G7 pledges to combat Russian shadow fleet used to evade oil export sanctions.

Research @KSE_Institute shows Russia tripled this fleet to 435 vessels in 2024 from 143 in 2023, heightening concerns about oil spills along EU shipping routes. 1/ Image
@KSE_Institute Russia is boosting its shadow fleet with old ships destined for scrap. An oil spill is not a question of if but when, which would trigger severe sanctions on fleet facilitators. Yet, EU elections and local politics are diverting G7's focus 2/

buff.ly/45nBKhJ

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@KSE_Institute Research by the Kyiv School of Economics shows that the shadow fleet now handles about 60% of Russia's crude exports and 45% of oil product exports independently of restricted maritime services. In 2023, Russia still relied heavily on Western services 3/

buff.ly/4eqgE6a
Image
Read 8 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jun 14
Ukrainian woman escapes Russian occupation by walking through the front line over a bridge in Kherson

On June 11, the Ukrainian military spotted a woman on the surviving part of the Antonivskyi Bridge, standing in the side of the occupied Oleshky 1/

After the woman saw the drone, she showed it her Ukrainian passport.

The drone escorted the Ukrainian woman to the positions of Ukrainian forces. She was then transported by boat to the territory controlled by Ukraine 2/
The soldiers who rescued her said the woman did not know that Antonivskyi Bridge was destroyed, so she was walking towards it hoping to cross it.

The operation to evacuate her lasted about six hours 3/
Read 7 tweets

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