Thread by @WarintheFuture

For a little while now I have wanted to write about the Russian turtle tanks. These weird and unwieldy beasts provide a discrete solution to a contemporary battlefield problem - generating successful offensive operations. 1/10 🧵🇺🇦🇺🇦

2/ On the weekend, the Ukrainian ground forces were able to capture one of these Russian turtle tanks. It will be a useful source of intelligence, particularly the EW suite that it is equipped with. But it will also provide insights into weaknesses that can be attacked with FPV.

3/ These turtle tanks have already appeared in several 'generations': Gen 1: tank with metal tortise shell; Gen 2: tank with metal tortise shell and EW suite; and, Gen 3: tank with metal tortise shell, EW suite, additional cages and mine roller.

4/ They are a particular solution to a particular problem. After 26 months of war, adaptations on both sides have led to an increasingly difficult environment for the conduct of offensive operations. In particular, closing with the enemy and breaking into their defences is difficult.

5/ The turtle tanks are therefore testbeds for new tactics and tech. They provide the following: 1. Survivability against drones, loitering munitions & FPV; 2. electronic breaching operations as part of ground assault; 3. integration of drone & EW defences into combined arms operations; 4. integration of physical and electronic breaching in a single platform.

6/ While a useful demonstration of different capabilities to support offensive operations, the turtle tank itself is probably an evolutionary dead end. The vehicles are large, slow-moving and unwieldy, with limited crew visibility.

7/ The array of tasks currently undertaken by turtle tanks are likely to be distributed to many smaller, lower signature uncrewed vehicles as both sides experiment with new tactics and technologies for offensive operations. Both Russia & Ukraine appreciate that successfully returning to offensive operations is key to their respective theories of victory.

8/ The turtle tank is a weird-looking beast. But it is an adaptation for a particular battlefield problem for a particular environment in one theatre of war. It will probably be neutralised by Ukrainian adaptation in the near term, and is unlikely to be suitable for other operational theatres.

9/ The turtle tank is also a demonstration of the adaptive capacity of the Russian Army. While they have been generally slower at learning than the Ukrainian military, they have managed to learn and adapt throughout the war. Read my full assessment here:
mickryan.substack.com/p/ode-to-the-t…

10/ Thanks to the following for images used in the thread and article: @JayinKyiv @thewarzonewire @666_mancer @RALee85 @ukraine_map @bayraktar_1love @DefenceU