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Jun 19 14 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Sanctions enforcement against Russia remains weak, as companies, including those from the West, continue to supply critical manufacturing equipment to sanctioned Russian firms. Frontelligence Insight reveals details of its investigation and provides evidence.

🧵Thread: Image
2/ The Russian UAV manufacturer "Albatros," based in Alabuga, is led by Aleksei Florov, also a chief designer involved in the localization of Iranian Shahed drones in Alabuga. Both "Albatros" and Aleksei Florov are sanctioned by several countries, including the US.Image
3/ The documents obtained by @CyberResUa and analyzed by Frontelligence Insight reveal that Aleksei Florov and his "Albatros" not only maintain trade relations with foreign companies through intermediaries but often engage directly with them.
4/ While Chinese companies play a key role, other companies, including French and Korean, have also been spotted. For instance, the Russian branch of the South Korean software company Midas Engineering Software directly offered to provide manufacturing software to AlbatrosImage
5/ Thanks to an email conversation between Florov and Dmitry Vorontsov, the regional manager of "UNIT MARK PRO," we know that Unit Mark Pro supplies the Russian military industry, including Zala Aero (Lancet manufacturer), with industrial equipment from SIC Marking, France Image
6/ Chinese companies often work directly with Albatros to supply crucial components like semiconductors. Leaked emails reveal that Asia Semiconductor openly offer to bypass sanctions and supply with Mean Well, Aimtec, Siemens, Chinfa, Maxim, XILINX, Atmel, Wago, Vicor, and ST/TIImage
7/ Another example is Ericco Inertial System, based in Xi’an, China, which reached out directly to the CEO of Albatros, offering to sell MEMS MIUs (navigational devices for measuring navigational data) for their UAVs. Image
8/ Unfortunately, it doesn't stop at relatively small items. The Russian company AREAL was in contact with Albatros, offering to deliver industrial manufacturing equipment such as milling machines, lathes, CNC machines, metal laser, and plasma cutting machines from China and ROC Image
9/ Based on billing and invoice documents, we know that some transactions were successful. For instance, in October 2023, at least five Japanese Saito engines were purchased for over 1.13 million rubles. The invoice lists Florov as the Chief Designer of "Alabuga". Image
10/ It was also disappointing to see NVIDIA representatives reaching out directly to sanctioned Florov to participate in an AI conference. While this may not constitute a violation of sanctions, the careless attitude of corporations shows that sanctions lack seriousness Image
11/ At the same time, it might not be surprising - after all, Agroassist, another company affiliated with Florov specializing in software for his drones, as covered in our previous investigation, is a member of the Nvidia Inception Program. Image
12/ The list of companies and products provided here is not exhaustive - the actual number of sanctions violators is much larger, spanning a wider geographic area. However, none of them appear concerned with sanctions or their consequences, due to the lack of enforcement
13/ Our team will continue to investigate and compile a list of violators. The full article, including all names, will be published this week, further detailing how lax sanction enforcement leads to the expansion of Russian military production, particularly in the UAV sector
14/ We appreciate your support. Please consider retweeting and liking this thread to aid with visibility, as raising public awareness is the key.

You can also contribute to our efforts by donating to help fund further investigations like this one:
buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence

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More from @Tatarigami_UA

Jun 9
Summarized update from Frontelligence Insight on frontlines:

1/ The main Russian efforts remain in Donbas, particularly along the Pokrovsk-Chasiv Yar axis, which is currently the most difficult area. Vuhledar and Kupyansk areas are also key areas of focus. 🧵Thread:
2/ So far, Russian forces have failed to capitalize on the Kharkiv oblast incursion and did not achieve any operational successes in Donbas. They made tactical advances in Chasiv Yar, but given the number and higher-than-average quality of units there, progress is slow and costly
3/ As our team indicated months ago, the goal in Chasiv Yar isn't to hold the town at any cost but to ensure the enemy expends far more resources than planned, thereby crippling their ability to capitalize on its capture and develop an offensive towards Kostyantynivka
Read 9 tweets
Jun 6
Within a decade, hybrid warfare against the West and Ukraine escalated into the largest war in Europe since WWII. To grasp how a demographically and economically smaller Russia achieved this, we need to look at the underlying processes, including escalation management. 🧵Thread Image
2/ We need to start with the concept known as "reflexive control" - a method to shape an opponent's mindset, steering their behavior towards the initiator's desired outcome. Russia used it to influence the West's mindset, suggesting that any aid could lead to nuclear escalation Screenshot from the New York Times news article
3/ These tactics were also influential in 2014-2015, leading European leaders like Angela Merkel to pursue peace resolutions in Ukraine on Russia’s terms. Fearing conventional or nuclear escalation, many leaders embraced what they deemed "responsible" politics. Screenshot from the Atlantic Council analysis
Read 15 tweets
May 31
In this war, timely aid and permission to strike are playing a key role. Ukraine must not be limited by weapon types or target locations. Delays or restrictions risk missing a critical window of opportunity, prolonging the war.🧵Thread about consequences and missed opportunities: Image
2/ These images show Russian concentrations of forces, camps, and field repair bases on the border with Ukraine. All these images have two things in common: by 2024, these sites have moved and dispersed, and none were targeted before their deployment to the frontlines Image
3/ It's fair to assume that many of these forces have been destroyed or damaged by now. However, the extent of casualties and damage they caused beforehand is unknown. This could have been avoided in 2022 and 2023 if Ukraine had permission and weaponry for strikes. Image
Read 7 tweets
May 29
The Frontelligence Insight assesses that Russia is very close to launching the new railroad line between Burne and Malovodne (Donetsk Oblast), likely within weeks or days. The satellite imagery confirms limited train movement

Before proceeding, please like and share

Thread🧵: Image
2/ The construction of an 80km railroad in Donetsk Oblast, approximately initiated around June 2023, aimed to establish a direct link between occupied southern Ukraine and the rest of Russia as a partial alternative to the Crimean Bridge. Image
3/ According to Mariupol mayoral advisor Petro Andriushchenko's statement on May 8th, operations are expected to commence by late May or early June. Additionally, in April and early May, three test trains traveled from Volnovakha in Donetsk Oblast to Mariupol's port and back. Image
Read 7 tweets
May 26
Investigation by Frontelligence Insight reveals that since 2022, despite sanctions, Russian cruise missile manufacturer Raduga has not only continued to operate but also expanded production, thanks to imported Western and Chinese machinery

🧵Thread (Please Like and Share first):Image
2/ "Raduga" is a design bureau located in Dubna, Moscow Oblast, specializing in the production of missile systems, which are now used against Ukraine. This includes various modifications of the Kh-55, Kh-59, and Kh-101 missiles, as well as other missile types and models. Image
3/ The Raduga State Machine Building Design Bureau was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury on March 24, 2022. Despite these sanctions, the enterprise has continued its operations. However, the production of high-precision missiles isn't entirely reliant on domestic resources alone. Image
Read 12 tweets
May 23
Donbas Area Situation Report: May 21-22

The frontline remains dynamic despite appearing static. Ukrainian forces reinforced Kharkiv to halt the Russian advance. The situation is still risky considering the thinned defenses. 🧵Thread

Before proceeding, please like and share Image
2/ Chasiv Yar

Russia identified weak points in the Kanal quarter, deploying infantry deep but failed to establish a foothold, and assaulting forces were eliminated by Ukrainian forces. Another attempt can be more successful, as Russians have additional forces available.Image
3/ Russian troops made minor tactical gains in the northern axis towards Chasiv Yar, from the Kalynivka area. Progress on the northern flank is still slow, despite initial efforts to reach the area quickly with a land bridge over the canal.
Read 12 tweets

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