Thread by @PaulGoodmanCH

1) Conservatives in Canada after 1993. It’s well known that in that year the Progressive Conservatives won only two seats in the federal election. What’s not always so well known is what followed. A thread…

2) The PCs were a very long way down indeed - but not out. In the federal election of 1997 they crawled their way back to 20 seats…

3) …And in that of 2000, fell back again to 12. But they had a base on the eastern side of the country from which they couldn’t altogether be removed.

4) By the time of the 2004 federal election, they had merged with Canada’s Reform Party. The new force took 90 seats…

5) …And went on to form a government after the 2006 contest (though it didn't gain a majority): the first victory for the right in such an election for 13 years. So what are the lessons for the right in Britain?…

6) …If any - because Canada 1993 and the UK 2024 are very different. In 1993, PC support was eaten up in the west by the Bloc Québécois and in the east by the new Reform.

7) In 2004 in the UK, Conservative support is spread less thinly (though it’s certainly thinned) and Reform’s backing is far, far less concentrated.

8) So, first, the Canadian balance between Conservatives and Reform is unlikely to be repeated. In 1993, the PCs won two seats and Reform 52. It’s hard to see that ratio of 26 Reform seats to a single Conservative one being replicated on July 4.

9) Second, the Conservatives won’t be “destroyed” “wiped out” “eliminated” if they win under 100 seats on July 4. At least if the Canadian experience is anything to go by.

10) Third, the Canadian example post-1993 suggests a long, slow, merger - with plenty of ups and downs and thrills and spills on the way.

11) Fourth, some PC and Reform politicians made it through the 13 years of opposition. But much of the leadership of the new Conservative Party came from a new generation. (The new Prime Minister in 2006, @stephenharper, was first elected to the federal parliament in 1993.)

@stephenharper 12) Fifth, Reform’s original disrupter, Preston Manning, never became Prime Minister. Indeed, he lost out during the turmoil of the opposition years for the right. Take note, @Nigel_Farage.

@stephenharper @Nigel_Farage 13) So what did the merged PC/Reform party in Canada look like? Was the new Conservative Party more like the former or the latter?

@stephenharper @Nigel_Farage 14) Grateful to @Dannythefink for drawing his readers attention to @Plamondontweet's “Full Circle”, an account of what happened.

@stephenharper @Nigel_Farage @Dannythefink @Plamondontweet 15) As the title of his book suggests, Plamondon’s take is that the Conservatives took up, in significant respects, where the PCs left off.

@stephenharper @Nigel_Farage @Dannythefink @Plamondontweet 16) He cites as evidence the founding principles of the new party, the composition of @stephenharper's first Cabinet, engagement with Quebecers, the 2006 Conservative take on public service broadcasting.

@stephenharper @Nigel_Farage @Dannythefink @Plamondontweet 17) It’s only fair to add that @Plamondontweet's origins were in the PC side of the merger…

@stephenharper @Nigel_Farage @Dannythefink @Plamondontweet 18) …And that the Reform side disputes this analysis, citing inter alia the Conservative stance on tax, law and order and the environment.

@stephenharper @Nigel_Farage @Dannythefink @Plamondontweet 19) Whichever or whatever view you take, a couple of points stand out…

@stephenharper @Nigel_Farage @Dannythefink @Plamondontweet 20) First, 13 years in opposition is a long time (roughly that of Labour’s exile since 2010; about the same at the Conservatives post 1997).

@stephenharper @Nigel_Farage @Dannythefink @Plamondontweet 21) Next, 18 years without winning an election is even longer. That’s 1993 to 2011 for the right in Canada - the year in which the Conservatives finally gained a majority.

@stephenharper @Nigel_Farage @Dannythefink @Plamondontweet 22) And finally: though the Conservatives will win more than two seats on July 4, Labour’s majority is set, if the polls are right and replicated come the day, to be much, much bigger than the Canadian Liberals' was in 1993. Draw your own conclusions.