Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 19 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
This is Ukrainian FPV drone air superiority...arriving.

It is also represents the complete technological obsolescence of the USMC/US Army C-UAS, M-LIDS & M-SHORAD programs.

1/
Assuming an FPV interceptor is a $1000 a shot because of improved kinematic performance & specialized light weight fragmentation warhead.

Everything you see in photographs below is obsolete from a cost effectiveness perspective.

2/
FPV drones are "disintermediated" from any ground or vehicular infrastructure.

Any flat piece of ground or even a human hand to launch them will do.

3/
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At $1,000 an FPV Interceptor, you could afford to equip every infantry squad with a few the way disposable rocket launchers are.

And Ukrainian FPV interceptors may cost a great deal less.

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The American Coyote Block II C-UAS interceptors cost $126,000 each.

If you are trying to knock down a Bayraktar TB-2 MALE type drone, it's a workable solution.

As an Orlan-10 killer, you can buy 126 Ukrainian FPV interceptors for a single Coyote Block II.

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Ukrainian FPV interceptors don't need a specialized M-LIDS launch truck with a unique battlefield visual/EM signature.

Four guys in a pickup, with carry cases with FPV
& mothership drones, plus Gis Arta type tablets talking to AFU's smartphone
6/

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...acoustic sensor network generally locating the Orlan-10 by engine noise for the FPV to look can do the same job.

So what if MAYBE only 10% of the FPV interceptors hit right now hit.

7/
Ukraine is building 100,000 small drones a month.

The US military is talking 700 Coyote interceptors _A_YEAR_.

This nightmare of rapid technological change making US procurement irrelevant is what General John Murray of the U.S. Army Future Command has warned of.

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More from @TrentTelenko

Sep 7
The moral collapse of the Biden-Sullivan Administration is now complete.

They are providing Russia an "ATACMS Sanctuary" for genocidal attacks on the Ukrainian civilian populations.

It is a de facto political alliance with Evil.

1/
@jakeSullivan and Finer have one agenda - save Russia from itself.

Russia started this war as a colonial "Special Military Operation" to exterminate Ukrainian political/intellectual elites, which has now extended to a policy of Ukrainian genocide⬇️

2/
Why the Biden-Sullivan Administration is supporting this Russian colonial genocide in Ukraine I cannot fathom, beyond kompromat.

Groupthink/CYA motives makes no sense either as they are being slow roasted alive in social and mass media.

No other alternative makes sense.😱🤯
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Read 4 tweets
Sep 7
There are times in the Russo-Ukrainian War I really want to "head desk" at some of the stupid I've seen as a military historian.

One of those things is barge logistics.😖

A thing I have been hammering on for years on X...

1/
newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russian-f…
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...along with trucks and Ukraine notices just now?!?

WTF, over...🤦‍♂️

Nazi Marinefährprahm (MFP, naval ferry barge) were key logistical units of the Germans in the Baltic, Black, North and Mediterranean seas.


2/ en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marinef%C…


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Ukraine focusing on railway ferries and naval landing ships/craft to the exclusion of every other kind of towed barge or motorized barge-ferry is par for the group think that passes for "Western logistical (lack of) intelligence" we have seen over and over again in this war.

3/
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Read 11 tweets
Sep 3
This X post From @Prune602 I've pasted below is from a long & crunchy data filled thread looking at the crashing Russian railway system capacity.

The thread is screaming several things at me about AFU strategic bombing strategy and its objective for the Russian economy.

1/
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The biggest "Ah-Hah!" in the thread was the observation that the Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries and depots were less an oil campaign than a transportation campaign aimed at sucking up Russian rail capacity.

>>"Oil & Oil (Petroleum Products),

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...they did move more in August than previously.  This may have been because they HAD to due to the oil depot problems.

Remember, any time they ADD or REMOVE an export ban on gasoline (or similar) it causes difficulties for Russian Railways."

3/
Read 15 tweets
Sep 2
At 1,300 KIA/MIA a day, the Russians lose all the ground combat elements of a Russian division a week.

The drop in Russian artillery losses from 70 to 10 a day reflects either fewer tubes being used or an unwillingness to expose tubes w/o heavy drone jamming covering them.

1/
I am struggling to think of a post WW2 campaign with loss rates of a division per week.

Maybe the 1980's Iranian marsh offensives Iran-Iraq war?

Yet this is a material truth has not put a dent into the convictions in the DC elites around the Biden-Sullivan Administration

2/

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...that Russia is surging ahead in material and manpower.

RuAF shell fire, plus their tube & tank loss rates are all declining.

Yet I see this nonsense popping up all over the place in media sources for which veracity is a meaningless concept.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Sep 2
What is the thing that stands out the most in this Moscow video of an AFU drone striking a Russian refinery _IN_DAYLIGHT_?

IT'S WHAT'S MISSING.

Consider: Where are the VKS fighter jets?

Where Russian Drone Defense vs AFU strategic drone bombing🧵
1/
Ukrainian PSU Mig-29's are downing Shaheed's in daylight.

Where are the Russian fighter jets over Moscow?

2/
Ukrainian PSU Hind helicopters are in the air shooting down Shaheed's in daylight.

Where are the Russian VKS Hind attack choppers over Moscow?

3/
Read 20 tweets
Sep 1
It appears the Ukrainian Kusk incursion has been accompanied by a new Security Service of Ukraine fixed wing FPV drone called the Gray Widow-1 that has a range of 50 km to stop Russian road & rail traffic.

AFU's Cut Rate Lancet in Kursk🧵
1/


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The twin engine Gray Widow-2 was shown in the same article.

It is unclear what the range/payload of the FPV/loitering munition will be, but something significantly over 52 km is a good guess.

2/
mil.in.ua/en/news/a-batc…
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The video of the Gray Widow-1 operations make clear it is now in service.

It's an easy to use munition that is logistically simpler to move and set up than a 60mm mortar and outranges a M109A6 155mm/L39 Cal gun firing an Excalibur GPS guided shell.

3/
Read 8 tweets

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