Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 19 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
This is Ukrainian FPV drone air superiority...arriving.

It is also represents the complete technological obsolescence of the USMC/US Army C-UAS, M-LIDS & M-SHORAD programs.

1/
Assuming an FPV interceptor is a $1000 a shot because of improved kinematic performance & specialized light weight fragmentation warhead.

Everything you see in photographs below is obsolete from a cost effectiveness perspective.

2/
FPV drones are "disintermediated" from any ground or vehicular infrastructure.

Any flat piece of ground or even a human hand to launch them will do.

3/
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At $1,000 an FPV Interceptor, you could afford to equip every infantry squad with a few the way disposable rocket launchers are.

And Ukrainian FPV interceptors may cost a great deal less.

4/ Image
The American Coyote Block II C-UAS interceptors cost $126,000 each.

If you are trying to knock down a Bayraktar TB-2 MALE type drone, it's a workable solution.

As an Orlan-10 killer, you can buy 126 Ukrainian FPV interceptors for a single Coyote Block II.

5/ Image
Ukrainian FPV interceptors don't need a specialized M-LIDS launch truck with a unique battlefield visual/EM signature.

Four guys in a pickup, with carry cases with FPV
& mothership drones, plus Gis Arta type tablets talking to AFU's smartphone
6/

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...acoustic sensor network generally locating the Orlan-10 by engine noise for the FPV to look can do the same job.

So what if MAYBE only 10% of the FPV interceptors hit right now hit.

7/
Ukraine is building 100,000 small drones a month.

The US military is talking 700 Coyote interceptors _A_YEAR_.

This nightmare of rapid technological change making US procurement irrelevant is what General John Murray of the U.S. Army Future Command has warned of.

8/8 Image
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More from @TrentTelenko

Jun 20
The problem the Russians have in the small drone category is their centralized procurement model.

That model can make a lot of any one design.

It is forever behind the observe orient decide act (OODA) loop in terms of innovation

AFU Procurement model🧵
1/
...compared to Ukraine's decentralized/competitive procurement model of drone procurement.

Ukraine is perfectly willing to ignore "Not invented here" to get something right now like this:

2/
A Lithuanian design for Ukraine right now in any numbers beats the politically perfect for the centralized procurement pubahs we see in Russia...

...or the USA or that matter. Which doesn't make much of that one perfect design.

3/

Read 5 tweets
Jun 19
I'm beginning to think a Baba Yaga or some other compound helicopter mothership drone is taking Ukrainian FPV's to altitude for the interceptor role.

FPV's have a limited battery charge.

If they go to 5K or 10K feet height, they can't have much range at intercept altitude.

1/
FPV's berthed under the wing of something like AeroVironment’s JUMP 20 that has a 14 hour endurance and an FPV repeater can "delouse" Ukrainian rear areas of Russian Orlan-10/Zala ISR drones.

2/
Starting at the same or higher altitudes as a Russian Orlan-10/Zala.

These Ukrainian compound helicopter-sailplane mothership drone launched FPV interceptors would have a lot more range than any ground launched FPV.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 17
The issue for any logistical multi-copter is water.

Water is heavy and a soldier needs a minimum of 2 liters of water a day. In heavy combat in high heat/stress environments, soldiers need several times that.

2 liters of H2O masses 4.4 Ld/2kg .

RuAF Drone H20 logistics🧵
1/
Assuming that multicopter drone was airlifting 100 kg of kitted out soldier. It could deliver 50 soldiers worth at minimal daily H2O sustainment.

For the cut off 400 RuAF mobiks at at the Vovchansk Aggregate plant, that is 8 big drone round trips.
2/
Given the nature of Ukrainian drone fighting methods, the airspace over this plant have been filled with grenade dropping and FPV drones.

Any drones the RuAF are using to resupply have to be smaller and faster.

(map H/T @f76pacificator)

3/
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Read 9 tweets
Jun 17
This is a thread of Russian motoblock "Forward Edge Conveyors" (TPC) _MEETING THE DRONE_.

The Russians have been using these TPC for most of the Russo-Ukrainian War.


1/
Read 10 tweets
Jun 16
What you are seeing in this @wartranslated video clip at ~21 sec mark is a vehicle called a "Forward Edge Conveyor."

It is a key RuAF logistical vehicle in both front line ammo distribution and in casevac throughout the war.

Critical but ignored RuAF Logistics🧵
1/
The link & picture comes from a 30 Apr 2023 Russian article that describes the role of a "Forward Edge Conveyor" [initialed TPC per Google translate] and the article advocated for a new TCP, replacing the one pictured below, ASAP.

2/
topwar.ru/215842-armii-n…
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The pictured vehicle was Wagner & Russia's chief casualty evacuation vehicle at Bakhmut.

It is used to pull forward ammo for assault groups and move back wounded because cars are not survivable near trenches.

3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
Jun 15
RuAF has a battalion in a Ukrainian Cauldron at Vovchansk.

It's destruction/surrender will be the biggest mass unit elimination since the Ukrainian garrison at Azovstal in Mariupol was eliminated in 2022.

And Ukrainian FPV's are responsible.

FPV Air Superiority🧵

1/
This "Vovchansk Cauldron" is a testament to the increasing margins of AFU battlefield small drone air superiority.

Something which @sambendett goes into some detail translating the Russian fears of Ukrainian FPV superiority here:

2/
Read 5 tweets

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