Thread by @terjehelland

🇬🇪 Are we witnessing the last months of a relatively free Georgia, and will the October election be the final step before the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party changes Georgia to a Russian-leaning autocracy forever?
🧵What’s at stake? Will Georgia be Belarusianized?
1/25

Since its rise to power in 2012, the Georgian Dream party has systematically taken control of key institutions, including the judiciary, education system, and regulatory bodies like the National Bank and Central Election Commission.
2/25

The judiciary, once a symbol of independence, has been filled with judges loyal to the party. This has compromised the impartiality of the courts, leading to politically motivated rulings. ⚖️
3/25
theguardian.com/world/2023/apr…

In education, reforms have aimed at increasing state control over universities, undermining academic freedom. This includes appointing politically aligned rectors and reducing funding for institutions that oppose the Georgian Dream's views. 🎓
4/25
civil.ge/archives/574287

Regulatory bodies, such as the National Bank, have seen leadership changes to individuals with close ties to Ivanishvili. This ensures that financial regulations align with the interests of the ruling party, stifling economic dissent. 💰
5/25

Even the Central Election Commission has not been spared. Allegations of election rigging and administrative bias have marred recent elections, casting doubt on the legitimacy of the electoral process. 🗳️
6/25
civil.ge/archives/541296

Georgian Dream has also gained control over the media, both through ownership of major outlets and regulatory influence. This media dominance allows them to control the narrative and limit alternative parties' coverage. 📺📰
7/25

One sector remains relatively free: civil society. 🌍 NGOs, advocacy groups, and independent organizations have continued to function as spaces for free expression and democratic engagement.
8/25

The introduction of the "foreign agent" law poses a direct threat to these remaining free institutions. This law mandates stringent regulations on organizations receiving foreign funding, reminiscent of Russia's oppressive legislation. 📜
9/25

Proponents of the law argue it’s necessary for transparency, likening it to US regulations. However, Professor Gutbrod, at Ilia State University in Tbilisi, points out a critical difference: Georgian NGOs are already among the most transparent in the world. 🕵️‍♂️
10/25

NGOs like Transparency International Georgia provide detailed funding information online. The law’s real intent appears to be stifling dissent and undermining civil society, rather than promoting genuine transparency.
11/25
transparency.ge/en

The law allows the GD to impose severe fines and intrusive oversight on civil society organizations, extending to private schools, animal charities, and disability support groups. A particularly troubling aspect of the law is its arbitrariness. ⚖️
12/25

With elections in October, the law appears strategically designed to silence alternative parties and critical voices ahead of the vote. Despite massive protests, the Georgian Dream party remains steadfast in its course, thereby eliminating the last free sector of Georgia.
13/25

Georgian Dream’s narrative portrays the party as defenders of tradition and order against an opposition it paints as chaotic and influenced by foreign powers.
This divisive rhetoric deepens societal fractures.
14/25

Youth-driven protests against the foreign agent law have brought Georgia to the brink of a political revolution, energizing Generation Z and creating a formidable force against Georgian Dream’s agenda.
15/25

Jack Goldstone, a leading US scholar of revolutionary movements, outlines conditions for political revolution—perception of an unjust government, broad-based citizen mobilization, elite defections, and lack of international support—are evident in Georgia.
daviscenter.fas.harvard.edu/insights/persp…

Despite these pressures, Georgian Dream leverages significant advantages: the electoral threshold, a divided alternative parties, media dominance, and control of the Central Election Commission.
17/25

Georgian Dream's media and social media dominance allows it to control the narrative and overshadow alternative parties' voices. Their unlimited resources flood the airwaves and online platforms with pro-party messaging.
18/25

Georgian Dream’s control of the Central Election Commission further tilts the playing field, allowing potential manipulation of election procedures and outcomes. This strategic control is a significant advantage.
19/25

Professor Hans Gutbrod @HansGutbrod, at Ilia State University in Tbilisi, Georgia, in a conversation with Sergej Sumlenny @sumlenny, highlights the alarming takeover of Georgian society by the Georgian Dream party and its leader, pro-Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili.

The future of Georgia hinges on whether civil society and the mobilized youth can overcome these challenges and push for democratic change.
The coming months will be crucial in determining the country’s direction.
21/25

Alternative parties are negotiating, as we tweet, to form joint lists since blocs are not allowed. They are debating whether to have one list, as suggested by the largest alternative party, or two or three lists, which some believe would increase their chances.
22/25

If the alternative parties fail to unite and merge into fewer lists, up to 30% of the votes could be wasted on parties falling below the 5% threshold. This division would secure the continued power of the pro-Russian party, GD, and give Bidzina Ivanishvili another victory.
23/25

If not, Georgia risks becoming increasingly Belarusianized, and the duration of this influence remains uncertain.
The main question now is: Will Gen-Z mobilize enough to remove Georgian Dream, and will the alternative parties set aside their differences and cooperate?
24/25

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@HansGutbrod @sumlenny