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Prune60 Profile picture
@Prune602
Jun 19 • 23 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
‼️ Russian Government Bond Update Thread

🍿 Buckle in for the bad news…

(or good news, depending on your point of view) Image
If you aren’t familiar with what’s going on, I strongly recommend you read this thread.

(Trust me, you want to in order to understand the pickle the Russian Ministry of Finance is in)
What else happened…

The Russian Ministry of Finance website was one of the websites that was taken down
In what was reportedly a DDoS attack.

Since then, I haven’t been able to get on the Ministry of Finance’s website.
So as far as updating the thread on the liquid assets, I can tell you they sold more gold from reporting. 4.6 tons of it. It’s definitely getting smaller.
At the Russian Central Bank Meeting we learned that the began considering and EVEN HIGHER Key Rate than before.

Previously staying at 16% or raising to 17% were the only options, now raising to 18% was considered and will be considered at the July meeting.
The next Russian Central Bank meeting is currently scheduled for 26 July 2024, but they do have the option to hold an emergency meeting

I would say that the probability of the Key Rate increasing is still high. “Official” inflation has even increased.
Update: “Official” Inflation in Russia increased again. It’s now:

👉 8.46%

moscowtimes.ru/2024/06/19/upd…
Image
Russian Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov said that they would definitely resume hold OFZ (Bond) auctions.

“the increased volatility is considered over”

Of course I couldn’t determine WHEN the next auction was scheduled because I can’t access the website…which isn’t great? 😂
I mean we’re talking about a Federal Bond auction…and that data can’t be accessed. For a country the size of Russia. YIKES!

Maybe I’m the only one blocked? If so, that seems pretty petty/weak. What threat am I?

🇷🇺: 😱 She has a Twitter account!
They did hold an OFZ auction though, and what happened?
“On June 19, the Russian Ministry of Finance declared the auction for the sale of OFZ-PD series 26245 invalid due to the lack of applications at acceptable price levels”

😬 That was the first auction

interfax.ru/business/967169
Image
The Russian Ministry of Finance carried out a second auction, this one with a floating rate and managed to raise 20.7 Billion Rubles (series PK-29025)

moscowtimes.ru/2024/06/19/obo…
Image
It doesn’t look like there was that much interest. But the Russian Ministry decided to hold a 3rd auction of the series PK-29025 “floaters” the results of which have not yet been announced.

Are you ready for the REALLY BAD NEWS!? Image
‼️ “In the second quarter, the Russian Ministry of Finance planned to attract 1 trillion rubles at face value on the ruble government debt market, and so far it has fulfilled 44% of the quarterly plan (444.3 billion rubles), with only one auction day remaining.”

🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿 Image
In order for Russia to meet its 2nd Quarter goals to finance Russian Government, they:

👉 Have one auction day
👉 To get over (probably) over 550 Billion Rubles
👉 When THIS auction day only netted them 20.7 Billion Rubles (that we know of)
MUAHAHAHAHA!
Note: We don’t know the results of the 3rd auction yet, but with these results…I’m not optimistic about the results. It’s a matter scale here.
Russia’s earnings are down and they just got hit with some new Sanctions
How are they going to pay for all the things? That National Welfare Fund won’t last forever.

😊
*per usual
It was bothering me that I didn’t give more detail on what I have found on the status of the National Welfare fund. And thus the source on my gold statement, so here it is:

moscowtimes.ru/2024/06/05/lik…

Image
I feel better now 😇

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More from @Prune602

Prune60 Profile picture
Jun 15
‼️ “The authorities may again limit the export of diesel fuel from Russia”

vedomosti.ru/business/artic…
Image
Previously, Novak had a chat with the Oil Refineries about this. Essentially, they’ve been told how much can be exported (wouldn’t want to mess with Russia’s inflation rate)

But they didn’t manage to control the domestic people the refineries sold to, and THEY’RE exporting it.
Russia had the same problem last year.

mk.ru/social/2024/06…
Image
Read 8 tweets
Prune60 Profile picture
Jun 2
‼️ Russian Railway Thread BEHIND THE SCENES SPECIAL 😂

I thought I’d explain what’s happening
As previously noted, I’ve been over loaded with news
So due to trying to get it all out before the Central Bank meeting, I have been updating railway news here
Read 146 tweets
Prune60 Profile picture
May 29
‼️ Russian Railway & Coal updates

*Railways AND/OR Coal

I’m going to be compiling some new information in this this thread as I get time. So much news is happening it hard to keep up. (So much of what’s happening with coal is related to transport, so they go together) Image
Here is where we left off with Railways. You’ll need to read through this to catch up.
Also a lot of you saw this, but some how missed the reveal, and have been asking me about it
Read 36 tweets
Prune60 Profile picture
May 28
‼️ Russian Agriculture Update

There’s been a lot more bad news, and much of it is still related to frost damage. Image
Note: There has been a lot of news recently so I am going to be updating this thread with multiple news articles probably for the next few days. So you’ll want to check back for updates.

Remember you have a bookmark feature available.
If you are new, and you are completely unfamiliar with where we are, it is really important that you start by reading this thread.
Read 110 tweets
Prune60 Profile picture
May 28
‼️ India Pharmaceuticals

I’m trying to clean up some of my long list of open articles on my phones, and this one is few days old, but it’s a topic I get asked a lot about
“"India plays an important role in the global pharmaceutical industry"”

So why is Russia having medicine shortages? Why don’t they just get it from India.

kommersant.ru/doc/6711508
Image
Look, the article is aspirational, all it’s doing is putting out the data on what India can offer.

And they have a point, India can and does produce pharmaceuticals at scale! That isn’t the problem.
Read 33 tweets
Prune60 Profile picture
May 25
Russian Bond Thread

There is a bit of an issue I’ve been seeing the related to Russia’s Finances. So I wanted to bring it up so you can connect the dots. Image
Before I start, it’s always important to pay attention to the difference between

👉 Causation

&

👉 Correlation

With Russia, often the best we can get to is correlation, with causation being likely. Lots of stuff is hidden/classified, lots of lying, etc.
Many of things I’m going to point to will be correlations that *might* be causation.

I’m going to try to keep this thread shortish, so I’m going to point you to threads to read as we go for bits of this.

And I’ll tell you when I’m done with the thread.

Here we go!
Read 26 tweets

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