Prune60 Profile picture
Electrical/Power Systems Engineer, Internationally Recognized Queen of Anglo-Saxonia, ✏️*sigh* there will be typos, and spontaneous threads
Daniel O'Donnell Profile picture Karen Salitis 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇺🇲 Profile picture Eyckelenburgher Profile picture Steen Lyth Profile picture fred feller Profile picture 9 subscribed
Jul 24 32 tweets 10 min read
‼️ Russian OFZ Federal Bond Update Thread

👉 for Q3 Auction Day 4 (24 July 2024)

The Key Rate is expected to increase on 26 July 2024.

This is likely why the Constant Coupon auction failed. The Variable Rate Coupon was placed.

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I discussed so changes I need to make to my data in this thread earlier. I recommend reading it. None of the changes were that significant.

Again, I’m having to do detective work since the 🇷🇺 Ministry of Finance has blocked most of us

👉

Frustrating minfin.gov.ru/ru/
Jul 24 11 tweets 4 min read
‼️ Update: The Constant Coupon placement was declared invalid (canceled) as we expected it would be.

The Variable Rate coupon was placed.

👉 46.527 Billion Rubles worth
At 96.2141% of face value.

Demand for it remained fairly steady. I still can’t access the 🇷🇺 Min of Finance’s website & it appears that the trend of Russian websites publishing less data is continuing.

The ONLY consistent publication I’ve found with this data has been the Moscow Times.
Jul 24 7 tweets 3 min read
‼️ “Toyota Land Cruiser Prado explodes in Moscow with man and woman inside”

The man was reportedly injured in the legs

fontanka.ru/2024/07/24/738…
Image The vehicle “exploded in the parking lot of a residential building on Sinyavinskaya Street in northern Moscow”

The man reportedly “had his feet torn off” Image
Jul 21 18 tweets 6 min read
‼️ Russian Economy/OFZ Update and a look at the Week ahead:

I’m going to try to keep this brief. First of all, READ ALL IF THIS, it is accurate. I had promised to provide sources so here they are:







interfax.ru/business/971180
moscowtimes.ru/2024/07/17/obo…
moscowtimes.ru/2024/07/17/min…
moscowtimes.ru/2024/07/17/min…
Jul 19 37 tweets 10 min read
I just read an interview that was terrifying in the shear number of lies it told and possible signals it might be sending for the future 😱 I’m not quite sure how to respond to it yet, because in order to understand the massive lies, to see the warning signs I’m seeing, you’ll have to have read a lot of my threads in ADVANCE.

And I’m not sure that many people have time/attention span.
Jul 18 8 tweets 3 min read
‼️ “In Russia, colleges and universities may be prohibited from using foreign software when training in construction specialties.”

👉 Including Autodesk

moscowtimes.ru/2024/07/18/vro…

Image So there is something I want to point out about this. This sort of thing has been listed as a contributing factor to Russian leaving the country.

If you can’t/won’t let people be/remain competent in global standards it isolates your ability to collaborate globally.
Jul 17 32 tweets 10 min read
‼️ Russia: “Government investment in infrastructure fell sharply in the first half of the year”

Yikes…This is going to be a thread.

It’s something I want to you pay attention to because I think you’ll find it as a good reflection of…EVERYTHING

kommersant.ru/doc/6836788
Image So, a few things to keep in mind specifically as we go through this.

I’ve written several threads where we’ve seen that the Russian economy is not doing well.

I did that whole thread about the 3 phases of the economy and we’re now in Phase 3.
Jul 16 32 tweets 8 min read
‼️ Russian Railways Update Thread!

🍿 There’s some interesting news! Image It’s been a bit since I did one of these big threads. It’s getting hard to follow. 😅.

I’ll try to summarize.

I think this was one of the last big ones that IS relevant to this. (I mean they’re all relevant, but this is important to keep in mind.
Jul 13 129 tweets 30 min read
‼️ Russian Economy Thread / Update

It’s getting even harder to get information and I STILL can’t access the Russian Ministry of Finance’s website!

👉

This is a huge red flag.

But I do have some interesting data to share! minfin.gov.ru/ru/
Image I expect this thread to be long (not the longest ever by my standards) but it will take a little while to explain it so you understand what is going on.

So remember you can use your bookmark.
Jul 11 29 tweets 9 min read
‼️ Thread

Russia: “The exchange rate calculation is losing credibility”

Pay attention to this!

kommersant.ru/doc/6822609

Image A few things to point out before we continue.

Previously I had written this small thread to warn you about Russian data moving forward. This going to relevant, 👇
Jul 9 14 tweets 5 min read
‼️ Russia’s National Welfare Fund Liquid Assets

I still can’t access the Russian Ministry of Finances website

👉

But I decided to use what data I still happened to have to make some charts to reflect what has happened to the funds!minfin.gov.ru/ru/ *DISCLAIMER: Here is what the spreadsheet looks like. You’ll notice that there is typically a small amount (comparatively speaking) of rubles in the liquid assets.

I can’t confirm what is there anymore so I left them off, but just know that there is something there
Jul 4 4 tweets 2 min read
‼️ 🇷🇺 RUSSIA KEY RATES

I made a basic chart of Russia’s Key Rate decisions from 2021 until now.

Note: A key rate hike of 18% OR HIGHER is EXTREMELY likely at the 26 July 2024 meeting Image The number 20% is even being discussed, which was the knee jerk hike immediately following the invasion.

Here is the table. I added the dates for the currently SCHEDULED meetings for the rest of 2024.

The dates in red are the unscheduled/emergency meetings. Image
Jul 4 19 tweets 6 min read
‼️ PAY ATTENTION TO THIS

“The Bank of Russia Congress discussed systemic problems of the Russian economy”

And they said many of the same things I’ve been warning you about, and that Elvira has warned about previously & the government has ignored!

kommersant.ru/doc/6806473
Image There was a gathering in St. Petersburg where many came to talk.

Elvira Nabiullina (head of the Central Bank) basically told everyone that they need to work on fixing the root causes of problems instead of quick (and damaging) fixes/coverups Image
Jul 3 9 tweets 3 min read
‼️ “VTB President Andrey Kostin believes that the topic of international settlements should be kept secret. According to him, otherwise Western countries will take new steps to stop them.”

You don’t want people to know about the QR code plan?

🇷🇺: 😡

kommersant.ru/doc/6806588

Image This is a weird justification, because the U.S. (together with its allies) clearly has strong intelligence gathering capabilities.

In order to set up “cross-border payments” you have to negotiate them with the people on the OTHER SIDE of the border.
Jul 3 8 tweets 2 min read
I’ll try to write a thread later with details and sources but, here’s the gist of what happened quickly

👉 I STILL can’t access the Russian Ministry of Finance’s website, which is still a red flag. So we’re still going to be piecing data together from reports. 👉 Russia has 13 days of OFZ (bond) auctions planned for Q3 where it has a GOAL of placing 1.5 Trillion rubles. It placed barely over 0.5 Trillion during Q2 even though its goal was 1 trillion

👉 Today was first of the 13 auction days spread through Q3, and both were held
Jun 27 355 tweets >60 min read
‼️ Russian Bonds & Other Bad Economic News Thread.

I have a feeling this is going to be long, so you might want to bookmark this.

Also some history? Image First, I recommend you read the previous information. Follow the links to associated thread
Jun 26 10 tweets 2 min read
🚨 Warning about Russian Data 🚨

I wanted to give you warning about something to pay attention to as things progress.

I have an imperfect story to explain what I’m talking about, so stay with me. My grandfather suffered for many years from Alzheimer’s before he died. But a few days before he passed, he came back to himself and he was with us again and completely cognizant of who we were.

(It was many years ago and he led a full life)
Jun 26 6 tweets 2 min read
‼️ Russian industrialists’ optimism hits 17 MONTH LOW

Pay attention to this because I’m going to reorder the data in the article so you can see the lie.

kommersant.ru/doc/6790915
Image The Russian Central Bank has pointed out that there are increased costs for

- labor
- raw materials
- materials
- components
- transportation

So pretty much everything Image
Jun 25 6 tweets 2 min read
‼️ “The Russian Ground Forces and the Royal Cambodian Army signed a memorandum of understanding”

Doesn’t sound like much of anything really. And the next quote isn’t a ringing endorsement either.

kommersant.ru/doc/6789363
Image “Cambodia has always opposed the aggression of other countries, but Cambodia is not against cooperation with the Russian military. The Kingdom does not discriminate in cooperation; it also cooperates with the armed forces of the United States and Western countries,”

~ Ian Peu Image
Jun 19 23 tweets 7 min read
‼️ Russian Government Bond Update Thread

🍿 Buckle in for the bad news…

(or good news, depending on your point of view) Image If you aren’t familiar with what’s going on, I strongly recommend you read this thread.

(Trust me, you want to in order to understand the pickle the Russian Ministry of Finance is in)
Jun 15 8 tweets 3 min read
‼️ “The authorities may again limit the export of diesel fuel from Russia”

vedomosti.ru/business/artic…
Image Previously, Novak had a chat with the Oil Refineries about this. Essentially, they’ve been told how much can be exported (wouldn’t want to mess with Russia’s inflation rate)

But they didn’t manage to control the domestic people the refineries sold to, and THEY’RE exporting it.