Niall Ferguson Profile picture
Jun 20, 2024 18 tweets 5 min read Read on X
.@JonahDispatch's response to my "Late-Soviet America" piece acknowledges that most of my argument is true but then says: "We're a non-evil empire; people want to come here, not leave; and we could fix all our problems if we just applied our founding principles." It's pure cope. 1/18
A chronic soft budget constraint in the public sector. Constantly growing state intervention in the economy. A military that is vast yet loses wars. Gerontocratic leadership. Millions succumbing to “deaths of despair.” Total public cynicism about nearly all institutions. 2/18 thefp.com/p/were-all-sov…
And a bogus ideology that hardly anyone really believes in, but everyone has to parrot. These are deeply unhealthy trends. Saying, "Yes, but we don't shoot the accused after our political trials, we're only a banana republic," is desperate stuff. 3/18
"But people love America, see how they flock here!" An alternative formulation would be: Neither the late Soviet Union nor the late-Soviet USA were capable of even the rudimentary state function of policing their borders. 4/18 Image
And somehow I forgot to mention that people love being Americans so much that we have to lock 1.77m of them up ... No, I didn't call it the American gulag, but our criminal justice system isn't exactly a great ad for the Land of the Free, is it? 5/18 Image
The bottom line is that we need to be much more worried than we are by the shocking degeneration of all our institutions, from the presidency to the public health system. The idea of late-Soviet America is intended to shock people like @JonahDispatch out of their cope. 6/18 thefp.com/p/were-all-sov…
Exhibit A (7/18) Image
Exhibit B (8/18) Image
Exhibit C (9/18) Image
Exhibit D (10/18) Image
Exhibit E (11/18) Image
Exhibit F (12/18) Image
Exhibit G (13/18) Image
Exhibit H (14/18) Image
Exhibit I (15/18) Image
Exhibit J (16/18) Image
Exhibit K (17/18) Image
Exhibit L (18/18) Image

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More from @nfergus

Jan 24
There is a rapidly forming narrative in the European and liberal media that the Europeans “won Davos”: primarily by getting Trump to “de-escalate” his demand that the United States acquire Greenland from Denmark. 1/8
This is a very wrong take. The reality is that Trump won Davos, hands down. And not only did he win it; he owned it. I have never before seen a single individual so completely dominate this vast bazaar of the powerful, the wealthy, the famous, and the self-important. 2/8
Trump never seriously meant to annex Greenland or to impose new tariffs on the Europeans. Why would he when the U.S. already enjoys all the military access to the frigid island it could every possibly need? Fact: Trump means what he says on Truth Social only about half the time. 3/8
Read 9 tweets
Jan 4
"The ejection of Maduro from Caracas is best understood as an invitation to turn the political clock back just over a century. The more I contemplate the contemporary scene, the more I think we have collectively accepted the invitation." 1/5
"Foreign policy is just one area where we’re attempting to turn back time. Tariffs, the price of groceries, immigration restriction, antisemitism, socialism, corruption, vaccines, arms races: The issues of our time are issues our great-grandfathers debated 120 years ago." 2/5
"You may insist that the world of today is unrecognizably different from the world of, say, 1906 because technology has changed everything. To my eyes, the striking thing is how little difference all the new technology has made to the nature of politics." 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Nov 23, 2025
I have been to Ukraine every year since 2011. I warned that war was coming in late 2021 and early 2021 and when it came I warned that Ukraine could not hope to win a protracted conflict. No doubt busy people cannot read all that I write, but here are the key pieces. 1/10
"Putin’s Ukrainian War Is About Making Vladimir Great Again. Current conditions are ideal for a Russian invasion, but the historical inspiration is more tsarist than soviet." (Jan. 2, 2022) 2/10 bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
"The Fates of Ukraine and Putin Turn on 7 Forces of History. Does Russia grind out victory? Can sanctions stop that? Might Putin go nuclear? Is China for war or peace? The past offers clues, but no certain answers."
(March 9, 2022) 3/10 bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Read 10 tweets
Nov 21, 2025
The best is the enemy of the good. Contrary to recent press speculation, the draft 28-point plan for peace in Ukraine is in fact a reasonable basis for negotiations. Journalists can gripe about it as they griped about the 20-point Gaza plan. But wars are not ended by op-eds. 1/5
Wars are ended either by victory or by compromise. This plan affirms Ukraine's sovereignty. It provides Ukraine with a US-backed security guarantee. It envisages Ukrainian reconstruction. Of course, the territorial terms and the amnesty for war crimes are hard to swallow. 2/5
⁠But if you want to take back territory and try Putin, you have to win the war. And realistically Ukraine has never been in a position to defeat Russia. The critics should also acknowledge that President Trump has taken some risk here. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Nov 18, 2025
"Two things can be true at the same time: a) the data centers to power AI could be as economically worthwhile an investment as railroads, and b) we could still experience at least one stock market crash along the way to its general adoption." 1/10
"OpenAI is not quite 10 years old. Its flagship product, ChatGPT, is only three years old, and its burn rate (the amount of money it loses each quarter) may be the highest in history. How does Altman propose to pay for 250 gigawatts of new computing capacity?" 2/10
"The answer is only partly by taking out bank loans ($4 billion to date). The rest of it involves debt of another kind—from just about everyone else in the AI game." 3/10
Read 10 tweets
Sep 25, 2025
The war of the future is already here—and you are not sufficiently scared of it. Unless, that is, you are Ukrainian. 1/9
Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine is now in its fourth year. Since February 2022, the country has cycled through three wars. First it was a tank war. Then it became an artillery war. Now, however, it’s almost entirely a drone war. The question is how well Europeans understand this. 2/9
Ask any of the Ukrainian drone operators and they will tell you: This war is a massive multiplayer game in which the characters you kill cannot respawn. 3/9
Read 9 tweets

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