Niall Ferguson Profile picture
Jun 20, 2024 18 tweets 5 min read Read on X
.@JonahDispatch's response to my "Late-Soviet America" piece acknowledges that most of my argument is true but then says: "We're a non-evil empire; people want to come here, not leave; and we could fix all our problems if we just applied our founding principles." It's pure cope. 1/18
A chronic soft budget constraint in the public sector. Constantly growing state intervention in the economy. A military that is vast yet loses wars. Gerontocratic leadership. Millions succumbing to “deaths of despair.” Total public cynicism about nearly all institutions. 2/18 thefp.com/p/were-all-sov…
And a bogus ideology that hardly anyone really believes in, but everyone has to parrot. These are deeply unhealthy trends. Saying, "Yes, but we don't shoot the accused after our political trials, we're only a banana republic," is desperate stuff. 3/18
"But people love America, see how they flock here!" An alternative formulation would be: Neither the late Soviet Union nor the late-Soviet USA were capable of even the rudimentary state function of policing their borders. 4/18 Image
And somehow I forgot to mention that people love being Americans so much that we have to lock 1.77m of them up ... No, I didn't call it the American gulag, but our criminal justice system isn't exactly a great ad for the Land of the Free, is it? 5/18 Image
The bottom line is that we need to be much more worried than we are by the shocking degeneration of all our institutions, from the presidency to the public health system. The idea of late-Soviet America is intended to shock people like @JonahDispatch out of their cope. 6/18 thefp.com/p/were-all-sov…
Exhibit A (7/18) Image
Exhibit B (8/18) Image
Exhibit C (9/18) Image
Exhibit D (10/18) Image
Exhibit E (11/18) Image
Exhibit F (12/18) Image
Exhibit G (13/18) Image
Exhibit H (14/18) Image
Exhibit I (15/18) Image
Exhibit J (16/18) Image
Exhibit K (17/18) Image
Exhibit L (18/18) Image

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More from @nfergus

Apr 28
@realDonaldTrump returned to power with the most consequential to-do list in American history. And, in his first 100 days back in the White House, Trump has crushed that list. 1/8
You are entitled to criticize President Trump—and I do, regularly. But you cannot accuse him of overpromising and underdelivering. 2/8
The question, as we look beyond the first 100 days, is how far can a chronically understaffed administration with wafer-thin majorities in Congress achieve a counterrevolution in government while at the same time pursuing a parallel counterrevolution in U.S. trade policy? 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Mar 6
"The reality is that the agreement that didn’t get signed on Friday is more a matter of symbolism than economics. The mineral rights Ukraine would give the United States are worth not very much; the security guarantees America would give Ukraine are worth even less."
@nkumleben and I take a close look at the much misunderstood U.S.-Ukraine deal on minerals (the one that didn't get signed last Friday). Yes, it's a material world, but rare earths aren't all that rare, and some minerals are a lot more critical than others.
Europeans make the mistake of regarding Trump as an overmighty would-be emperor. In fact, he is actuated by a nagging sense of weakness. He must either strike enough deals around the world to power and equip his country’s economy, or face an unacceptable level of dependence on China, the most powerful industrial and military foe the US has ever faced.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 18
"For a man who is said to have his eye on the Nobel Peace Prize, President Donald J. Trump sure is spoiling for a fight." 1/9
"The latest attempt to start a fight—and by the looks of it, the most successful so far— took place at the usually dull Munich Security Conference on Valentine’s Day, when Vice President J. D. Vance ... accused the Europeans of being the new Soviets." 2/9
"The foreign policy of the Trump administration has, as the physicists say, emergent properties, because it is the product of a highly complex system still in the process of formation. This has the commentators understandably bamboozled." 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Feb 10
The idea that history magically stopped being about empires in 1945 is one of the central conceits of the "liberal international order." This @gideonrachman column suggests that the empire is back. But did it ever go away?
The central argument of my book "Colossus" was that the Cold War was a contest between two empires, each of which claimed it was not an empire, but that the other was engaged in imperialism. amazon.com/Colossus-Rise-…
The simple truth that many people struggle to grasp is that most history is the history of empires. What varies is the extent to which they are constrained by religion, by civilization, and by laws.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 31
My first essay for @thetimes: "To this day, FDR still holds the record for the largest number of executive orders in the first hundred days of a presidency ... But that record is about to be broken by Trump 2.0." 1/7
"The way to think about Trump 2.0 is as the New Deal reversed. If FDR began the vast expansion of federal agencies that continued in the 1960s and 1970s, DJT is attempting to turn back the clock: to shrink the federal bureaucracy with a barrage of presidential decrees." 2/7
"In their own right, the five anti-DEI executive orders, which end not just DEI but also the 60-year-old policy of affirmative action, represent a counter-revolution in government of historic significance, as Christopher Caldwell pointed out in @TheFP." 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Jan 9
This is a truly brilliant essay by @AllisonPearson It will force you to think again about the epidemic of pedophile rape that so many people, from lowly coppers to mighty ministers, did not want to talk about.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/0…
I have long said that the thing people don't understand about England is that class matters more than race. That is one of the things this horrific saga illustrates. Another is that the British Establishment's default setting is still to hush up scandals.
But the biggest lesson is that Britain's transformation into a multiracial society, though in many respects successful, had a horrific shadow side that very few people had the guts to face.
Read 4 tweets

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