Niall Ferguson Profile picture
Jun 20 18 tweets 5 min read Read on X
.@JonahDispatch's response to my "Late-Soviet America" piece acknowledges that most of my argument is true but then says: "We're a non-evil empire; people want to come here, not leave; and we could fix all our problems if we just applied our founding principles." It's pure cope. 1/18
A chronic soft budget constraint in the public sector. Constantly growing state intervention in the economy. A military that is vast yet loses wars. Gerontocratic leadership. Millions succumbing to “deaths of despair.” Total public cynicism about nearly all institutions. 2/18 thefp.com/p/were-all-sov…
And a bogus ideology that hardly anyone really believes in, but everyone has to parrot. These are deeply unhealthy trends. Saying, "Yes, but we don't shoot the accused after our political trials, we're only a banana republic," is desperate stuff. 3/18
"But people love America, see how they flock here!" An alternative formulation would be: Neither the late Soviet Union nor the late-Soviet USA were capable of even the rudimentary state function of policing their borders. 4/18 Image
And somehow I forgot to mention that people love being Americans so much that we have to lock 1.77m of them up ... No, I didn't call it the American gulag, but our criminal justice system isn't exactly a great ad for the Land of the Free, is it? 5/18 Image
The bottom line is that we need to be much more worried than we are by the shocking degeneration of all our institutions, from the presidency to the public health system. The idea of late-Soviet America is intended to shock people like @JonahDispatch out of their cope. 6/18 thefp.com/p/were-all-sov…
Exhibit A (7/18) Image
Exhibit B (8/18) Image
Exhibit C (9/18) Image
Exhibit D (10/18) Image
Exhibit E (11/18) Image
Exhibit F (12/18) Image
Exhibit G (13/18) Image
Exhibit H (14/18) Image
Exhibit I (15/18) Image
Exhibit J (16/18) Image
Exhibit K (17/18) Image
Exhibit L (18/18) Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Niall Ferguson

Niall Ferguson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @nfergus

Jun 18
I first pointed out that we’re in Cold War II back in 2018. But it only recently struck me that in this new Cold War, we—and not the Chinese—might be the Soviets. 1/13 thefp.com/p/were-all-sov…
A chronic “soft budget constraint” in the public sector, which was a key weakness of the Soviet system? I see a version of that in the U.S. deficits forecast by the Congressional Budget Office to exceed 5% of GDP for the foreseeable future. 2/13
The insertion of the central government into the investment decision-making process? I see that too, despite the hype around the Biden administration’s “industrial policy.” 3/13
Read 13 tweets
Apr 8
"From Deepfakes to Arms Races, AI Politics Is Here." Eight political and geopolitical questions about Artificial Intelligence: 1/9bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
1. Will AI have an adverse impact on the 2024 election? Even when voters are primed to be aware of deepfakes, they do not get better at identifying them—but they do lose trust in real videos. This probably means that the election will generate additional public pressure for regulation, especially if one campaign is seen to be using AI in a nefarious way. 2/9
2. Will AI be curbed by US regulation? Probably not. Congress has a track record of regulating new technologies very slowly. The time between the invention of railroads and the first federal regulation of them was 62 years. For telephones it was 33 years; radio 15; the internet 13. Nuclear energy is the outlier: The lag was just four years. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Mar 10
We used to imagine humanity populating the galaxy. No longer. The end is now in sight for the great human population explosion: 1/9bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
The UN Population Division’s median estimate is that the global population will reach 10.4 billion by the mid 2080s. According to the @IHME_UW, it will peak at a lower level and earlier, at 9.7 billion in 2064. 2/9
This because, all over the world, the total fertility rate (TFR)—the number of live children the average woman bears in her lifetime—has been falling since the 1970s. In one country after another, it has dropped under the 2.1 “replacement rate.” 3/9 Image
Read 9 tweets
Feb 24
Two years ago, Russia invaded Ukraine. Most experts underestimated the probability of that event mainly because they just didn't understand Putin. But I'd seen the "Time of Troublemaking" coming. Here's my essay, "The Godfather," from @TIME, Feb. 15, 2007. Quote: "When I saw him speak at the recent @MunSecConf, the Russian President gave a striking impersonation of Michael Corleone in The Godfather--the embodiment of implicit menace." 1/4Image
Ten years later, Don Corleone had morphed into "Peter the Great" in his own imagination. And that was why I was so sure at the beginning of 2022 that war was coming: 2/4bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
What I underestimated was not only the courage, strength and resolve of the Ukrainian army and people, but also the readiness of the U.S. and Europe to send arms after the initial Russian decapitation attempt had failed. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Feb 11
Are we unable to imagine defeat? It seems clear to me that, if the US allows Ukraine, Israel and/or Taiwan to be overrun by their adversaries, there will be dire consequences for Americans, too. But few people agree. 1/8bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Re-reading Len Deighton’s novel "SS-GB" made me wish someone would write or film "CCP-US." Because imagining defeat can focus the mind on the burning imperative not to lose. 2/8
Here, then, is the movie nobody is going to make. Sometime this year, the Chinese blockade Taiwan — or maybe it’s the Philippines. Or maybe North Korea launches missile against South Korea. But let’s go with Taiwan. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Jan 3
It's not easy to found a new university, as Thomas Jefferson discovered — though it is easier than founding a new republic. The two enterprises have certain things in common. In particular, success depends on constitutional design. 1/22nationalaffairs.com/publications/d…
Modern universities have demonstrated considerable variety in institutional structure. And yet, despite these founding ambitions and diverse designs, a striking convergence in campus cultures has taken place in recent years: the dis-invitation campaigns; the cancellations of dissident voices; the denunciations of heterodox scholars; and the violations of academic freedom by an unholy combination of "woke" students, progressive faculty, and inquisitor-administrators. 2/22
The defining feature of the American university is that its governance structure more closely resembles that of a public for-profit corporation than is true of a British or a German one. It has a board of directors (board of trustees), a chief executive (university president), a management team (the provost and deans), and various stakeholders, of whom the most important are stockholders (donor alumni) and the key employees (star professors). 3/22
Read 22 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(