Thread by @shashj

🧵 I wanted to provide some sources and readings on military AI which helped inform the cover story below.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1803799181259133205

.@SIPRIorg continues to do excellent and rigorous work mapping the autonomous weapon landscape. I think this was the latest, from March 2023, on what the laws of war do and do not permit in this area: sipri.org/publications/2…

This is from @ICRC on AI, decision-making and war. It summarises expert workshops that they held on the topic in 2022. geneva-academy.ch/joomlatools-fi…

This paper by @WriteArthur, also for ICRC, is a very good examination of so-called decision support systems (DSS), used to support commanders in various ways. Less sexy that autonomous weapons, but in many ways more consequential
shop.icrc.org/decisions-deci…

https://x.com/shashj/status/1796478698448998483

This recent report by @WarintheFuture and Clint Hinote is good on the interplay between the "trinity" of drones, new civilian-military sensor networks and "new-era digital command and control systems", which increasingly involve AI of one sort of another. scsp.ai/wp-content/upl…

This by @jonrlindsay offers a historically informed and somewhat sceptical take on the future of human-machine systems. "the problems of implementing information systems in complex national security organizations will continue to grow ever more wicked."
tnsr.org/2023/11/war-is…

This @DefenceHQ/@MOD_DCDC paper on human-machine teaming pre-dates Ukraine (it's from 2018) but correctly points to the now-obvious relationship between the growing use of uncrewed aircraft & demand for AI-enabled autonomy. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5b02f398…

This book by @HurstPublishers has a great chapter by @kennethpayne01 on AI. "They might not be making decisions for us, but increasingly they will be sharing in the constitution of our imagination. To me, that amounts to a change in the nature of war."
hurstpublishers.com/book/beyond-uk…

This set of evidence sessions from @LordsIRCom () is a treasure trove of expertise and insight on the use of AI in weapon systems. I had a few threads on it some weeks ago: committees.parliament.uk/committee/646/…

https://x.com/shashj/status/1795526557580382613

@LordsIRCom The paper below by @SamBresnick is a very helpful survey of Chinese/PLA views on military AI, which are in many ways not dissimilar to American ones, and certainly do not suggest China is racing ahead in this area.

https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/chinas-military-ai-roadblocks/https://x.com/shashj/status/1803360237065273363

The @turinginst recently published an evidence-based report on AI in wargaming. "There were a few bleeding-edge AI applications that interviewees believed could constitute revolutionary innovation to the type of data that can be extracted from a wargame." cetas.turing.ac.uk/sites/default/…

@turinginst RUSI has published a few relevant papers, recently. One is this on human-maching teaming. "Though not a panacea, AI can considerably reduce issues surrounding span of control, much as automation does in the context of integrated air and missile defence" rusi.org/explore-our-re…

@turinginst RUSI: "Militaries that make the transition to HMC and HMT could make decisions and conduct operations more effectively, more quickly, and on a larger scale than organisations that do not, all at a lower human cost" static.rusi.org/human-machine-…

RUSI: "To the extent that functions associated with staffs can be automated, staffs can be shrunk – enabling the control of more capabilities at lower echelons." static.rusi.org/human-machine-…

RUSI: "The history of conflict is punctuated with moments of disruptive change that fundamentally alter the character of warfare." Data, Automation and "new modes of producing physical capabilities could mean that we are on the cusp of such a moment." static.rusi.org/human-machine-…

This is @Katarzyna_Zysk on Russian military AI. "The overall deployment of Russian AI-enabled systems indicates that Russian AI appears to be in the early stages of maturity. The primary focus is on incremental evolution" rusi.org/explore-our-re…

@Katarzyna_Zysk Callum Fraser writing for @IISS_org: "Despite the sophisticated use of AI, technological advantage rarely converts into an enduring battlefield advantage given the dialectal nature of warfare, with both sides adapting and counter-adapting in real-time" iiss.org/online-analysi…

Link to that @SamBresnick paper above was broken, so here it is: cset.georgetown.edu/publication/ch…

Below is a fundamentally sceptical take on military AI, which argues that modern AI just can't do "abductive" reasoning and this can't do real strategy. I don't agree with this conclusion.

https://x.com/shashj/status/1797926054574907656

@sambendett with another assessment of Russian military AI. "Russian military discourse emphasizes that in the long term, there will be an eventual point where technologies subsume and then replace human involvement in military operations" cnas.org/publications/r…

@sambendett "the Russian military establishment still envisions that humans will be in the decision-making and command and control (C2) loop today and in the near future." s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org…