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Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Sep 22

Many people ask why Estonia did not shoot down the Russian MiGs that violated Estonian airspace. It’s very simple. Here is the list of Estonian air-defence assets we have available — ZU-23-2 23mm anti-aircraft cannons, Mistral man-portable surface-to-air missile launchers,
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and Giraffe AMB fire-control radars. The Estonian sky is guarded by NATO air forces on a rotational basis. Right now those are Italian F-35s. Our approach to the Russian threat and Italy’s approach differ greatly. If an Estonian pilot were behind the stick of an F-35, they
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would fire after the first warning without hesitation; Italian air crews will think ten times before shooting down a Russian aircraft over Estonian territory. This is not a criticism of the Italians — they are our loyal allies — but they try to avoid escalation over someone
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Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Sep 19

Small arms manufactured in Russia and their ammunition are being sold to Italian criminal groups, reportedly using Russia’s shadow fleet, Italian outlet Linkiesta writes. Journalists found that new weapons without serial numbers, produced between 2010 and 2020 - including
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assault and sniper rifles - are entering Italy from Russia. This is not a case of erased serial numbers but, according to a source cited by the publication, genuinely new weapons leaving the factory already unmarked. The small arms supplied to Italian groups are said to be
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produced at the Tula Arms Plant. Linkiesta notes that weapons without serial numbers can be removed from factories only with state approval, and this is corroborated by a 2023 Europol report stating that the emergence of new unmarked weapons on the market indicates “forms of
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Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Sep 18

The EU is preparing to transfer most of the frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. The scheme is being developed so that the funds are handed over without formal confiscation. The EU plans to use the frozen assets held in depositories to purchase zero-interest EU bonds, with the
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proceeds directed to Kyiv. Russia would only be able to reclaim the assets if it agrees to pay reparations to Ukraine. The amount in question is around €170 billion. Significantly, countries like Germany, along with France and Belgium—previously concerned that seizing
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Russian assets could undermine trust in the euro as a reserve currency—are now supporting the plan. These fears have eased against the backdrop of political turmoil in the US and the weakening of the dollar. Moreover, with Washington’s reluctance, especially Trump’s
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Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Sep 11

The discussed cancellation of tourist visas for Russians in the new package of European sanctions has caused a wave of outrage among the so-called Russian opposition. Yulia Navalnaya and her team submitted a petition to Brussels, calling to distinguish between “ordinary
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Russians” and the “regime.” The Russian opposition should have long ago stopped being taken seriously. They are not concerned with the fate of Ukraine and they have no sense of responsibility for what is happening in their own country. The only thing that worries them is
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the loss of the ability to live in Europe and enjoy the benefits of the civilized world. Alexei Navalny, it should be reminded, was not against the occupation of Crimea. In fact, the main regret of the Russian opposition is that it is not they who are in power. They are not
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Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Sep 9

The Russian army is facing a gasoline shortage in the occupied regions of Ukraine. About two weeks ago, a shortage of gasoline at gas stations began, and sales to private individuals were restricted. However, the Russian army in these areas often uses civilian gas stations,
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frequently even refueling at its own expense. The reason is constant Ukrainian strikes on logistics. When a fuel truck arrives at the rear, a rush and crowd form, which Ukrainian reconnaissance drones detect and coordinate strikes on. On top of this, there are frequent cases
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of fuel theft and resale on the black market. Resellers take advantage of the gasoline shortage and sell “under the table” for more than 200 rubles per liter, while the usual price at gas stations is 60–70 rubles per liter. The occupation authorities happily integrated into
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Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Sep 8

The economic crisis in Russia is worsening. The budget deficit already amounts to 5 trillion rubles for the first seven months of the year, or 3.4% of GDP. This figure is twice the planned value for the entire year, 1.7% of GDP. Today or tomorrow, data for August will be
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published, and the number will be even higher. The main reason is the decline in oil and gas revenues. For the second month in a row, revenues remain at a record minimum of about 500 billion rubles per month, while 1 trillion rubles are needed to cover planned expenditures.
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The problem for Russia is that they have nothing to cover this deficit. There is increasing talk about the need to lower the key interest rate to revive the economy. Proposals are being made to reduce it to 16%. However, lowering the rate never happens without consequences -
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