1/ A year ago today, Yevgeny Prigozhin launched his failed rebellion against Vladimir Putin. Exactly two months later he died in a suspicious plane crash which has been the focus of a pseudo-investigation by the Russian authorities. What has it found? ⬇️
2/ While Russia has competent air crash investigators, the investigation into the crash of Prigozhin's Embraer Legacy 600 jet, owned by MNT-Aero, has been hindered from the start by the high likelihood that the crash was the result of an assassination ordered by Putin himself.
3/ In October 2023, Putin seemingly pre-judged the results of the investigation by claiming that "hand grenade fragments were found in the bodies of those killed in the plane crash" and insinuating that there may have been "alcohol and drugs" in their blood.
4/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel has recently published a series of reports from inside the investigation. It highlights a range of findings as well as serious irregularities in how the investigation has progressed.
5/ After the aircraft crashed near Kuzhenkino on 23 August 2023, its remains were reportedly dumped in a production workshop at Spetstekhnika JSC, a weapons and ammunition supplier to the Russian Ministry of Defence, about 30 km away in the closed military settlement of Ozyorny.
6/ According to a source, the aircraft parts and debris were "thrown ... literally on the floor in the production area" and is still "lying dead weight" there. It was reportedly recently moved into an unused production workshop to make space for production to resume.
7/ Spetstekhnika's management is said to have "no stamps, instructions, receipts or any documents at all. Requests to get to the bottom of the situation are ignored: MNT-Aero is in bankruptcy, and investigators and special services are only shifting responsibility to each other."
8/ The debris does not include the black boxes, which were reportedly found intact but were seized and classified immediately by the FSB. Investigators are said to have been told to base their conclusions on data from other sources, excluding the flight data recorders.
9/ The contents of the flight data recorders have not been disclosed. The FSB reportedly hired employees of the Aviation Register of Russia to clean them, but strictly prohibited them from looking at the contents.
10/ Investigators were blocked from accessing documentation apart from the pilots' licences at Sheremetyevo Airport, from where the plane took off. An investigator from Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency was only reportedly allowed to interview a few of the ground staff.
11/ The only item of documentation said to have been recovered was a crumpled inspection document for Prigozhin’s plane, which was found on the runway where the plane was parked before departure. For some reason, the crew seem to have thrown it away before departure.
12/ However, this document was reportedly immediately confiscated from the investigators by the FSB. Its significance is unclear. The investigators were also denied access to security camera footage, which could potentially have shown the plane being tampered with.
13/ The investigation is said to have found with a 90% probability that the plane was being subjected to electronic jamming shortly before and during the crash sequence. No mayday call was received from the pilots before it hit the ground.
14/ The wives of several of Prigozhin's bodyguards aboard the plane were talking with their husbands before the crash. They have said that the phone connections simultaneously failed abruptly even before the explosion that brought the plane down.
15/ The explosion happened well before footage was recorded showing the plane falling out of the sky. It was small, but powerful enough to cause the crash. The aircraft left a debris trail nearly 6 km long on the ground as it gradually disintegrated.
16/ According to the experts, the aircraft flew for 3.5 km after the explosion, leaving small pieces of debris on the ground. At that point, the aircraft's overloaded keel beam failed and a wing fell off.
17/ It travelled another 2 km before striking the ground and bursting into flames. The pilots were found in their seats and their bodies were reportedly not damaged by the explosion. They are believed to have remained conscious throughout and likely tried to save the plane.
18/ No drugs, alcohol or grenade fragments are reported to have been found in the passengers' bodies or the wreckage. However, given that Putin has specifically advocated this theory, it seems unlikely that any other conclusion will be allowed.
19/ Notably, the investigative commission is headed by Rosaviatsiya employee Valery Luchinin, who was part of the team which "investigated" the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over Russian-occupied Ukraine in 2014.
20/ As VChK-OGPU puts it, he is "known for his participation in the investigation of many high-profile aircraft accidents and fitting them into the version specified from above."
According to the channel, the investigators have been told they have two options:
21/ "First, on a signal from above, taking into account Putin's statement about cocaine ... and grenades, data will be received, [about] what the results should be.
22/ And, the second, most likely – all materials will be classified forever and the results of the "investigation" will not be made public at all." /end
1/ Injured Russian soldiers report that they are being sent straight back to fighting in Ukraine without any medical treatment or admission to hospitals. Their superiors are unsympathetic: "Fuck you and your fucking splinters! Don't fucking piss me off! I'll fucking kill you!"⬇️
2/ ASTRA reports on the experience of soldiers from several regiments based in the Nizhny Novgorod region. According to Alexander, a Storm V member who is receiving treatment for shrapnel wounds and blast injuries, commanders have issued an order banning sick leave.
3/ "On Friday, a guy from my company was discharged, I told him, go to the unit and find out. He arrived, and he was sent to the Luhansk region to go to the ribbon [the front line]. He’s not combat-ready."
1/ Russian military recruiters are now offering criminal suspects and accused a deal to avoid a trial by going to fight in Ukraine. It's the latest example of how Russia is tackling manpower shortages in the ongoing war by targeting a wider pool of potential recruits. ⬇️
2/ The Russian newspaper Kommersant reports that the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the FSB, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, the Federal Customs Service and even bailiffs are involved in an effort to recruit for the army those suspected or accused of criminal offences.
3/ Physically healthy defendants in criminal cases aged 18 to 65 are promised a suspension and then the termination of the prosecution and the wiping of their criminal records when they have received a medal, the war is over, or they either die or are too injured to fight.
1/ More than 10,000 people have been charged with refusing to serve in the Russian armed forces since 2022, with nearly 8,600 sentences being passed. Cases of refusal are currently setting new records, with as many as 35 verdicts a day in April 2024. ⬇️
2/ Mediazona reports a huge increase in cases since September 2022, when military personnel were forbidden from resigning. They include 9,059 cases of unauthorised abandonment of a unit, 627 cases of failure to comply with an order, and 339 cases of desertion.
3/ Before September 2022, such cases were rare. They have now reached record highs. In May 2024 alone, there were 929 criminal cases of unauthorised abandonment of a unit, failure to comply with an order, and desertion. Up to 35 verdicts have been announced daily.
1/ Unfortunately this is an absolutely predictable consequence of the Kakhovka dam's destruction. Agriculture in Crimea and coastal Ukraine is effectively finished for the foreseeable future.
2/ This will have huge implications for the region. Its economy is largely based on agriculture (developed in Soviet times) - without the canals fed from the dam it's an arid near-desert. With no work and no water, much of the population will have to leave.
3/ The ecology developed over the last 70 years will largely disappear too. When the topsoil is dried out, it'll blow away in the dust storms that used to plague the region before it was irrigated by the canals. Even when (if) the dam is restored, it'll take decades to undo that.
1/ Major General Ivan Popov, recently arrested by Russia's FSB on charges of fraud, reportedly believes he was set up by his former superior General Valery Gerasimov after selling scrap metal to raise funds for his troops.
2/ According to a source cited by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel:
"After Shoigu was removed from the post of defense minister, Popov refused the option offered to him earlier to resign for health reasons.
3/ "Popov argued that he believed that Gerasimov, the chief of the General Staff, who was the main organizer of the harassment against Popov, would be the next to resign.
1/ A Russian soldier who says he was raped by African mercenaries in Ukraine asks for advice:
"Hello. I ask anonymously.
I am a soldier of a motorised rifle brigade, which is currently performing combat missions in the Kharkov region.
2/ "I thought for a long time whether to write about it at all, but finally decided to do it. In general, I don't know how to say it properly. I was raped. It happened a week ago. We were already in the [Special Military Operation] area. They sent Africans with us.
3/ "We realized right away that we couldn't trust these cocksuckers. They don't speak Russian, they always stay aloof, and it's not clear what they have in mind. One day it so happened that I was resting after my shift, and other guys from my unit went on a mission.